According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates, the global EV fleet is set to reach 25 million by the end of the year and 20 million as soon as June. This is a huge leap in numbers from the 17,000 EVs on the road in 2010.
The speed of adoption is also running 10 years ahead of schedule. In BP’s 2016 report, it estimated that there would be 71 million battery and plug-in hybrid EVs on the road by 2035, but according to Bloomberg, this is now set to be achieved by 2025.
These figures come as part of a consistent pattern of growth: in its 2020 Global EV Outlook report, the International Energy Agency (IAE) showed that between 2018 and 2019 there was an astronomical 40% year-on-year increase in electric car sales.
Even though interest in EVs has been swirling since the early seventies – NASA’s 1971 Luna Rover ran on electricity – it’s only since 2010, when the first commercially available plug-in hybrid went on sale, that EVs have begun to grow in popularity.
This makes BNEF’s 20 million figure even more astonishing. Today there are 23 plug-in electric vehicles and 36 hybrid models available. BNEF also predicted that over the next five years passenger EVs are set to increase from 3.1 million to 14 million.
However, Europe and China are driving a lot of this progress, which slightly skews the reality of the international take-up of EVs. According to Bloomberg, of the EV sales so far, China makes up 46% of total sales, Europe 34% while North America accounts for just 15%.
But with over 1 billion cars in the world, the world’s 20 million electric vehicle fleet is just a drop in the ocean. It means that despite the astonishing increase in sales, more needs to be done to meet the ambitious climate plans that have been set out across the globe over the last year in particular.
In the UK, for example, there is now a target in place to make sure all new heavy goods vehicles are zero-emission by 2040. At COP26 in November 2021, there was also a group commitment laid out to accelerate the transition to 100% zero-emission cars and vans.
“Despite the expected rapid rise in EV sales, most countries are still not on track to bring road transport emissions to zero by mid-century,” said the BNEF report.
Nevertheless, despite further global take-up of EVs being necessary, BNEF projections still look extremely positive. Already, EVs are displacing the demand for 1 million barrels of oil every day. By 2050 this figure is set to rise to as many as 21 million barrels of oil every day.
