Twenty-four European Union countries complained to the U.S. State Department this week over President Donald Trump’s expansive use of sanctions to help influence American foreign policy goals, according to a European diplomat familiar with the communication.

The message, supported by all but three of the bloc’s member states, was given on Wednesday, said the diplomat, who asked not to be identified because the correspondence hasn’t been made public.

Read More: U.S. Threat of ‘Crushing’ Gas Pipeline Measures Riles Berlin

The so-called demarche was based on a July 17 statement by the EU’s top foreign policy official, Josep Borrell, in which he condemned U.S. intimidation tactics. He specifically cited Trump’s sanctions aimed at halting construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would link Russia and Germany.

“Our actions are aimed at curbing Russia’s malign activity,” according to an emailed statement from a State Department spokesperson. “We continue to work with our European partners to make it clear that Nord Stream 2 enables Russia to use its energy supplies as a political weapon in Europe and undermine Ukrainian security.”

Relations between the U.S. and the EU — and Germany in particular — have plumbed new lows, with Trump hitting his transatlantic allies with sweeping tariffs and pulling out of multilateral agreements such as the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal. Trump also announced plans to withdraw about 12,000 troops from Germany last month, saying Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government had been “delinquent” on defense spending.

‘Illegal’ Sanctions

“There was an informal outreach which the EU member states could join on a voluntary basis,” EU Spokeswoman Nabila Massrali told reporters on Friday when asked about the complaint. She added that the U.S. threatening sanctions against European companies was “part of a wider, worrying trend.”

The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has become a central point of tension between Merkel and Trump, who has blasted the project for sending “billions” to Russia. Merkel has called new sanctions aimed at the gas route illegal. Still, there is no consensus among the EU on Nord Stream, with countries such as Poland condemning the pipeline for bypassing eastern Europe and increasing the bloc’s reliance on Russian energy.

Last week, three Republican Senators ratcheted up tensions with a letter warning that a German Baltic Sea port would face “crushing legal and economic” sanctions if it continued to participate in the completion of the pipeline. Mukran Port, located in Merkel’s constituency, is a supply base for the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) undersea pipeline.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas this week said EU member states would discuss to what extent extraterritorial sanctions violate international law, as he renewed his condemnation of U.S. threats.

“No state has the right to dictate Europe’s energy policy with threats — and it won’t work,” Maas told reporters Monday alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during a daylong visit to Moscow.

All stakeholders of Nord Stream 2 still aim to complete the gas link, Lavrov said at the briefing. “There are reasons to assume that it will be done in the near future.”

OPEC said on Wednesday that world oil demand will fall more steeply in 2020 than previously forecast due to the pandemic and there were uncertainties about next year’s recovery.

World oil demand will fall by 9.06 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, more than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago.

Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus curtailed travel and economic activity. While some countries have eased lockdowns allowing demand to recover, concern over new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices and OPEC expects this to persist.

“Crude and product price developments in the second half of 2020 will continue to be impacted by concerns over a second wave of infections and higher global stocks,” OPEC said in the report.

OPEC stuck to its forecast that in 2021 oil demand would rebound by 7 million bpd but said the view was subject to large uncertainties that may result in “a negative impact on petroleum consumption,” such as demand for air travel, more fuel-efficient cars and more competition from other fuels.

“Almost all forecasters expect jet fuel in 2021 to struggle making up for lost demand,” OPEC said. “Gasoline demand will face pressure to return to 2019 levels.”

To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to a record supply cut of 9.7 million bpd that started on May 1, while the United States and other nations said they would pump less.

In the report, OPEC said its output rose by 980,000 bpd to 23.17 million bpd in July, largely because Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members ended extra voluntary cuts they had made in June.

That amounted to 97% compliance with the pledges, according to a Reuters calculation – lower than June’s figure of well above 100%.

The liquefied natural gas market contracted a third month in July as countries continue to struggle with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Global exports of the fuel last month dropped 9.4% from the previous year, the steepest year-over-year decline since at least December 2017, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest cuts came from the US and Australia. On a monthly basis, exports inched up 2.5% from June levels.
The pandemic has thrown cold water on the fastest-growing fossil fuel, with demand seen possibly extending its decline through 2021. A slew of once-promising export projects are struggling to find financing as the LNG market’s breakneck expansion stalls, threatening a worse supply glut over the next decade.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SE are among the world’s top LNG suppliers, and have invested billions of dollars into export facilities in order to capture the fuel’s burgeoning demand.
Some of the world’s biggest buyers of LNG have struggled to make room for contracted shipments this summer as Covid-19 stalled economic activity and left stockpiles near capacity. This has forced exporters to make the difficult decision to lower output and withhold cargoes from the market in a bid to balance global supplies.
US exports fell about 40% from a year earlier due to customers potentially cancelling over 50 cargoes slated to load from Gulf Coast projects after the arbitrage opportunities to Europe and Asia collapsed.
Spot prices in Asia, the biggest demand region for the fuel, have started to recover from record low levels amid speculation that onset of the winter heating season will boost consumption.
Meanwhile, imports of the fuel fell by 5.1% from a year earlier as Covid-19 measures forced buyers to reduce deliveries. It was the second-straight month for declining imports, after June marked the first year-over-year drop since at least December 2017.
South Korea’s imports for July dropped by more than 800,000 tonnes compared to last year, the most of any nation, as its top buyer requested to delay shipments on high inventory levels. While Japan imported nearly 5.7mn tonnes last month, the most since March, it is still lagging 2019 levels by about 9.3%.

The expected commissioning of Barzan natural gas facility could support domestic gas production and contribute positively to Qatar’s growth, Lloyds Bank has said in an overview.

In the medium term, the expansion of North Field gas projects is expected to be completed by 2024, further boosting gas output, it said.

Qatar has been implementing an economic diversification programme to lower its dependency on the hydrocarbon sector, and in December 2018 the country announced it would leave Opec (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) in January 2019 to focus its efforts on natural gas.

New projects are planned in infrastructure and telecommunications, and various construction projects are in progress in preparation for the World Cup in 2022. Inflation was estimated to have fallen to -0.6% last year from 0.2% in 2018, Lloyds Bank said.

IMF estimated inflation to decrease to -1.2% in 2020 and increase to 2.4% in 2021 in its latest World Economic Outlook of April 2020; indeed, Qatar has postponed plans to introduce a VAT to 2021 the earliest, suggesting inflation will continue to remain weak this year.

Qatar’s economy started to grow faster after the first quarter of 2019 as government spending rose, particularly with regards to wages in the public sector. This helped boost the economy later in the year, which had showed signs of a slowdown as most major infrastructure and construction projects in relation to the World Cup came to completion, it said.

Nonetheless, general government debt was also estimated to have grown to 53.2% of GDP in 2019, from 48.6% a year earlier, as the country continued to borrow in international markets.

The International Monetary Fund anticipates a debt reduction in the coming years, 48% in 2020 and 43.1% in 2021. Current account surplus narrowed to 2.4% of GDP in 2019 from 8.7% a year earlier as global energy prices fell.

However, the IMF expects this trend to be heavily affected by the negative economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the fall in oil prices. The current account balance should be negative in 2020 and 2021 (-1.9% and -1.8%, respectively), Lloyds Bank said.

Qatar is the world’s leading exporter of liquefied natural gas and holds the third largest gas reserves in the world (estimated at 16% of the global total). The country’s economy is thus heavily concentrated in the gas industry, which represents two-thirds of its GDP and almost 80% of export earnings.

Like other Gulf countries, Qatar has been hit by the global decline in oil prices since 2014.

“However, the economic results have been better than that of its neighbours, due to successful economic diversification, namely via the development of large-scale projects,” Lloyds Bank said.

The long-term outlook for Qatar’s second gas boom does not fundamentally change whatever the eventual economic impact of Covid-19 be, on both the energy market and the country’s non-hydrocarbons economy, a new report has shown.

According to PwC, the current crisis may even work to Qatar’s advantage as potential competitors, particularly in the US, delay or cancel major LNG investments.

“The most important economic development in many years was the surprise announcement by Qatar Petroleum in November that new appraisals had extended estimates of both the geographic scope and volume of North Field,” PwC said in the “Qatar Economy Watch”.

The field, which was previously thought to be only offshore, has been found to extend at least 10 miles onshore and the reserves had been increased to 1,760tcf of gas and 70bn barrels of condensates (oil mixed in with the gas).

This is a “doubling” of gas reserves and more than a “tripling” in oil, compared with Qatar’s most recently published estimates. On the basis of the larger reserves, QP upsized its plans for the North Field Expansion project by 50%, to six new LNG trains, which will add 49mn tonnes/year (tpy) of capacity, about a 64% increase on the currently rated capacity of 77mn tpy.

“This is the fourth time the project has been upsized since the 12-year moratorium on new projects was lifted in 2017,” PwC noted.

However, some private firms have cancelled or delayed final investment decisions on new LNG projects as spot prices have dipped to record lows in recent months, threatening their margins and financing, the report noted.

The current crisis is likely to reduce the new supply that comes onstream in the mid-to-late 2020s but the underlying dynamics for demand growth – as gas replaces coal as a cleaner source of baseline electricity generation – remain unchanged.

The previous LNG expansion phase in 2007-2011 provided “significant opportunities” for firms across many sectors involved directly in the project implementation or indirectly providing services.

“Once in place, the boost to Qatar’s fiscal revenue provided wider spillover benefits to the non-oil economy through government spending,” PwC noted.

“Similar impacts are expected in the new expansion phase, which is of a similar magnitude. Even at current production levels, analysis from the IMF and ratings agencies give Qatar the lowest breakeven oil price in the region and the Minister of Finance has said the breakeven price should fall further to under $40 after 2022, even before the new LNG capacity comes online.

“The revenue from the LNG expansion therefore provides clear visibility for Qatar’s long-term finances that enables local firms to develop their post-Covid-19 business plans with minimal risks related to potential changes in tax or spending policy, unlike in other Gulf States where significant changes are required to balance budgets,” PwC said.

Shale explorers parked more rigs last week as oil’s rebound proves insufficient to boost drilling work from the lowest level in more than a decade.
The number of active oil rigs in the US fell by four to 181, the least since June 2009, according to Baker Hughes Co data released on Friday.
With crude still well below its pre-pandemic peak earlier this year, producers are focusing on wells that were already drilled and waiting to be fracked as a cheaper alternative for adding production.
“Declines in drilling activity have continued, though at a decelerating rate in the latter half of” the second quarter, Connor Lynagh, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote last week in a note to investors. But, as activity appears to stabilise, the “recovery path remains a key debate.”
Worldwide lockdowns to prevent the spread of Covid-19 had a devastating impact on crude demand at a time when shale explorers were already struggling with too much debt and shareholders were urging them to spend less. While benchmark US oil futures have roughly doubled to $40 a barrel since the start of May, prices are still down by more than 30% for the year.
The rig count is a closely watched metric because it’s long been considered indicative of future crude production. The relationship is imperfect, however, because of the time lag between drilling a well and commencing production, as well as other factors such as the turning off of existing wells in response to price movements.

من خلال خط يتوسّط الخطّين الأحاديين المعلنين من الطرفين، يتبيّن أنّ من حق لبنان بسط سيادته على رقعة أكبر من تلك التي حدّدها خط هوف، أو التي عرضت خلال المفاوضات مع الجانب الأميركي، ويمكنه بالقانون الاستحصال على ما لا يقل عن %55 من المنطقة المتنازع عليها.

في الأوّل من كانون الثاني 2007، وقّع لبنان وقبرص معاهدة ثنائية لترسيم الحدود المواجهة للدولتين، لكنها لم تقرّ في مجلس النواب اللبناني اعتراضاً على اتفاق ترسيم الحدود البحرية بين قبرص وإسرائيل الموقّع في كانون الأوّل 2010 ولا سيّما النقطة 23 جنوباً، وبالتالي لم تدخل حيّز التنفيذ. يبلغ طول خط الحدود البحرية بين لبنان وقبرص نحو 158.8 كلم ويتألف من 6 نقاط تحوّل أساسية، وحُدِّدت من خلال اعتماد الخط ذاته الإحداثيات المتساوية في المساحة البحرية المواجهة لكل من لبنان وقبرص، واستخدمت مخطّطات بحرية دقيقة وقاعدة بيانات متطوّرة للمعلومات الجغرافية.

في دراسة وضعها الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة الطاقة والبيئة القابضة والخبير في صناعة الطاقة رودي بارودي ونشرها معهد عصام فارس في الجامعة الأميركية، يغوص بارودي في تاريخ ملف ترسيم الحدود البحرية اللبنانية، فلبنان أعلن ترسيماً أحاديّاً لحدوده البحرية الشمالية مع سوريا خلال عملية تقسيم المياه الإقليمية إلى بلوكات، وتمّ ايداع نسخة من الترسيم في مكتب شؤون المحيطات وقانون البحار في الأمم المتّحدة على رغم عدم توقيع سوريا اتفاق الأمم المتحدة لقانون البحار واتفاق جنيف 1958، ويعتقد بارودي الذي تحدث لـ”النهار” أنّه تمّ استخدام قواعد الخط ذات الاحداثيات المتساوية (Strict Equidistance geodetic line) خلال ترسيم الحدود، واعتماد خطوط الأساس العادية (Basic Normal Baselines) للبنان وعلى الأرجح خطوط السواحل (Basic Coastlines) لسوريا.

تظهر الخرائط المرفقة تداخل البلوكات البحرية لكلا البلدين، إذ تخرق البلوكات اللبنانية المياه الإقليمية السورية بنحو 1.7 كلم، فيما تخرق البلوكات السورية المياه الإقليمية اللبنانية بنحو 15.3 كلم، وينتج من ذلك مساحة متداخلة تقدّر بنحو 832 كلم2 بحاجة إلى إعادة ترسيم.

Les différends de frontières maritimes en Méditerranée orientale empêchent l’exploitation raisonnée des récentes découvertes énergétiques dans la région :
un nouveau livre montre comment résoudre pacifiquement les conflits frontaliers maritimes.

L’ouvrage se présente comme une feuille de route pour aider les pays côtiers à exploiter les ressources offshore

Un nouveau livre de l’expert en politique de l’énergie Roudi Baroudi met en lumière des mécanismes souvent négligés qui pourraient aider à désamorcer les tensions et débloquer des milliards de dollars en pétrole et en gaz.

“Maritime Disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean: the Way Forward” («Différends Maritimes en Méditerranée Orientale: Comment en Sortir») -distribué par Brookings Institution Press- décrit le vaste cadre juridique et diplomatique dont disposent les pays qui cherchent à résoudre les conflits de frontières maritimes. Dans ce livre, M. Baroudi passe en revue l’émergence et l’influence (croissante) de la Convention des Nations unies sur le droit de la mer (CNUDM), dont les règles et les normes sont devenues la base de pratiquement toutes les négociations et de tous les accords maritimes. Il explique également comment les progrès récents de la science et de la technologie, notamment dans le domaine de la cartographie de précision, ont accru l’impact des lignes directrices de la CNUDM en éliminant les conjectures de tout processus de règlement des différends fondé sur celles-ci.

Comme le titre l’indique, l’ouvrage se concentre en grande partie sur la Méditerranée orientale, où les récentes découvertes de pétrole et de gaz ont souligné le fait que la plupart des frontières maritimes de la région restent discutées. L’incertitude qui en résulte ralentit non seulement l’utilisation des ressources en question (et le réinvestissement des recettes pour lutter contre la pauvreté et d’autres problèmes de société), mais augmente également le risque d’un ou plusieurs conflits meurtriers. M. Baroudi fait toutefois remarquer que, tout comme ces problèmes et leurs conséquences existent dans le monde entier, leur résolution juste et équitable dans une région pourrait contribuer à restaurer la croyance qu’ont les peuples et leurs dirigeants dans le multilatéralisme, et servir ainsi d’exemple.

Si les pays de la Méditerranée orientale acceptaient, en vertu des règles de la CNUDM, de régler leurs différends de manière juste et équitable, écrit-il, “cela donnerait une chance de démontrer que l’architecture de sécurité collective de l’après-guerre reste non seulement une approche viable mais aussi une approche vitale… Cela montrerait au monde entier qu’aucun obstacle n’est trop grand, aucune inimitié si ancrée et aucun souvenir si amer qu’il ne puisse-t-être surmonté en suivant les règles de base auxquelles tous les États membres des Nations unies ont souscrit en y adhérant: la responsabilité de régler les différends sans violence ou menace de violence”.

Le livre rappelle, de manière générale et spécifique, qu’il existe des leviers permettant d’uniformiser les règles du jeu diplomatique, une contribution utile à un moment où l’ensemble du concept de multilatéralisme est attaqué par certains des pays qui ont autrefois défendu sa création. L’ouvrage est écrit dans un style engageant, empruntant à plusieurs disciplines -de l’histoire et de la géographie au droit et à la cartographie- le rendant accessible et d’intérêt pour tous, des universitaires et des décideurs politiques aux ingénieurs et au grand public.

En attendant sa parution papier, ainsi que sa traduction en français prévue dans les prochaines semaines, le livre est disponible au format e-book. Dans le contexte actuel qui a forcé les maisons d’édition à adapter leur stratégie de lancement, l’ouvrage a fait l’objet ce jeudi d’un lancement organisé par TLN via zoom, avec la participation autour de l’auteur, de deux représentants éminents du Département d’État américain – Jonathan Moore (premier sous-secrétaire adjoint principal, Bureau des océans et des affaires environnementales et scientifiques internationales) et Kurt Donnelly (sous-secrétaire adjoint pour la diplomatie énergétique, Bureau des ressources énergétiques).