Middle East crude oil supplies are set to tighten further from May after Opec+ announced plans to cut output again, raising costs for refiners from Asia to Europe and pushing them to seek more supply from Russia, Africa and the Americas.
Oil prices jumped more than $4 a barrel on Monday after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia surprised markets by announcing production cuts of about 1.16mn barrels per day (bpd) from May through the rest of the year.
The pledges will bring the total volume of cuts by the group known as Opec+ since November to 3.66mn bpd according to Reuters calculations, equal to 3.7% of global demand.
Opec+ had been expected to hold output steady through the end of this year, having cut output by 2mn bpd in November last year.
An official at a South Korean refiner said the cut was “bad news” for oil buyers and Opec was seeking to “protect their profit” against concerns of a global economic slowdown.
The supply cut would drive up crude prices just as weakening economies depress fuel demand and prices, squeezing refiners’ profits, the South Korean refining official and a Chinese trader said.
Both declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak to media.
Tighter Opec+ crude supply will be negative for Japan as it may further boost inflation and weaken its economy, Takayuki Honma, chief economist at Sumitomo Corp Global Research, said.
“Producing countries apparently want to see oil prices rise to $90-$100/bbl, but higher oil prices also mean higher risk of economic downturn and sluggish demand,” he added.
The Opec+ production cuts come as purchases by China, the world’s top crude importer, are expected to hit a record in 2023 as it recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, while consumption from No 3 importer India remains robust, traders said.
At the same time, European refiners’ demand for Middle East crude has risen — especially for Basrah Heavy and Oman crudes — to replace Russian oil banned by the European Union since December, traders and an Indian refining official said.
“Now they’ll face the heat,” he said, predicting the market will become “very tight”.
Kuwait has already notified buyers it will cut exports to keep more crude for its Al Zour refinery, and Saudi Aramco is ramping up operations at its Jizan refinery.
Top exporter Saudi Aramco, which had been expected to cut official selling prices for term oil sales to Asia in May, may now decide to raise prices instead, traders said.
With higher prices and less supply of Middle East sour crude, China and India may be pushed to buy more Russian oil, boosting revenue for Moscow, said the Indian refining official, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak to media.
The rise in Brent prices could push Urals and other Russian oil products to prices above the caps set by the Group of Seven Nations (G7) aimed at curbing Moscow’s oil revenues, he said.
While traders and analysts had expected crude to be in surplus in the second quarter with Asian refineries down for maintenance and French refineries shut due to strikes, they now expect the Opec+ cuts to tighten markets ahead of summer, the high-demand season.
The Opec cuts would help soak up the excess volumes in the west, said a Chinese refining source. Refiners in Japan and South Korea said they are not considering taking Russian barrels due to geopolitical concerns and may look for alternative supply from Africa and Latin America.
“Japan could seek more supply from the United States, but bringing the US oil through the Panama Canal is expensive,” Sumitomo’s Honma said.
Traders are also watching for responses from the United States, which called Opec+’s move inadvisable.
“In essence, the purpose of this massive surprise production cut is mainly to regain market pricing power,” the Chinese trader said.

New Opec cuts may tighten markets considerably and widen the oil market deficit in the second half of this year, Emirates NBD said Monday.
The regional banking group forecasts Brent to average $92.50/barrel in H2, 2023.
Some members of Opec+ have announced a “surprise” production cut to take effect from May and be held until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia will cut output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) while several other members will also cut output substantially.
The UAE will cut by 144,000 bpd, Iraq by 211,000 bpd and Kuwait will cut output by 128,000 bpd.
The production changes will mirror “voluntary” cuts of 500,000 bpd that Russia is making in response to sanctions that have been placed on its oil exports.
“Including Russia’s cuts, the total reduction from Opec+ will be about 1.6mn bpd though as several members of Opec are already failing to hit their output targets, the scale of the cut is likely to be smaller,” Emirates NBD said in a report.
“The move surprised markets and analyst consensus. Our own expectation was that Opec+ would keep production unchanged from the levels it set in October last year when it also implemented a supply cut,” Emirates NBD noted.
As recently as February this year, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said that the “agreement that we struck in October is here to stay for the rest of the year,” referring to planned cuts of 2mn bpd announced in October last year.
Since then, financial markets have endured considerable stress due to the collapse of several institutions in the US along with the descent of Credit Suisse.
That strain in financial markets did spill over into oil prices — West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures recently hit a bottom of $64/b on March 20 — though prices were already on their way higher with WTI ending last week at $75.67/b.
The announced cuts from several Opec members will widen the oil market deficit in the second half of 2023, provided they are held for the full tenure of the agreement.
“Our prior oil market balance assumptions had a deficit emerging in H2 this year as demand was set to recover strongly from Q2 onward as China’s oil demand normalised. With the new cuts from Opec+ taken into the baseline, the deficit will near on 3m b/d by Q4 this year and drain inventories down to 53 days of OECD demand. The pre-pandemic average for inventory days of demand had been about 62 days so the cuts will have a meaningful tightening effect on balances,” noted Edward Bell, senior director, Market Economics at Emirates NBD.
The cuts from Opec+ ministers reinforce Emirates NBD’s view that oil prices will recover from recent lows, particularly in H2.
“For now, we hold our recently revised oil forecasts unchanged — targeting Brent at an average of $92.50/b in H2 — though the cuts do provide some upside risks to that view,” he said.

After years of wrangling, the world’s most important oil price is about to be transformed for good, allowing crude supplies from west Texas to help determine the price of millions of barrels a day of petroleum transactions.

The shift is because the existing benchmark, Dated Brent, is slowly running out of tradable oil for it to remain reliable. As such, its publisher S&P Global Commodity Insights — better known by traders as Platts — has been forced to make a dramatic overhaul.

Its switchover was fraught with controversy and caused a lot of stress among physical oil traders. But it was necessary. BP Plc at one stage said that Dated Brent was subject to “increasingly regular dislocations.”

But the future of Dated is now set. From cargoes for June onward, West Texas Intermediate Midland, oil from the Permian will become one of a handful of grades that set the Dated benchmark.

Here’s a look at what matters as the transition gets closer.

1. Why does it matter?

Dated, as it’s commonly known by oil traders, helps to set the price of about two-thirds of the world’s oil and even defines the price of some gas deals.

Oil producing states will often sell their barrels at small premiums or discounts to Dated, so the precise mechanics of how it is formed matter to them. In addition, the benchmark lies at the center of a complex web of derivatives, ultimately shaping Brent oil futures that get traded on exchanges.

Dated affects a host of oil prices, so even crude in Dubai could feel the effects, according to Adi Imsirovic, a veteran oil trader and senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

2. Exactly what’s happening?

Traders will be able to offer WTI Midland for sale from the US Gulf Coast. It will be delivered into Rotterdam and then price will be netted back using a freight adjustment factor as if it’s shipped from the North Sea.

By following a careful process, Platts will evaluate if the oil is being offered at a higher or lower level than five existing grades that set Dated — Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk or Troll.

If Platts judges that WTI Midland is the most competitive price on offer — or actually sold — then it could set Dated.

So WTI Midland might then influence the price a seller of an Atlantic Basin barrel charges a refinery in China.

3. How will price discovery work?

Imagine the existing Dated grades, which go under the acronym BFOET, are at $80 a barrel.

A trader might pick up a cargo of WTI Midland at $79 from a terminal the US Gulf with $2 added delivery cost to Rotterdam — more than 6,000 miles and around 17 days sailing away.

Platts would need to make that delivered cargo like-for-like against the existing BFOET grades, which are transacted on a so-called Free on Board, or FOB, basis in the North Sea.

To do that, it will use what it calls a freight adjustment factor, deducting the estimated cost of transportation across the North Sea to Rotterdam. If that were to be $1 a barrel, then the implied FOB price of WTI Midland in the North Sea would be about $80.

The process will place an emphasis on Platts’s assessments of tanker costs.

4. What’s the timeline?

Some changes are already getting underway. In February, Platts began assessing forward prices based on the new assessment. Real cargoes of crude from the US will be allowed for inclusion from early May.

The expiry of the May Brent futures contract at end-March will rely on some trades of a June Brent exchange of futures for physical contract, which will take the changes into account.

Those key derivatives tools, along with the futures market, will determine the basis price of physical Dated Brent for June.

An important detail in the coming weeks is just how much trading of forward Dated Brent will pick up. So far, twelve entities have conducted transactions based on the new terms, according to Platts.

Ultimately these deals will define something called the Brent Index, a once-a-month price published by ICE Futures Europe that’s used for the cash settlement of futures.

“Without a forward market, there’s no way to financially settle the ICE Brent contract,” said Kurt Chapman, a veteran oil trader and ex-head of crude at Mercuria Energy Group, who retired in 2018 after almost three decades on the front lines of global oil trading.

5. Will the Dated be better?

Assuming traders take to the adjustments, it will be transformative in terms of the underlying volume of oil that can be transacted.

In March alone, around 60 tankers hauling around 1.8 million barrels a day of oil were expected to arrive in Europe, the highest since 2016, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Something like 1 million barrels a day of WTI Midland will theoretically be eligible for inclusion in Dated, although the volumes may be marginal until the trading of new Dated picks up.

6. What are the main concerns?

No two crudes are identical and eventually Platts will have to evaluate precisely how WTI Midland compares with other grades within BFOET.

Some say it is superior because of its density and sulfur levels.

However, some European traders have also expressed worries that the properties of WTI Midland cargoes may not match up to what was stipulated when it traded. That’s because WTI is actually a blend of different crudes.

It would be a problem if a cargo of oil — bought or sold with a view to setting a global benchmark underpinning prices globally — were found to have a flaw.

US terminal operators say there’s not much to be concerned about. They say that the 11 terminals approved by Platts that will send crude are all able to assure consistently high quality to suit Dated.

Another issue is the cargo sizes that will be allowed to be included. At 700,000 barrels, they do not match up to the reality of current oil trading of US oil.

There has been a flood of supertankers bringing 2-million-barrel cargoes across the Atlantic. Those wouldn’t qualify for inclusion in setting the Dated.

Finally, the BFOET grades all come with their own loading programs with each consignment given its own unique identifier. That gives traders clear visibility on the supply of oil. That’s not yet the case for WTI Midland and could cause some uncertainty about how many cargoes are being offered.

— With assistance by Sherry Su and Sheela Tobben

QatarEnergy has entered into a farm-in agreement with ExxonMobil Canada for two exploration licences offshore the province of Newfoundland and Labrador in Canada.
Pursuant to the agreement, QatarEnergy holds a 28% working interest in licence EL 1167, where the Gale exploration well and associated activities are planned.
ExxonMobil Canada (operator) holds 50% while Cenovus Energy holds 22%. QatarEnergy also holds a 40% working interest in licence EL 1162, while ExxonMobil Canada (operator) holds the remaining 60%.
The transaction has completed all necessary formalities with the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB).
Commenting on this occasion, HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi, also the President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said: “We are pleased to sign this agreement with our strategic partner, ExxonMobil, to further grow our offshore Atlantic Canada portfolio as part of our international growth drive, and look forward to continue working within Canada’s transparent and stable regulatory environment.”
Al-Kaabi added: “I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board, which has been very supportive of this process, and look forward to a successful exploration campaign with our partners.”
Located offshore Eastern Canada, EL 1167 and EL 1162 lie in water depths ranging from 100 to 1,200 metres and cover an area of approximately 1,420 and 2,400 square kilometres, respectively.

GECF LNG exports have jumped 12% (1.74mn tonnes) year-on-year (y-o-y) to 16.45mn tonnes in February, driven by Qatar, which is the forum’s top liquefied natural gas exporter, Doha-headquartered Gas Exporting Countries Forum said in its latest monthly report.
The surge in GECF’s LNG exports was driven by Qatar (+0.84mn tonnes), Norway (+0.36mn tonnes), Malaysia (+0.33mn tonnes), Egypt (+0.15mn tonnes), Mozambique (+0.15mn tonnes), Angola (+0.14mn tonnes), Algeria (+0.10mn tonnes), Trinidad and Tobago (+0.08mn tonnes), Russia (+0.05mn tonnes) and Peru (+0.02mn tonnes).
In contrast, LNG exports declined in the United Arab Emirates (-0.26mn tonnes) and Nigeria (-0.21mn tonnes), GECF noted.
Looking at Qatar and Angola, lower maintenance activity at LNG facilities in both countries compared to a year earlier boosted the countries’ exports.
In Norway, the continued ramp-up in production from the Hammerfest LNG facility, following its restart in June 2022, drove the increase in exports.
Furthermore, higher feedgas availability for LNG exports in Malaysia, Egypt, Algeria and Trinidad and Tobago supported the increase in exports from these countries.
With regard to Mozambique, the ramp-up in production from the Coral South FLNG facility supported the rise in LNG exports.
On the other hand, the decline in LNG exports from the UAE was attributed to maintenance activity at the Das Island LNG facility.
In Nigeria, lower feedgas availability for LNG exports contributed to the lower LNG exports.
NLNG declared force majeure on feedgas supply to the liquefaction facility in January 2023, which remained in effect in February, GECF noted.
In February 2023, global LNG exports rose sharply y-o-y by 11% (3.48mn tonnes) to 34.00mn tonnes.
Stronger LNG exports from GECF member countries, non-GECF countries and higher LNG reloads drove the growth in global LNG exports.
Non-GECF countries were the largest LNG exporters during the month with a share of 49.5% in global LNG exports, followed by GECF (48.4%) and LNG reloads (2.1%).
In comparison to February 2022, the shares of GECF member countries and LNG reloads increased from 48.2% and 0.8% respectively while the share of non-GECF countries declined from 51.0%, the monthly report showed.
At a country level, the US was the largest exporter in February 2023, followed by Australia and Qatar.
For January and February of this year, combined, global LNG exports rose by 6.7% (4.33mn tonnes) y-o-y to 69.44mn tonnes, GECF noted.

Nakilat, whose liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers account for about 10% of the global LNG carrying capacity, has said its greater fleet capacity and increased operational efficiency provide it with a “competitive” edge as its expands its international shipping portfolio through the recent strategic expansion of Nakilat’s fleet with an additional four LNG carriers, and the improved performance of its joint ventures and support services operating in the shipyard,
Nakilat has achieved sustainable and long-term growth over the past year, demonstrating its commitment to innovative sustainability and operational excellence, its chairman Abdulaziz al-Muftah told shareholders yesterday at the annual general assembly meeting, which approved the 2022 results and 13% dividend.
“This commitment has provided Nakilat with a greater fleet capacity and increased operational efficiency, providing us with a competitive edge in the LNG shipping sector, as the company expands its international shipping portfolio,” he said.
With a fleet strength of 74 vessels – one of the largest LNG shipping fleets in the world, Nakilat’s portfolio comprises 69 LNG carriers, four liquefied petroleum gas carriers and one floating storage regasification unit – the company is backbone of the transportation link in Qatar’s LNG supply chain, according to him.
“Our LNG fleet has a combined carrying capacity of over 9mn cubic metres, which is about 10% of the global LNG fleet carrying capacity,” he said, adding the majority of Nakilat’s vessels are fixed with long-term charters to reputable counterparties, creating a “steady and healthy” cash flow for the company.
Nakilat followed through its expansion plans with the delivery of “Global Sealine”, a technologically advanced LNG carrier new-build during 2022, demonstrating commitment to innovation, sustainability, and operational excellence.
“This allowed Nakilat to provide greater fleet capacity and flexibility to its customers and gave the company a significant competitive advantage in the energy transportation sector,” al-Muftah said, adding this also contributed towards the company’s efforts at reducing its carbon footprint and operating sustainably apace growing its international shipping portfolio.
He said the company’s resilience and the convergent efforts have enabled its sustained growth momentum and business continuity, creating immense value for both its customers and shareholders.
With a solid sense of direction from the company’s long-term expansion strategy and opportunities that re-emphasised its importance in achieving its targets, Nakilat has been smoothly sailing towards making significant contributions and notable accomplishments during 2022, al-Muftah said in the latest board report.
Supported by its Erhama Bin Jaber Al Jalahma Shipyard, Nakilat’s joint venture companies continue adding strategic value to its operations through dedicated services, including ship repair, offshore fabrication, as well as a range of maritime services, all of which contribute towards establishing Qatar as a shipping and maritime hub, in support of the Qatar National Vision 2030, according to him.

Yet another feather in the cap for the Public Works Authority (Ashghal). In recognition of its distinguished health and safety performance, and wellness initiatives, Ashghal has been declared the overall winner of two International Safety Awards 2020 by the British Safety Council, in recognition of its commitment to keeping workers and workplaces healthy and safe during the 2019 calendar year. The awards reflect Ashghal’s commitment to health and safety in its construction projects and the leading position that Ashghal plays in the Qatari construction industry in terms of spreading awareness and best H&S practices.
Ashghal is one of the very few organisations to be crowned the overall winner in the following categories: “Wellbeing Initiative” for protecting its employees from the risk of injury and ill health at work, and “Best Team of the Year” for the Roads and Infrastructure project in West Muaither (Package 3) in recognition of its commitment to keeping its workers and workplaces healthy and safe in 2019.
Engineer Yousef Al-Emadi, Director of Projects Affairs, said: “The International Safety Awards are part of numerous awards won by Ashghal during the past few years. They are a result of well-implemented strategies set by Ashghal’s leadership and nurtured at every level across the organisation.”
In 2019, Ashghal succeeded in undertaking the health screening of 78,197 workers, or 96.5% of the entire workforce. The British Safety Council commended Ashghal on the achievement, which is in line with the Council’s vision that no one should be injured or made ill through work – anywhere in the world
In March this year, Ashghal won the Government Sustainability Initiative Award presented by the Qatar Green Building Council (QGBC), a member of the Qatar Foundation, for applying best environmental practices in project implementation works. The Award comes in recognition of Ashghal’s efforts in the field of environmental sustainability, and in the context of several initiatives by the authority within the roads and infrastructure projects implemented by the Roads Projects Department.
Under the five-year plan (2018-2022), Ashghal will implement 25 plans related to the evaluation and follow-up of road safety, including achieving safety at work sites, managing traffic congestion and building an intelligent transportation system.
Ashghal continues to implement sustainable infrastructure for the State of Qatar. The achievements come within the framework of the State’s interest in the infrastructure, construction and reconstruction sector in line with the aspirations of its National Vision 2030 and to serve its hosting of the 2022 FIFA World Cup Qatar.

While the world population reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 according to the United Nations, nearly 3.6bn people are now climate vulnerable. It is in this context that one should analyse the news that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Synthesis Report under the Sixth Assessment Cycle will be released on March 20 following negotiations this week by governments on the ‘Summary for Policymakers’.
The report will gather and distil scientific evidence from the IPCC working group reports and special reports published between 2018 and 2022. It will be the last such report from the IPCC in this cycle until further reports are published under the next assessment cycle, which could be only in 2027 or 2028.
Culminating with this Synthesis Report, the science from the IPCC is crucial evidence to governments for this decade on the current state of the climate crisis. It must serve as a warning to polluters that their time is up. The window of time to keep global temperatures below 1.5ºC is fast closing in. Current climate targets put the world on a 2.8ºC pathway by 2100. A rapid equitable fossil fuel phase out must be top priority for all governments while scaling up investments in renewables and energy efficiency measures. Wealthy nations must substantially increase their international climate finance based on their fair share, the Climate Action Network (CAN) has urged in a statement last Friday.
Past reports under this assessment cycle have underlined the dire situation and stated unequivocally that greenhouse gases – from the reliance on fossil fuels, industrialisation and land-use – is driving up emissions and causing unprecedented levels of global heating. Human actions have caused the last decade to be the warmest decade in the last 125,000 years. Sharpening inequities show that the richest 10% of households contribute about 36%-45% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Communities in many vulnerable regions will experience the limits of adaptation even before 1.5ºC warming and sea-level rise poses an existential threat to some small islands and low-lying coastal areas.
“The forthcoming IPCC report should mobilise governments to envision and act towards transitioning into a fully renewable-energy powered society supported by strong energy efficiency measures, based on principles of justice and the protection of human rights,” stated Stephan Singer, senior global specialist on climate science and energy, CAN International, and head of delegation for CAN at IPCC. Investing in renewables means rapidly divesting from fossil fuels and nuclear energies and phasing them out by mid-century to ensure the least damaging pathway towards climate stability. The IPCC Synthesis Report must reiterate its recent findings that renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, are technologically, financially and economically the key means to fight climate change, he said.
Dr Stephen Cornelius, Global Deputy Lead for Climate and Energy, World Wide Fund for Nature, stated that leaders must heed the science and act immediately with the pace and scale necessary to decarbonise the economies in time. An accelerated phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to limit global warming to below 1.5ºC and avoid the worst climate change risks. As he explained, nature is our secret ally in the fight against climate change. Natural systems have absorbed 54% of human-related carbon dioxide emissions over the past decade and have slowed global warming and helped protect humanity from much more severe climate change risks. We can’t hope to limit warming to 1.5°C, adapt to climate change and save lives and livelihoods, unless we also act urgently to safeguard and restore nature, a non-negotiable part of the solution to the climate crisis, as Dr Cornelius said.

PARIS – Parts of earth’s ice sheets that could lift global oceans by metres will likely crumble with another 0.5 deg C of warming, and are fragile in ways not previously understood, according to new research.

The risk, which will play out over centuries, may also be greater than expected for a significant portion of the world’s population in coastal regions.

New research suggests that the number of people threatened by sea-level rise has been underestimated by tens of millions because of poorly interpreted satellite data and a lack of scientific resources in developing countries.

Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have shed more than half a trillion tonnes annually since 2000 – six icy Olympic pools every second.

These kilometres-thick ice cubes have replaced glacier melt as the single biggest source of sea-level rise, which has accelerated three-fold over the last decades compared with most of the 20th century.

A 20cm increase since 1900 has boosted the destructive wallop of ocean storms made more powerful and wide-ranging by global warming, and is driving salt water into populous, low-lying agricultural deltas across Asia and Africa.

Up to now, climate models have underestimated how much ice sheets will add to future sea-level rise because they mostly looked at the one-way impact of rising air temperatures on the ice, and not the complicated interaction between atmosphere, oceans, ice sheet and ice shelves.

Using so-called active ice sheet models, scientists from South Korea and the United States projected how much ice sheets would raise global oceans by 2150 under three emissions scenarios: swift and deep cuts as called for by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, current climate policies, and a steep increase in carbon pollution.

Looking only at a 2100 horizon is misleading, because oceans will continue to rise for hundreds of years no matter how quickly humanity draws down emissions.

If rising temperatures – up 1.2 deg C above pre-industrial levels so far – can be capped at 1.5 deg C, the additional impact of ice sheets will remain very small, they found.

Doomsday glacier

But under current policies, including national carbon-cutting pledges under the 2015 Paris Agreement, Greenland and Antarctica would add about half a metre to the global watermark.

And if emissions increase – from human or natural sources – under a “worst-case” scenario, enough ice would melt to lift oceans 1.4m.

Perhaps the most striking finding from the study, published this week in Nature Communications, was a red line for runaway ice sheet disintegration.

“Our model has a threshold between 1.5 deg C and 2 deg C of warming – with 1.8 deg C as a best estimate – for acceleration of ice loss and sea-level increase,” co-author Fabian Schloesser from the University of Hawaii told Agence France-Presse.

Scientists have long known that the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets – which together could lift oceans 13m – have “tipping points” beyond which complete disintegration is inevitable, whether in centuries or millennia. But pinpointing these temperature trip wires has remained elusive.

A pair of studies this week in Nature, meanwhile, showed that Antarctica’s Thwaites “doomsday glacier” – a slab the size of Britain sliding towards the sea – is fracturing in unsuspected ways.

Thwaites is one of the fastest moving glaciers on the continent, and has retreated 14km since the 1990s. Much of it is below sea level and susceptible to irreversible ice loss.

But exactly what is driving the march to the sea has been unclear for lack of data.

Misinterpreted data

An international expedition of British and US scientists drilled a hole the depth of two Eiffel towers (600m) through the thick tongue of ice Thwaites has pushed out over the Southern Ocean’s Amundsen Sea.

Using sensors and an underwater robot, called Icefin, threaded through the hole, they examined the ice shelf’s hidden underbelly.

There was less melting than expected in some places, but far more in others.

The stunned scientists discovered up-side-down staircase formations – like an underwater Escher drawing – with accelerated erosion, along with long fissures being forced open by sea water.

“Warm water is getting into the cracks, helping wear down the glacier at its weakest point,” said Dr Britney Schmidt, lead author of one of the studies and an associate professor at Cornell University in New York.

A fourth study, published last week in the American Geophysical Union journal Earth’s Future, found that rising oceans will destroy farmland, ruin water supplies and uproot millions of people sooner than thought.

“The time available to prepare for increased exposure to flooding may be considerably less than assumed to date,” Dutch researchers Ronald Vernimmen and Aljosja Hooijer concluded.

The new analysis shows that a given amount of sea-level rise – whether 30cm or 300cm – will devastate twice the area projected in most models to date.

Remarkably, a misinterpretation of data is mostly to blame: Radar measurements of coastal elevations used until recently, it turned out, often mistook tree canopy and rooftops for ground level, adding metres of elevation that were not in fact there.

Most vulnerable will be tens of millions of people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh, Pakistan, Egypt, Thailand, Nigeria and Vietnam.

Earlier research taking into account more accurate elevation readings found that areas currently home to 300 million people will be vulnerable by mid-century to flooding made worse by climate change, no matter how aggressively emissions are reduced. AFP