No winter shortage expected despite lower reserves, Pouyanne says; competition with Asia over limited LNG cargoes has driven summer gas prices higher; Pouyanne says markets wrongly assumed Iran war would end this summer

Reuters — Brussels

Europe will not face a gas shortage this winter, but will have to pay more to ensure sufficient supply, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said on Monday, adding that the region needed to rethink its storage policy.

“Europe’s mistake this year, specifically regarding gas, was unfortunately to have relaxed storage requirements a year too early, which left us entering the winter with lower reserves, thereby increasing the strain,” Pouyanne told reporters at a briefing on TotalEnergies’ energy demand outlook.

Europe is competing with Asia for liquefied natural gas cargoes as it seeks to replenish depleted storage sites ahead of winter, amid uncertainty over the US-Israeli war with Iran and its impact on exports.

That has pushed gas prices higher during the summer refill season, when traders typically inject fuel into storage for winter demand. The European energy regulators’ agency ACER said in April that filling storage sites to 90% would be difficult given tight global supplies and that countries could instead target 80%, a flexibility allowed under EU rules during difficult market conditions.

Germany’s gas storage sites, the largest in Europe, are entering winter at their lowest level on record, standing at 61.03% full on November 1, well below the European Union average of 74.62%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Pouyanne said short-term thinking and the pursuit of economic efficiency had led to “a rude awakening” for Europe’s gas market.

“We assumed people would anticipate gas prices rising more rapidly; instead, the markets acted as if the war would end this summer,” he said.

Europe’s benchmark natural gas contract closed above €100 on October 28 for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis. “We will pay more than others, it’s simple,” Pouyanne said.

By Peter Alagos, Business Editor

Qatar’s rapid advancement in utility-scale solar energy and industrial sustainability offers significant opportunities to optimise long-term asset performance through localised engineering strategies, according to global technical consultancy SgurrEnergy.

“Conditions vary considerably across Middle East and Africa, so a maintenance strategy that works in an inland desert should be validated before being applied to a coastal Qatari site,” Arif Aga, director at SgurrEnergy, told Gulf Times in an exclusive interview.

Highlighting the country’s high irradiance alongside specific coastal environmental factors, Aga emphasised that international expertise can complement national efforts to ensure maximum lifetime yield for solar infrastructure.

“Automated dry-cleaning robots can reduce water consumption and improve cleaning consistency. However, their brushes, contact pressure and operating frequency must be compatible with the module glass, coatings, and warranties.

“Qatar’s humidity can cause dust to adhere more firmly, requiring carefully timed cleaning and, where necessary, targeted wet cleaning. Research by Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute has examined both these soiling challenges and the abrasion associated with robotic cleaning,” Aga explained.

Aga pointed out that data-driven approaches, combining site-specific soiling measurements, weather tracking, and advanced analytics, reinforce the performance standards established by local research institutions and project developers.

He said, “Anti-soiling coatings should undergo local field trials and durability assessment before being applied widely. Equipment selection must also account for temperature-related losses, corrosion, dust ingress and maintainability.”

Drawing on experience across more than 240 GW of renewable energy developments globally, Aga noted that SgurrEnergy provides technical support to the region through its regional hubs in Dubai and Riyadh.

Building on the foundation of Qatar’s industrial diversification, hybrid solar-plus-storage applications also present promising avenues for further reducing operational emissions across key hubs like Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, Aga stated.

“Qatar has already established a strong foundation through the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed solar plants, inaugurated in April 2025 with a combined capacity of 875MW. The next opportunity is to integrate renewable generation, storage, and industrial demand more closely,” Aga said.

On integrating solar generation with Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), Aga noted that this provides potential to support daytime operations, balance demand fluctuations, and complement existing power networks in industrial cities.

Given that solar generation remains among the most cost-competitive power sources globally, Aga said strategic storage and hybrid configurations align well with high-irradiance markets looking to maximise energy efficiency.

“SgurrEnergy can support this integration through feasibility studies, hybrid sizing, grid and power-system studies, detailed engineering, procurement support, construction oversight, and commissioning.

“Our independence allows us to assess configurations against the requirements of industrial operators, developers, utilities and lenders, with reliability and measurable emissions reductions central to the design,” Aga added.

AFP — Paris

Europe is entering winter with its lowest level of natural gas reserves since 2013, which could extend pressure on the international market into 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Tuesday. Europe’s natural gas storage reservoirs were 75% full at the end of October, well below the minimum target of 80% fixed by the European Union and at its lowest level in more than a decade, the IEA said.

Several factors explain the situation.

Natural gas liquefaction facilities in the Gulf have been damaged in US-Iran war, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced.

Moreover European nations are filling their storage reservoirs from low levels at the end of the heating season in the spring. Buyers had initially held off buying stocks in the hope prices would fall. Deliveries stepped up in August, September and October, but not enough to make up for the delay, the IEA said.

The amount of gas injected into storage reservoirs this season was about four percent below the average of the past five years, it added. That makes European nations more dependent upon securing deliveries of additional supplies of LNG to meet peak demand.

It could also make more vulnerable if the winter is colder than usual, there are technical problems in the gas network, or supply problems, said the IEA. Germany insisted on Monday that it would have enough gas for the winter despite missing a storage target.

German gas storage facilities are on average 61% full, according to the federal agency that oversees Germany’s energy infrastructure and markets. That is below a legally mandated target for 70% by November 1.

It also lags behind the European Union average of nearly 75%, according to the storage tracking platform AGSI.

Reuters — London/Moscow

Opec+ oil-producing countries kept December production targets steady on Sunday, confirming expectations that more policy adjustments will not occur until next year, as the group continues to struggle with export disruptions from the Iran war.

Seven core Opec+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — made the decision in an online meeting on Sunday, Opec said in a statement. While Gulf members have been boosting exports that have been disrupted for months by the conflict, most are still pumping well below their targets.

Opec+ comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. Only the seven members — plus the United Arab Emirates until it quit Opec in May — have been involved in monthly output decisions in recent years. All members of the 21-country group are due to meet on November 29, when analysts expect it will decide 2027 quotas.

“Today’s decision was the easy one,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad. “The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when Opec+ will decide its 2027 production framework.”

Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Friday, with Brent crude settling at almost $118 a barrel, the highest since April, as traders braced for a potential escalation in the Iran war after the US midterm elections.

The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned of excess supply in 2027 should Gulf flows return to normal.

“Opec+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027,” Leon added. “The group has to plan around huge uncertainty over the US-Iran war, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the size of the surplus that could emerge once disrupted barrels return.”

The seven members have been boosting output targets for much of 2026 and in September completed the phased rollback of a 1.65mn-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. At earlier meetings, they kept the targets steady for October and November.

Opec+ still has one more layer of production cuts of about 2mn bpd covering most members through the end of 2026.

The group needs to complete a review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas and shape plans to unwind those cuts, sources have said.

The Iran war has disrupted projects to expand capacity across the Middle East, throwing estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, Reuters reported in October. As a result, the review is now expected to be completed by mid-November.

Reuters — London

Big Oil is reaping near record cash windfalls from the eight-month-old Iran war, but Western energy producers’ reluctance to ramp up spending reveals persistent doubts about the industry’s long-term outlook.

BP, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Shell and TotalEnergies reported combined net profits of $56bn in the third quarter, driven by surging oil and gas prices, record-high refining margins and strong trading results.

BP posted its highest quarterly profit ever, $8.5bn, as earnings from its refining business rose tenfold from a year earlier. For the other majors, the quarter was generally their second-strongest on record, behind only the extraordinary gains booked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Market conditions remain incredibly favourable. Brent crude has surged around 60% to $114 a barrel since the start of the Iran conflict on February 28, while benchmark European natural gas prices have climbed to their highest levels since late 2022. Diesel prices, meanwhile, remain close to September’s all-time high above $200 per barrel as fuel markets continue to grapple with refinery outages and disrupted trade flows.

Yet, Big Oil has so far shied away from major new spending, suggesting the majors do not see today’s market conditions as evidence that the industry’s long-term outlook has improved.

Entering the year, the energy industry had been bracing for a looming supply glut. Many companies were cutting spending plans, freezing hiring and intensifying cost-saving programmes amid expectations that a flood of new oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies would pressure prices later in the decade.

The joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February and the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz upended the short-term supply picture, as exports from the Gulf ground to a halt and refining capacity shrank.

However, energy companies have so far maintained their conservative approach, directing excess cash mostly to strengthening balance sheets and repurchasing shares.

The majors’ combined net debt fell to $117bn in the third quarter from $204bn in the first quarter. BP, which entered the conflict carrying one of the highest debt burdens among its peers, nearly halved net debt to $13.9bn from a year earlier. The company will continue to focus on debt reduction, its CEO said.

Share buybacks also rose to $12.3bn in the third quarter, little changed from the previous quarter. Shell and TotalEnergies announced sharp increases in buybacks over the next three months, while Exxon said it planned to buy back $20bn of shares in 2027, a similar level to this year.

While debt reduction and share repurchases can be dialled up or down from one quarter to the next, capital spending and dividends are longer-term commitments that are much harder to reverse if market conditions deteriorate. So it is telling that the majors’ dividend policies and capital spending plans have remained largely unchanged since the start of the war.

Shell, for example, reduced its 2026 capital spending guidance by $1bn to $23bn to $25bn despite the sharp improvement in commodity prices. Chevron expects 2026 spending to remain at the lower end of its $18bn to $19bn guided range.

The extreme volatility and uncertain outlook have also curbed companies’ appetite for large acquisitions, as buyers and sellers struggle to agree on fair valuations for assets.

The main exception has been North American natural gas, where abundant supplies and relatively predictable pricing have made it easier to strike deals. Shell’s $16.4bn acquisition of Canada’s ARC Resources in April reflected growing confidence in the continent’s expanding LNG export sector and long-term gas demand prospects.

TotalEnergies has also indicated interest in deals that would help raise its US gas production by around 1 bn cubic feet per day, although CEO Patrick Pouyanne said oil assets remained too expensive at current valuations.

Boards will review 2027 spending plans before year-end, when companies could decide to increase shareholder distributions or accelerate investment. But all signs so far indicate that any changes will mostly involve returning more capital to shareholders.

What stands out in this bumper earnings season is that energy industry executives appear unwilling to treat today’s elevated prices as the start of a new supercycle.

The experience of the past decade, from the 2014 oil price collapse to the pandemic crash and the post-Ukraine boom, has reinforced a preference for financial discipline over production growth.

That is understandable, particularly because the concerns driving the industry’s long-term uncertainty — namely the speed and shape of the energy transition, particularly in Asia — have not improved and may have got worse.

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have highlighted the risk of being overly dependent on imported fossil fuels. This could spur stockpiling, but it could also encourage countries to pursue more domestic energy production, from both traditional and alternative fuel sources.

In the short term, there are growing signs that oil and gas markets could remain tight, helping to generate more hefty profits for the energy majors. Over the longer term, geopolitical fracture and energy nationalism appear set to usher in a new era of greater energy market volatility.

This suggests today’s caution is warranted.

The opinions expressed here are those of Ron Bousso, a columnist for Reuters.

A new book ^[6] titled “The Wars of the Straits – Hormuz ^[7] Case: The Impact on World Energy Markets” by Dr. Roudi Baroudi ^[8], an international energy consultant and member of the Transatlantic Leadership Network (TLN), was released Tuesday in Washington, D.C.

The book ^[6] offers a comprehensive examination of the crises of 2026 and their repercussions, tracing the historical roots of conflicts over strategic waterways while exploring options to reduce the risks of similar disruptions in the future.

From the “Tanker War” to the Genoa-Venice Rivalry

Baroudi does not confine his analysis to modern confrontations in the Gulf or the “Tanker War” of the 1980s. Instead, he traces the concept of “wars of the straits” back some seven centuries, examining the medieval rivalry between Genoa and Venice over access routes to the Bosporus and the Black Sea.

Through this approach, the book ^[6] places the events of 2026 within a broader historical context of competition over maritime corridors, highlighting their role in great-power rivalry and their use as instruments of political and economic pressure during periods of crisis.

صدر الثلاثاء في العاصمة الأميركية واشنطن كتاب «حروب المضائق – حالة هرمز: التأثير في أسواق الطاقة العالمية» (The Wars of the Straits – Hormuz Case: The Impact on World Energy Markets) للدكتور رودي بارودي، المستشار الدولي في شؤون الطاقة والعضو في شبكة القيادة عبر الأطلسي (TLN)، مقدّماً قراءة شاملة لأزمات عام 2026 وتداعياتها، والجذور التاريخية للصراع على الممرات البحرية الاستراتيجية، فضلاً عن الخيارات المتاحة للحد من مخاطر اضطرابات مماثلة مستقبلاً.

من «حرب الناقلات» إلى صراع جنوى والبندقية

لا يحصر بارودي بحثه في المواجهات الحديثة في منطقة الخليج أو في «حرب الناقلات» خلال ثمانينيات القرن الماضي، بل يعود بمفهوم «حروب المضائق» نحو سبعة قرون، مستعرضاً الصراع بين جنوى والبندقية في العصور الوسطى على طرق الوصول إلى مضيق البوسفور والبحر الأسود.

ومن خلال هذه المقاربة، يضع الكتاب أحداث عام 2026 ضمن سياق تاريخي أوسع للصراع على الممرات البحرية، ودورها في تنافس القوى الدولية، واستخدامها أداةً للضغط السياسي والاقتصادي خلال الأزمات.

ويجمع الكتاب، وفق الإعلان الصادر عن شبكة القيادة عبر الأطلسي، بين السرد الجيوسياسي والتحليل القانوني والتقني، متناولاً قواعد القانون الدولي الناظمة لمضيق هرمز، والمواجهات البحرية والتجارية خلال حرب عام 2026، فضلاً عن التداعيات الاقتصادية والبيئية الناجمة عن اضطراب حركة الملاحة والشحن.

كما يتوقف عند الجوانب العملية للمسارات البديلة لخطوط الأنابيب ومدى قدرتها على تخفيف الاعتماد على المضيق في أوقات الأزمات، ولا سيما ما يُعرف بـ«خطوط الأنابيب الالتفافية» (Bypass Pipelines)، في ظل المكانة المحورية التي يحتلها هرمز في حركة الطاقة والتجارة العالمية.

ولا تقتصر أهمية هذه البدائل، بحسب المقاربة التي يقدمها الكتاب، على حساب القدرة النظرية لنقل النفط والغاز بعيداً عن المضيق، بل تشمل أيضاً دراسة الجدوى العملية لهذه المسارات والقيود التقنية والاقتصادية التي يمكن أن تحد من قدرتها على تعويض حركة الشحن عبر هرمز عند حدوث اضطرابات واسعة.

هرمز وباب المندب

ويتضمن الكتاب ملاحق تتناول مذكرة التفاهم الأميركية – الإيرانية الموقعة في 17 حزيران 2026، وأهم المضائق والقنوات المائية في العالم، والعلاقة الاستراتيجية بين مضيق هرمز وباب المندب، فضلاً عن عدد من اتفاقيات ترسيم الحدود البحرية في المنطقة.

ومن خلال الربط بين هرمز وباب المندب وغيره من الممرات البحرية الحيوية، يوسّع الكتاب النقاش من أزمة مضيق بعينه إلى مسألة أكثر شمولاً تتعلق بأمن طرق التجارة والطاقة العالمية، ومدى تأثر الأسواق والاقتصادات الدولية عندما تتحول نقاط العبور البحرية الضيقة إلى ساحات مواجهة أو أدوات ضغط في النزاعات الجيوسياسية.

ويطرح «حروب المضائق – حالة هرمز» الحاجة إلى تطوير إطار دولي مستدام يستند إلى القانون الدولي والمعطيات العلمية والوقائع، بما يسهم في ضمان حرية المرور عبر المضيق والحد من مخاطر استخدام الممرات البحرية في الصراعات الدولية.

ويربط الكتاب، في هذا السياق، بين أمن الطاقة وحرية الملاحة والاستقرار الإقليمي، انطلاقاً من أن أي اضطراب كبير في حركة السفن عبر المضائق الاستراتيجية لا يبقى محصوراً بالدول المطلة عليها، بل يمكن أن تمتد آثاره إلى أسواق الطاقة وسلاسل الإمداد والتجارة والبيئة البحرية.

وأعلنت شبكة القيادة عبر الأطلسي (TLN)، التي يعمل بارودي لديها، صدور الكتاب، مشيرة إلى طابعه الجيوسياسي والقانوني والتقني، فيما تتولى Casemate توزيعه.