Bumper profits ebb at US oil giants as they tout big fossil deals

NEW YORK, Oct 28: ExxonMobil and Chevron reported lower profits Friday compared with the year-ago blowout quarter as the oil giants touted recent acquisitions they said balance economic and environmental priorities.

The two petroleum heavyweights — which in recent weeks have unveiled large takeovers of midsized fossil fuel players — both reported third-quarter profits that were big, but dwarfed by those in the year-ago period.

ExxonMobil reported third-quarter profits of $9.1 billion, less than half the level in the 2022 period of booming commodity prices, while Chevron scored profits of $6.5 billion, down 42 percent from the year-ago level.

The lower profits reflected an ebbing in commodity prices compared with the year-ago period, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine lifted oil and natural gas prices.

The results were released only days after Chevron announced a $53 billion acquisition of Hess that includes a significant stake in an oil-rich Guyana offshore territory.

That followed on the heels of ExxonMobil’s $60 billion takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources, a big player in the Permian Basin, a fast-growing petroleum region in the southwestern US.

The two large transactions have raised hopes among investment bankers of additional merger and acquisition activity involving fossil fuels, while angering progressive lawmakers and others focused on addressing climate change.

“While our homes get destroyed by climate-supercharged storms, Chevron and Exxon are betting the house on a fossil-fueled future,” Democratic Senator Ed Markey said on X, formerly Twitter, earlier this week.

“We have to make Big Oil fold their hand before our future goes bust.”

In the latest quarter, ExxonMobil scored higher oil and natural gas volumes compared with the second quarter and said that 2023 capital and exploration spending would be “at the top end” of its forecast “as the company pursues value accretive opportunities,” according to its earnings press release.

“We delivered another quarter of strong operational performance, earnings and cash flows, adding nearly 80,000 net oil-equivalent barrels per day to support global supply,” said Chief Executive Darren Woods.

ExxonMobil has said it plans significant investment in Pioneer’s Permian Basin fields that would enable Exxon to more than double its current volumes from the region to two million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2027.

In its press release, ExxonMobil characterized its approach as a balanced strategy, noting the company has also announced a $4.9 billion takeover of Denbury Inc. as a bet on carbon capture and sequestration, which the company has touted as a climate solution. ExxonMobil said its would boost petroleum output and “accelerate Pioneer’s path to net zero” emissions.

“The two transactions we’ve announced further underscore our ongoing commitment to the ‘and’ equation by continuing to meet the world’s needs for energy and essential products while reducing emissions,” Woods said.

“Pioneer will help us grow supply to meet the world’s energy needs with lower carbon intensity while Denbury improves our competitive position to economically reduce emissions in hard-to-decarbonize industries.”

Chevron’s results also showed an uptick in third-quarter production, with the company citing the boost from it earlier purchase of PDC Energy, smaller Permian operator.

Chevron as well highlighted its comparatively small efforts in its “New Energies” division, which last month closed a transaction to acquire a majority stake in Aces Delta. The first projet in that venture will convert and store hydrogen made from renewable energy, is expected to enter commercial service in 2025.

“Chevron is delivering strong financial results while also investing to profitably grow our traditional and new energy businesses to drive superior value for shareholders,” said Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth.

But critics such as clean energy podcaster David Roberts ripped both deals, saying on X, “Oil companies are quite flagrantly telling the world that they don’t take decarbonization goals seriously. They are betting on climate failure, to the tun of billions.”

Shares of ExxonMobil rose 0.3 percent in pre-market trading, while Chevron fell 2.1 percent.    �AFP




Saudi Aramco considers selling $50bn in shares

Saudi Aramco is considering selling a 2.5% stake in the company worth $50 billion, the Wall Street Journal is reporting. 

Mohammed Bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia, is said to be pushing the secondary share sale of the company and aiming to complete the deal by year-end.

The WSJ said Aramco has been “sounding out” potential investors, such as other multinational oil companies and sovereign wealth funds, about participating in the deal.

The kingdom is said to have decided to host the offering on the Riyadh Stock Exchange to avoid legal risks associated with an international listing, the report said, citing Saudi officials and other people familiar with the plan.

The WSJ said Saudi Arabia had planned to sell Aramco shares worth up to $50 billion last year, but decided that market conditions were unfavourable.

Saudi Aramco is said to be the world’s biggest oil company, with a market value of $2.25 trillion.

In 2019, the company executed the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, raising $25.6 billion, and then sold additional shares to increase the total to $29.4 billion.

In 2022, Saudi Aramco reported a record net profit of $161.1 billion — its highest annual profit as a listed company.




IEA Raises World Oil Demand Forecast In 2023 Towards All-time High

The International Energy Agency said Friday it had revised upwards its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 as demand is “scaling record highs”.

World oil demand already hit a record 103 million barrels per day in June and August and “could see yet another peak”, the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly report.

“For 2023 as a whole, global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 million barrels per day to 102.2 million barrels per day,” it said.

China accounted for 70 percent of growth, the IEA said, adding that demand in the Asian giant was “also stronger than expected, reaching fresh highs despite persistent concerns over the health of the economy”.

“World oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity,” the IEA said.

The forecasted expansion in global demand in 2023 would mark its “highest ever annual level”, according to the agency, which in February had already forecast an annual record for the year of 101.9 million barrels per day.

The increasing demand for oil comes amid tensions on world markets after significant output cuts by several members of the OPEC+ alliance — made up of 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) headed by Saudi Arabia and their 10 allies led by Russia — to prop up prices.

As a result, global oil supply plunged by 910,000 barrels per day in July, to 100.9 mbd, the IEA said in its report.

A sharp reduction in production by Saudi Arabia last month saw output from the 23-nation OPEC+ alliance fall 1.2 million barrels per day, to 50.7 mbd “a near two-year low”.

Volumes by non-OPEC+ members rose to 50.2 mbd, the report added.

In April, several OPEC+ members decided to slash production voluntarily by more than one million bpd — a surprise move that briefly buttressed prices but failed to bring about lasting recovery.

Oil producers are grappling with falling prices and high market volatility, reflecting continued fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s faltering economic recovery.

Saudi Arabia also announced last week that it was extending its voluntary oil production cut of one million barrels per day for another month to include September.

Moscow has pledged, too, to cut production by 500,000 bpd in August, and a further cut of 300,000 bpd for September.

“Market balances are set to tighten further into the autumn as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend supply cuts at least through September,” the IEA said.

If the bloc’s current targets are maintained,oil inventories could fall in the second half of the year “with a risk of driving prices still higher”.

Looking ahead to 2024 as the world races to combat climate change and reduce the use of fossil fuels, the IEA said it anticipated demand growth to slow.

“With the post-pandemic rebound running out of steam, and as lacklustre economic conditions, tighter efficiency standards and new electric vehicles weigh on use, growth is forecast to slow to 1 mbd in 2024,” it said.




Saudi Arabia’s Oil Cut Risks Leaving Bitter Taste for Budget

Saudi Arabia’s plan to slash oil production by around 10% may hit its finances hard.

Sunday’s decision, which will see the kingdom lower crude output to 9 million barrels a day next month and perhaps beyond, has failed to boost prices much. Oil futures have risen less than 1% since Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced the unilateral cut after an OPEC+ meeting.

The prince, speaking in Vienna, described it as a “lollipop” for other members of the producers’ cartel.

The kingdom’s fiscal outlook was worsening even before this weekend. The budget was in deficit for the past two quarters as oil dipped, while spending on salaries and massive tourism and infrastructure projects soared.

The International Monetary Fund estimates Riyadh will need an oil price of almost $81 a barrel to balance its books this year, which is above Brent’s current level of around $77.

The situation is starker when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s giga-projects such as the new city of Neom are taken into account. The IMF mostly excludes those because they’re largely funded by the sovereign wealth fund and other state entities, rather than directly from the government’s budget.

If those are included, Saudi Arabia’s breakeven oil price rises to $95 a barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The Saudi government is more optimistic and expects to post an annual fiscal surplus of $4.3 billion for this year.

The kingdom was the fastest-growing economy in the Group of 20 last year, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled energy markets and pushed oil above $125 a barrel. It also pumped an average of 10.5 million barrels a day, an annual record.

Saudi Arabia’s Solo Oil Cut Is a Risky Strategy: Javier Blas

The latest production cut means the economy will probably grow 0.7% in 2023 instead of 1%, according to Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC.

It “will also increase Saudi Arabia’s budget breakeven oil price if all other things remain equal,” said Malik.

Many energy analysts, as well as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, expect the oil market to tighten in the second half of the year as demand in China and India picks up further. That could bolster prices, outweighing the financial impact on Saudi Arabia of its lost production.

But plenty of traders are bearish, saying high interest rates and economic weakness in the US and Europe will weigh on oil prices for at least the rest of the year.

Riyadh’s move to lower output is “unlikely to underpin a sustainable price increase,” said Citigroup Inc. analysts including Ed Morse. “Demand is looking weaker and non-OPEC supply stronger by year-end than many analysts had forecast.”

If oil doesn’t jump, “we expect that additional production cuts will be more prolonged and the impact on the fiscal balance will be more negative” for Saudi Arabia, said Amy McAlister, lead economist for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Oxford Economics.

— With assistance by Paul Abelsky




India’s Russian oil buying hits record high, slashes Mideast, Africa share

NEW DELHI, May 17 (Reuters) – India’s oil imports from Russia rose to a fresh record high in April, further reducing the share of Middle Eastern and African grades to their lowest level in at least 22 years, data obtained from trade sources showed.

Refiners in India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, are on a Russian oil-buying binge after some countries shunned purchases from Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine in February last year.

Asia’s third-largest economy imported about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in April, about 4.4% higher than the previous month, the data showed. That accounts for about two-fifths of the nation’s overall purchases.

Higher imports from Russian raised the share of oil from the C.I.S. countries – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia – to 43.6% of an overall 4.81 million bpd imported by India last month.

That narrowed the share of the Middle Eastern grades, which traditionally have accounted for the bulk of total oil imports, to about 44% and African oil to 3.4% last month, the data showed.

Russia remained the top oil supplier to India for the sixth-straight month in April, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

“Indian refiners have cut their spot purchases of Middle Eastern and West African grades as we are getting supply of Russian oil at lower prices,” said an Indian refining official at an Indian refinery.

Oil imports from Russia also rose as Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), the country’s top refiner, raised the size of its annual import deal with Rosneft (ROSN.MM).

India’s oil imports from Iraq in April declined by 3.1% from the previous month to a 4-month low of 928,400 bpd, while imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 11% to 723,800 bpd, the least in five months, the data showed.

Lower purchases of oil from the Middle East dragged OPEC’s share of India oil imports to a record low of 46%, the data showed.




إطلاق شركة أدنوك في سوق أبو ظبي للأوراق المالية يوم الاثنين طرح عام أولي بقيمة 2.5 مليار دولار.

الخبير الدولي رودي بارودي لوكالة الصحافة الفرنسية: “الغاز الطبيعي المسال هو أهم وقود انتقالي في عملية الابتعاد عن الوقود الاحفوري”.

ستطلق وحدة الغاز التي تم تشكيلها مؤخرًا من قبل شركة الطاقة الحكومية الإماراتية أدنوك في سوق أبوظبي للأوراق المالية يوم الاثنين طرح عام أولي بقيمة 2.5 مليار دولار.

وقد شهدت أسهم شركة أدنوك للغاز ، التي دخلت حيز التشغيل في بداية هذا العام ، زيادة كبيرة في الاكتتاب حتى بعد توسيع الطرح من 4.0 إلى 5.0 في المائة من رأس المال المصدر في استجابة للاهتمام القوي من قبل الاسواق.

تم تحديد السعر النهائي للسهم  عند 2.37 درهم (0.65 دولار) للسهم ، حيث جمع حوالي 2.5 مليار دولار ما يعني رسملة سوقية بنحو 50 مليار دولار.

ويعتبر غاز أدنوك ألاكثر نشاطا في بورصة أبو ظبي حتى الآن ، اذ تجاوز الاكتتاب 50 مرة ، وهو أكبر طلب على الإطلاق لطرح عام أولي في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا ، متجاوزًا الرقم القياسي العالمي لشركة أرامكو السعودية البالغ 29.4 مليار دولار قبل ما يزيد قليلاً عن ثلاث سنوات.

يأتي الاكتتاب العام الأولي المنظم بسرعة من أدنوك ، إحدى أكبر شركات النفط في العالم ، في أعقاب التدافع العام الماضي على موارد الغاز البديلة بعد الغزو الروسي لأوكرانيا ، ويأتي في الوقت الذي تبحث فيه البلدان عن وقود أنظف للتخفيف من ظاهرة الاحتباس الحراري.

وفي هذا المجال قال مستشار الطاقة رودي بارودي ، الذي يرأس شركة الطاقة والبيئة القابضة ومقرها قطر ، إنه يتوقع زيادة الطلب عند بدء تداول الأسهم.

واضاف بارودي لوكالة فرانس برس ” كل الأسباب تجعلنا نتوقع أن الزيادة الهائلة في الاكتتاب التي رأيناها ستنتقل إلى اهتمام قوي عندما يتم طرح الأسهم علنا”.

وتحتفظ شركة بترول أبوظبي الوطنية ، المصدر الرئيسي للإيرادات في الإمارات العربية المتحدة ، بحصة 90 بالمئة في الشركة التابعة التي تشكلت من وحدات معالجة الغاز والغاز الطبيعي المسال والغاز الصناعي التابعة لها.

يُوصف الغاز بأنه أنظف من أنواع الوقود الأحفوري الأخرى حيث تسعى البلدان في جميع أنحاء العالم للحد من انبعاثاتها.

وقال البارودي إن الغاز الطبيعي المسال هو “أهم وقود انتقالي في عملية الابتعاد عن الوقود الاحفوري”.

في عام 2021 ، أنتجت الإمارات 57 مليار متر مكعب (bcm) من الغاز الطبيعي ، أو حوالي 1.4٪ من الإنتاج العالمي ، وفقًا لمراجعة BP الإحصائية للطاقة العالمية.

وقالت المجلة الإحصائية إن الإمارات صدرت في العام نفسه 8.8 مليار متر مكعب من الغاز الطبيعي المسال ، أي 1.7 بالمئة من صادرات الغاز الطبيعي المسال العالمية.

وقال بارودي: “مع تسارع وتيرة الجهود العالمية لمكافحة تغير المناخ ، من المتوقع على نطاق واسع أن ينمو دور الغاز الطبيعي بشكل عام”.

تتمتع أدنوك بسمعة طيبة ، لذلك كان من المتوقع أن يجذب الاكتتاب العام في أدنوك للغاز اهتمامًا كبيرًا.




UAE’s ADNOC Gas to Start Trading in $2.5bn IPO.

International Energy Expert, Roudi Baroudi told AFP: “LNG is Most Important Transition Fuel in the move away from hydrocarbons”.

UAE state energy company ADNOC’s recently formed gas unit will launch on the Abu Dhabi stock market on Monday in a $2.5 billion initial public offering aimed at tapping high demand for the fuel.

Shares in ADNOC Gas, which only became operational at the start of this year, were heavily oversubscribed even after the offering was expanded from 4.0 to 5.0 percent of issued share capital in response to strong interest.

The final price was set at 2.37 dirhams ($0.65) per share, towards the top of its range, raising about $2.5 billion and implying a market capitalisation of around $50 billion.

ADNOC Gas is the biggest flotation yet on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange, which opens at 9:30 am (0530 GMT).

At more than 50 times oversubscribed, it is the biggest demand ever seen for an initial public offering in the Middle East and North Africa, outstripping oil firm Saudi Aramco’s world-record $29.4 billion listing just over three years ago.

The rapidly organised IPO from ADNOC, one of the world’s biggest oil firms, follows last year’s scramble for alternative gas resources after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and comes as countries search for cleaner fuels to mitigate global warming.

Energy consultant Roudi Baroudi, who heads the Qatar-based Energy and Environment Holding firm, said he expected brisk demand when the shares start trading.

“There is every reason to expect that the massive oversubscription we saw will carry over into strong interest when the shares are floated publicly,” Baroudi told AFP.

– ‘Transition fuel’ –

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the United Arab Emirates’ key revenue-earner, retains a 90 percent stake in the subsidiary formed from its former gas processing, LNG and industrial gas units.

Gas is being touted as cleaner than other fossil fuels as countries around the world strive to reduce their emissions.

Baroudi said Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) was “the most important transition fuel in the move away from hydrocarbons”.

In 2021, the UAE produced 57 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas, or about 1.4 percent of global output, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

That same year, the Emirates exported 8.8 bcm of LNG, 1.7 percent of world LNG exports, the Statistical Review said.

“As global efforts to battle climate change gain pace, the role of natural gas in general… is widely expected to grow,” Baroudi said.

“ADNOC enjoys a solid reputation, so it was to be expected that the ADNOC Gas IPO would attract strong interest.”

ADNOC Gas could be the first in a series of share offerings in Abu Dhabi this year.

At least eight companies are expected to follow in fields ranging from technology to asset management and regenerative medicine, Bloomberg said, citing Sameh Al Qubaisi, director general of economic affairs at Abu Dhabi’s Department of Economic Development.

https://www.digitaljournal.com/business/uaes-adnoc-gas-to-start-trading-in-2-5bn-ipo/article




BP ventures back into oil frontiers to boost output

By Ron Bousso

LONDON (Reuters) – BP is ramping up oil exploration and drilling activity in frontier prospects as the energy giant tries to stem a decline in its oil and gas output after years of focusing on a shift to renewables to cut carbon emissions.

The move comes as companies try to balance pressure to slash climate-warming pollution against a desire to capitalise on soaring profits from oil and gas sales, even as governments work to tame energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

BP said that on Monday it started drilling a wildcat, or exploratory, well far off the east coast of Canada which could open a new oil province in one of the world’s most remote locations.

The Stena IceMax drilling ship arrived on Sunday at the site of the Ephesus well in the Orphan basin some 400 kilometres offshore, according to ship tracking data.

Early seismic testing shows the Orphan basin may hold up to 5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), one company source said. BP has drilled for oil there in the past with no success, but continues its search for resources.

It also holds a 35% stake in the nearby Bay du Nord offshore acreage operated by Norway’s Equinor, which is considering developing the block after making several discoveries there.

In addition BP has revived in recent weeks plans to develop a complex oil reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico named Kaskida that was shelved a decade ago due technical challenges. The new technology it will use to do so, if successful, could help unlock other similar resources around the world, it said.

GRAPHIC: BP’s spending https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BP-SPENDING/egpbyezxwvq/chart.png

STRATEGY SHIFT

BP largely abandoned exploration of new oil and gas frontiers after Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney in 2020 announced plans to reduce its oil and gas output by 40% by 2030 as part of an ambitious climate strategy.

Instead, BP focused on searching for small reservoirs in basins where it operates such as the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and Angola that can be easily and quickly linked to existing platforms.

But Looney decided in February to scale back plans to cut oil and gas output – already down some 10% from 2019 levels – in response to investor pressure, now aiming to cut output by 25% by 2030 to 2 million boe per day.

The focus has once again shifted to discovering, developing and acquiring new resources to offset a 3% to 5% natural decline of fields as reservoirs are depleted.

BP will reach its lower production target mostly through selling ageing oil and gas assets by 2030, while maintaining its underlying production by investing in new fields, Looney said in February.

The group has 15 oil and gas projects, including in Canada, Brazil, Senegal and Mauritania, which it is considering developing after 2025 to sustain its production, Chief Financial Officer Murray Auchincloss told Reuters.

In recent weeks, it has announced plans to acquire a stake from Shell in Australia’s giant Browse gas project, and is also in talks, together with Abu Dhabi’s national oil company, to buy a 50% stake in Israeli gas producer NewMed Energy.

While investing more in oil and gas, BP in February said it was also increasing spending on low-carbon fuels and renewables.

KASKIDA

BP now expects to make a final decision on the development of its 100% owned Kaskida reservoir by the second half of 2024, with the field expected to start production by the end of the decade, Auchincloss said.

The Kaskida prospect was discovered in 2006 some 250 miles southwest of New Orleans by the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, on which 4 years later a deadly blast occurred, leading to the largest oil spill in U.S. history.

The field, which holds an estimated 4 billion barrels of oil, was the heart of a large BP project to develop technology to drill in high pressure and high temperature offshore reservoirs.

The so-called Project 20K aimed to design and develop drilling rigs, subsea production system and blowout prevention equipment to produce oil and gas in reservoirs with extreme conditions of pressure of up to 20,000 pounds per square inch and temperatures as high as 350°F (175°C).

The project was however put on hold in 2013 due to its high costs and technical challenges.

BP has now decided to revive it thanks to improvements in geological analytics and drilling technology, Auchincloss said.

“We always kept Kaskida as an option, and it looks like its time has now come,” he told Reuters.

BP believes that the Kaskida prospect will allow it to unlock other, similar geological reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico, where it is one of the largest producers, he added.

The group is the front-runner in a licensing round for the Keathley Canyon lease, which contains already-discovered resources that could be used to expand the Kaskida project, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters.

(This story has been refiled to add a dropped word in paragraph 3)

(Reporting by Ron Bousso; Editing by Jan Harvey)




QatarEnergy enters Suriname offshore exploration

QatarEnergy has entered into two Production Sharing Contracts for Blocks 6 and 8 offshore the Republic of Suriname, following successful bids in these blocks, as previously announced in June 2021.
Pursuant to the signed agreements, QatarEnergy will own a 20% working interest in both blocks, where licensing of the new 3D seismic and associated exploration activities are planned. The remaining working interest is shared equally between TotalEnergies (Operator) and Staatsolies affiliate, Paradise Oil Company.
Commenting on the signing of the agreements, HE Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy Eng. Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi said: “We are pleased to have concluded our entry into Blocks 6 and 8 along with our partners, TotalEnergies and Staatsolie, and look forward to commencing exploration in this promising basin.”
HE Minister Al Kaabi added: “I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Surinamese authorities, Staatsolie, and our strategic partner TotalEnergies for their excellent commitment and support that resulted in the signing of these agreements.”
The contracts, and other key agreements, were signed on behalf of QatarEnergy by Manager of International Upstream and Exploration Ali Abdullah Al Mana during a ceremony hosted by Staatsolie, Surinames State Oil Company in Paramaribo, the capital of Suriname.
Located in the Southern part of offshore Suriname, the adjacent Blocks 6 and 8 are immediately South of Block 58 in shallow waters, with depths ranging between 40 and 65 metres.




Opec output falls on Iraq pipeline halt, Nigeria strike

Bloomberg
London

Opec’s oil production fell last month as Iraq’s exports were reduced by a pipeline suspension while a labour strike cut shipments from Nigeria.
Output from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries declined by 310,000 barrels a day to an average of 28.8mn, the lowest level in almost a year, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Opec and its allies have announced new production cutbacks starting this month to shore up global oil markets, but the biggest supply changes in April were unintentional.
Iraq accounted for about 80% of the drop.
A political spat between the central government in Baghdad and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has led to the halt of a pipeline that normally carries 500,000 barrels a day to international markets via Turkiye.
In Nigeria, a production recovery seen in the run-up to presidential elections has fizzled, with industrial action forcing Exxon Mobil Corp to renege on shipments from several terminals last month.
Still, the supply losses by Opec and its allies — both deliberate and accidental — are barely propping up an oil market that’s being roiled by fears over economic growth in China and the wider world.
Crude futures briefly sank below $72 a barrel in New York on Tuesday to the lowest since March.
While group leader Saudi Arabia drew another rebuke from the White House when the latest curbs were unveiled on April 2, the move is looking increasingly prescient as oil prices sag.
Production from the full 23-nation Opec+ alliance should decline by another 1.2mn barrels a day this month as those new curbs take effect. Russia, another member of the Opec+ coalition, also announced cutbacks in response to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, but the implementation so far remains unclear.
In terms of supplies in April, the largest adjustments were involuntary.
Iraq’s output slumped by 250,000 barrels a day to 4.13mn — the lowest since late 2021 — after Turkiye suspended the northern pipeline following a ruling by an international business tribunal. While Baghdad and Kurdish authorities have struck a temporary deal to get oil flowing again, “technical matters” are delaying the restart.
Nigeria retreated by 120,000 barrels a day to 1.32mn, the survey showed, reversing a surge seen earlier this year when the country reached an accord with a former warlord in the oil-rich Niger Delta region.
Workers at Exxon Mobil facilities in the country returned to work last week, allowing production and exports to resume after a two-week industrial action.
Bloomberg’s survey is based on ship-tracking data, information from officials and estimates from consultants including Kpler Ltd, Rapidan Energy Group and Rystad Energy.
Opec+ is due to meet on June 4 to review production levels for the second half of the year.