Twenty-four European Union countries complained to the U.S. State Department this week over President Donald Trump’s expansive use of sanctions to help influence American foreign policy goals, according to a European diplomat familiar with the communication.

The message, supported by all but three of the bloc’s member states, was given on Wednesday, said the diplomat, who asked not to be identified because the correspondence hasn’t been made public.

Read More: U.S. Threat of ‘Crushing’ Gas Pipeline Measures Riles Berlin

The so-called demarche was based on a July 17 statement by the EU’s top foreign policy official, Josep Borrell, in which he condemned U.S. intimidation tactics. He specifically cited Trump’s sanctions aimed at halting construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would link Russia and Germany.

“Our actions are aimed at curbing Russia’s malign activity,” according to an emailed statement from a State Department spokesperson. “We continue to work with our European partners to make it clear that Nord Stream 2 enables Russia to use its energy supplies as a political weapon in Europe and undermine Ukrainian security.”

Relations between the U.S. and the EU — and Germany in particular — have plumbed new lows, with Trump hitting his transatlantic allies with sweeping tariffs and pulling out of multilateral agreements such as the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal. Trump also announced plans to withdraw about 12,000 troops from Germany last month, saying Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government had been “delinquent” on defense spending.

‘Illegal’ Sanctions

“There was an informal outreach which the EU member states could join on a voluntary basis,” EU Spokeswoman Nabila Massrali told reporters on Friday when asked about the complaint. She added that the U.S. threatening sanctions against European companies was “part of a wider, worrying trend.”

The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has become a central point of tension between Merkel and Trump, who has blasted the project for sending “billions” to Russia. Merkel has called new sanctions aimed at the gas route illegal. Still, there is no consensus among the EU on Nord Stream, with countries such as Poland condemning the pipeline for bypassing eastern Europe and increasing the bloc’s reliance on Russian energy.

Last week, three Republican Senators ratcheted up tensions with a letter warning that a German Baltic Sea port would face “crushing legal and economic” sanctions if it continued to participate in the completion of the pipeline. Mukran Port, located in Merkel’s constituency, is a supply base for the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) undersea pipeline.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas this week said EU member states would discuss to what extent extraterritorial sanctions violate international law, as he renewed his condemnation of U.S. threats.

“No state has the right to dictate Europe’s energy policy with threats — and it won’t work,” Maas told reporters Monday alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during a daylong visit to Moscow.

All stakeholders of Nord Stream 2 still aim to complete the gas link, Lavrov said at the briefing. “There are reasons to assume that it will be done in the near future.”

OPEC said on Wednesday that world oil demand will fall more steeply in 2020 than previously forecast due to the pandemic and there were uncertainties about next year’s recovery.

World oil demand will fall by 9.06 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, more than the 8.95 million bpd decline expected a month ago.

Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus curtailed travel and economic activity. While some countries have eased lockdowns allowing demand to recover, concern over new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices and OPEC expects this to persist.

“Crude and product price developments in the second half of 2020 will continue to be impacted by concerns over a second wave of infections and higher global stocks,” OPEC said in the report.

OPEC stuck to its forecast that in 2021 oil demand would rebound by 7 million bpd but said the view was subject to large uncertainties that may result in “a negative impact on petroleum consumption,” such as demand for air travel, more fuel-efficient cars and more competition from other fuels.

“Almost all forecasters expect jet fuel in 2021 to struggle making up for lost demand,” OPEC said. “Gasoline demand will face pressure to return to 2019 levels.”

To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to a record supply cut of 9.7 million bpd that started on May 1, while the United States and other nations said they would pump less.

In the report, OPEC said its output rose by 980,000 bpd to 23.17 million bpd in July, largely because Saudi Arabia and other Gulf members ended extra voluntary cuts they had made in June.

That amounted to 97% compliance with the pledges, according to a Reuters calculation – lower than June’s figure of well above 100%.

Shale explorers parked more rigs last week as oil’s rebound proves insufficient to boost drilling work from the lowest level in more than a decade.
The number of active oil rigs in the US fell by four to 181, the least since June 2009, according to Baker Hughes Co data released on Friday.
With crude still well below its pre-pandemic peak earlier this year, producers are focusing on wells that were already drilled and waiting to be fracked as a cheaper alternative for adding production.
“Declines in drilling activity have continued, though at a decelerating rate in the latter half of” the second quarter, Connor Lynagh, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote last week in a note to investors. But, as activity appears to stabilise, the “recovery path remains a key debate.”
Worldwide lockdowns to prevent the spread of Covid-19 had a devastating impact on crude demand at a time when shale explorers were already struggling with too much debt and shareholders were urging them to spend less. While benchmark US oil futures have roughly doubled to $40 a barrel since the start of May, prices are still down by more than 30% for the year.
The rig count is a closely watched metric because it’s long been considered indicative of future crude production. The relationship is imperfect, however, because of the time lag between drilling a well and commencing production, as well as other factors such as the turning off of existing wells in response to price movements.

Ενας Οδικός Χάρτης Μπορεί να Βοηθήσει τα Παράκτια Κράτη να Επωφεληθούν του Υποθαλάσσιου Πλούτου

ΟΥΑΣΙΓΚΤΟΝ: Ο ειδικός σε θέματα ενέργειας, Ρούντι Μπαρούντι, στο νέο του βιβλίο αναδεικνύει μηχανισμούς μείωσης της έντασης, οι οποίοι συχνά ξεχνιούνται αλλά μπορούν να βοηθήσουν στην εκμετάλλευση πετρελαίου και φυσικού αερίου αξίας δισεκατομμυρίων δολλαρίων.

Το βιβλίο Διαφωνίες επί των Θαλασσίων Συνόρων στην Ανατολική Μεσόγειο: Μια Πρόταση Επίλυσης διανέμεται από το Ινστιτούτο Μπρούκινγκς και σκιαγραφεί το εκτενές νομικό και διπλωματικό πλαίσιο το οποίο διατίθεται για χώρες με διαφιλονεικούμενα θαλάσσια σύνορα. Ο συγγραφέας Ρούντι Μπαρούντι συζητά την αυξάνουσα επιρροή του Διεθνούς Δικαίου της Θαλάσσης υπό την αιγίδα των Ηνωμένων Εθνών (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea – UNCLOS), οι κανόνες του οποίου αποτελούν πια την βάση για την επίλυση όλων, σχεδόν, των διαπραγματεύσεων και συμφωνιών στην θάλασσα. Εξηγεί, επίσης, πως οι πρόσφατες εξελίξεις  στον επιστημονικό και τεχνολογικό τομέα – και ειδικά στην χαρτογράφηση ακριβείας – έχουν αυξήσει περαιτέρω την επιρροή των κανόνων του Διεθνούς Δικαίου της Θάλασσας, αφαιρώντας κάθε ενδεχόμενη ασάφεια από οποιαδήποτε διαπραγμάτευση που βασίζεται στους κανόνες του Δικαίου.

Το βιβλίο εστιάζει στην ανατολική Μεσόγειο, όπου οι πρόσφατες ανακαλύψεις υδρογονανθράκων ανέδειξαν το γεγονός ότι τα περισσότερα θαλάσσια σύνορα της περιοχής παραμένουν ακαθόριστα. Η αβεβαιότητα την οποία δημιουργεί αυτή η κατάσταση όχι μόνο καθυστερεί την εκμετάλλευση των πόρων και την διοχέτευση του πλούτου προς όφελος των κοινωνιών, αλλά δημιουργεί και κινδύνους θερμών επεισοδίων και πολέμων. Τέτοιου είδους προβλήματα υπάρχουν σε όλη την Γή. Ο Μπαρούντι σημειώνει, ωστόσο, ότι η δίκαιη επίλυσή τους σε μία περιοχή μπορεί να ενδυναμώσει την εμπιστοσύνη στους πολύπλευρους μηχανισμούς σε κάθε περιοχή.

Σε περίπτωση, σημειώνει, που οι χώρες της ανατολικής Μεσογείου συμφωνούσαν σε μια δίκαιη επίλυση των διαφορών τους με βάση το Διεθνές Δίκαιο, «θα ήταν μια έμπρακτη απόδειξη ότι η μεταπολεμική αρχιτεκτονική συλλογικής ασφάλειας παραμένει όχι μόνο εφικτή αλλά και απαραίτητη… θα απεδείκνυε σε όλον τον κόσμο ότι κανένα εμπόδιο δεν είναι τόσο μεγάλο και καμμία ιστορική εχθρότητα τόσο βαθιά ριζωμένη ώστε να μην υπερσκελίζεται από τον βασικό κανόνα στον οποίο συναίνεσαν όλα τα μέλη των Ηνωμένων Εθνών με την συμμετοχή τους σε αυτόν – την ευθύνη να επιλύουν τις διαφορές τους χωρίς την χρήση ή την απειλή βίας.»

Το βιβλίο μας υπενθυμίζει πως υπάρχουν μοχλοί οι οποίοι μπορούν να αμβλύνουν τις διπλωματικές ανισότητες, και αυτό είναι ιδιαίτερα χρήσιμο σε μια εποχή όπου η όλη ιδέα της πολυπλευρικής προσέγγισης βάλλεται από τις ίδιες χώρες οι οποίες την δημιούργησαν. Ο τρόπος γραφής του βιβλίου ζωντανεύει ένα θεματικό πλέγμα ιστορίας, γεωγραφίας, δικαίου και χαρτογραφίας, καθιστώντας τα θέματα αυτά προσιτά στο ευρύ κοινό στο οποίο απευθύνεται, καθώς και σε πολιτικούς και διπλωμάτες.

Ο Μπαρούντι εργάζεται εδώ και τέσσερις δεκαετίες στον ενεργειακό τομέα. Ανάμεσα στις πολυεθνικές εταιρείες, κυβερνήσεις και διεθνείς θεσμούς που έχει συμβουλέψει στο διάστημα αυτό συγκαταλέγονται τα Ηνωμένα Εθνη, η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή, το Διεθνές Νομισματικό Ταμείο και η Παγκόσμια Τράπεζα. Οι εξειδικευμένες γνώσεις του βρίσκονται στους τομείς του πετρελαίου και φυσικού αερίου, τα πετροχημικά, τον ηλεκτρισμό, την ενεργειακή ασφάλεια και την μεταρρύθμιση του ενεργειακού τομέα για να αντιμετωπίσει περιβαλλοντικά ζητήματα, την αγορά του άνθρακα, τις ιδιωτικοποιήσεις, και τις υποδομές. Είναι Διευθύνων Σύμβουλος της ανεξάρτητης συμβουλευτικής εταιρείας Qatar Energy and Environment Holding, με έδρα την Ντόχα του Κατάρ.

Το βιβλίο αυτό είναι απόσταγμα πολυετούς προσωπικής έρευνας, ανάλυσης και υπεράσπισης θέσεων του Μπαρούντι. Την επιμέλεια του κειμένου ανέλαβε η Debra L. Cagan, (Distinguished Energy Fellow, Transatlantic Leadership Network) και ο Sasha Toperich (Senior Executive Vice President, Transatlantic Leadership Network).

Το βιβλίο Διαφωνίες επί των Θαλασσίων Συνόρων στην Ανατολική Μεσόγειο: Μια Πρόταση Επίλυσης εκδίδεται από το Transatlantic Leadership Network (TLN), μια ένωση δικηγόρων, παικτών του ιδιωτικού τομέα και αναλυτών οι οποίοι στοχεύουν στον διαρκή εκσυγχρονισμό των σχέσεων Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών και Ευρωπαϊκής Ενωσης. Η αρχική μορφή του βιβλίου ήταν ηλεκτρονική. Τώρα διανέμεται από τις Εκδόσεις του Ινστιτιούτου Μπρούκινγκς, που ιδρύθηκαν το 1916 για την έκδοση ερευνών του Ινστιτούτου, το οποίο θεωρείται από πολλούς ως το πιο αξιοσέβαστο ινστιτιύτο έρευνας των ΗΠΑ.

Πολλοί εξειδικευμένοι παρατηρητές πλέκουν το εγκώμιο του βιβλίου. Παραθέτουμε λίγα αποσπάσματα:

Douglas Hengel, Professional Lecturer in Energy, Resources and Environment Program, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Senior Fellow at German Marshall Fund of the United States, and former State Department official: “Μέσα από αυτό το στοχαστικό και γλαφυρό βιβλίο, ο Ρούντι Μπαρούντι μας δίνει ένα πλαίσιο… το οποίο μας δείχνει τον δρόμο προς μια δίκαιη και ειρηνική λύση… οι χώρες της περιοχής, καθώς και η Ευρωπαϊκή Ενωση και οι Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, θα έπρεπε να ασπαστούν την προσέγγιση του Μπαρούντι.

Andrew Novo, Associate Professor of Strategic Studies, National Defense University: “… Ενα καλά ισορροπημένο, καινοτόμο και θετικό μήνυμα το οποίο μπορεί να βοηθήσει πολλά θέματα να προοδεύσουν που δεν φαίνονται να επιδέχονται επίλυσης. Χρσιμοποιώντας το Διεθνές Δίκαιο, γεω-στοιχεία υψηλής ακρίβειας και μια ισχυρή οικονομική λογική, ο Μπαρούντι προσφέρει ένα πειστικό επιχείρημα υπέρ ενός συμβιβασμού, εφόσον, φυσικά, οι εμπλεκόμενες πλευρές θέλουν να ακούσουν.”

Road Map Can Help Coastal Countries Tap Offshore Resources

WASHINGTON, D.C.: A new book by energy expert Roudi Baroudi highlights often overlooked mechanisms that could defuse tensions and help unlock billions of dollars’ worth of oil and gas.

“Maritime Disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean: the Way Forward” – distributed by Brookings Institution Press – outlines the extensive legal and diplomatic framework available to countries looking to resolve contested borders at sea. In it, Baroudi reviews the emergence and (growing) influence of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), whose rules and standards have become the basis for virtually all maritime negotiations and agreements. He also explains how recent advances in science and technology, in particular precision mapping, have expanded the impact of UNCLOS guidelines by taking the guesswork out of any dispute-resolution process based on them.

As the title suggests, much of the study centers on the Eastern Mediterranean, where recent oil and gas discoveries have underlined the fact that most of the region’s maritime boundaries remain unresolved. The resulting uncertainty not only slows development of the resources in question (and reinvestment of the proceeds to address poverty and other societal challenges), but also increases the risk of one or more shooting wars. Baroudi notes, however, that just as such problems and their consequences exist around the globe, so might their fair and equitable resolution in one region work to restore faith in multilateralism for peoples and their leaders in all regions.

Were the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean to agree under UNCLOS rules to settle their differences fairly and equitably, he writes, “it would give a chance to demonstrate that the post-World War II architecture of collective security remains not merely a viable approach but also a vital one … It would show the entire world that no obstacles are so great, no enmity so ingrained, and no memories so bitter that they cannot be overcome by following the basic rules to which all UN member states have subscribed by joining it: the responsibility to settle disputes without violence or the threat thereof.”

Baroudi’s work offers both general and specific reminders that levers exist which can level the diplomatic playing field, a useful contribution at a time when the entire concept of multilateralism is under assault from some of the very capitals that once championed its creation. In addition, it is written in an engaging style that makes several disciplines – from history and geography to law and cartography – accessible and interesting to everyone from academics and policymakers to engineers and the general public.

Baroudi’s background consists of more than four decades in the energy sector, during which time he has helped design policy for companies, governments, and multilateral institutions, including the United Nations, the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. His areas of expertise range from oil and gas, petrochemicals, power, energy security, and energy-sector reform to environmental impacts and protections, carbon trading, privatization, and infrastructure. He currently serves as CEO of Energy and Environment Holding, an independent consultancy based in Doha, Qatar.

The book has been distilled from years of Baroudi’s personal research, analysis, and advocacy, with editing by Debra L. Cagan (Distinguished Energy Fellow, Transatlantic Leadership Network) and Sasha Toperich (Senior Executive Vice President, Transatlantic Leadership Network).

“Maritime Disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean: the Way Forward” is published by the Transatlantic Leadership Network (TLN), an international association of practitioners, private sector leaders, and policy analysts working to ensure that US-EU relations keep pace with a rapidly globalizing world. Distribution has been entrusted to Brookings Institution Press, founded in 1916 as an outlet for research by scholars associated with the Brookings Institution, widely regarded as the most respected think-tank in the United States.

The TLN hosted a webinar on Thursday to launch the e-book version, with guests and participants joining via Zoom from cities around the world. Following introductory remarks by Cagan and former US Ambassador John B. Craig, a lively discussion took place with a panel featuring Baroudi and two very relevant representatives from the US State Department – Jonathan Moore (Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs), Kurt Donnelly (Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Diplomacy, Bureau of Energy Resources) and Dr. Charles Ellinas (Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center)

Prior to the launch event, the book had garnered advance praise from key observers, including:

Douglas Hengel, Professional Lecturer in Energy, Resources and Environment Program, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Senior Fellow at German Marshall Fund of the United States, and former State Department official: “In this thoughtful and well-argued book, Roudi Baroudi provides a framework … guiding us down a path to an equitable and peaceful resolution … The countries of the region, as well as the United States and the European Union, should embrace Baroudi’s approach …”

Andrew Novo, Associate Professor of Strategic Studies, National Defense University: “… A balanced, innovative and positive message that can provide progress for a series of apparently insoluble problems. Using international law, highly detailed geo-data, and compelling economic logic, Baroudi makes a powerful case for compromise … if only the opposing sides will listen.”

By Roudi Baroudi

Some of the latest punditry has it that Qatar’s economy is teetering on the brink of disaster because of the COVID-19 crisis, which has been steadily eroding demand for the country’s most important export, natural gas. Obviously the situation is less than ideal, but much of the doom and gloom stems from a failure to appreciate just how well prepared the country is for all manner of obstacles.

Journalists and other observers have watched the market for crude oil collapse to the point where prices for some futures contracts recently went into negative territory – i.e. producers in some parts of North America actually had to pay customers to take oil off their hands. This, in turn, is causing a slew of US and Canadian oil companies, especially smaller ones, to stop extracting crude, and many are going bankrupt. Similar pressures will arise for gas producers, these folks argue, and since Qatar is the world’s leading producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), it will face the biggest problems.

To be sure, the global crisis caused by COVID-19 has subjected the entire world to some freakish pressures, including unprecedented drop-offs in demand for certain goods and services, among them several energy products previously soaked up by (now idled) planes, trains, and automobiles (not to mention cruise ships, factories, hotels, etc.). Thus far the consequences for LNG have been less dramatic than those for crude oil, but nor can they be ignored, especially for developing countries whose economies and financial stability are heavily dependent on constant flows of gas revenues from exports.

For multiple reasons, however, Qatar has to be considered far more resilient than other major LNG producers. For one thing, it has much deeper pockets that give it considerable wherewithal to withstand even a prolonged period of lower gas revenues. For another, Qatar’s energy interests go far beyond the extraction of its gas resources for export. It is now fully engaged at several points along the hydrocarbon value chain, and this in multiple countries, all of which provide diversification of revenues and therefore dilution of negative impacts. Perhaps most importantly, for almost three years now, the country has been fortifying itself against the effects of an illegal economic and transport blockade led by Saudi Arabia and followed by several other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states, plus Egypt and others. To say the least, Qatar has proved a tough nut to crack: in fact, the experience has made the whole country much more efficient, far more self-sufficient, and even more self-confident than ever before.

One of the drivers of this success has been government-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP), one of the strongest and most influential companies on the planet, and it has not got to this position by simply opening a spigot in the sand and then spending the proceeds. Instead, QP reached its current lofty status by, first, making its bet on LNG at precisely the right time in history, just as the environmental concerns associated with oil made natural gas a more palatable choice and the world’s energy mix started transitioning to a higher proportion of renewables and other alternative technologies. Second, Qatar then used its role as the world’s most important LNG exporter to become a force for stability in a burgeoning global gas market, maintaining safe and reliable supplies that have allowed customers around the world to grow their economies.

Second, QP has not remained a one-trick pony. Instead, it and its subsidiaries have diversified with gusto – and not just in the usual sense of producing petrochemicals, aluminum, and fertilizers on their home turf. Rather, the company has reached far beyond Qatar, the GCC countries, and even the broader Middle East and North Africa region to make acquisitions around the globe. Acting alone or in concert with major partners like Britain’s Shell, France’s Total, Italy’s ENI, and the USA’s Chevron and ExxonMobil, the past couple of years have seen QP take up or renew stakes in exploration, production, and/or processing assets in at least a dozen countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Cyprus, Congo Brazzaville, Guyana, Ivory Coast. Kenya, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Oman, South Africa, and even the United Arab Emirates.

Perhaps the biggest play of the past few years has been in the United States, where QP’s activities have included partnering with ExxonMobil (Qatar’s single largest foreign investor) for a $10 billion project to build a two-train LNG export facility adjacent to the existing Golden Pass import terminal in Texas.  QP also added to its footprint in the USA by teaming with Chevron Phillips Chemical, a joint venture between Chevron and Phillips 66, to develop what could be the world’s largest ethane cracker and derivatives units somewhere on the US Gulf Coast. QP will have a 49% stake in the $8 billion complex, and Chevron Phillips Chemical has agreed to build virtual twin of it at Ras Laffan – hub of Qatar’s gas industry.

Alongside its solid American investments, the company also continues to consolidate its access to existing markets in Europe and Asia, and to increase its capacity to supply those markets. It has recently signed long-term processing and/or storage contracts at terminal facilities serving key LNG markets, including Montoir-de-Bretagne, France (3 million tons per annum [MTA] until 2035), and Zeebrugge, Belgium (100% of regasification capacity until 2044). In addition, QP subsidiaries hold stakes in major terminals like the United Kingdom’s South Hook (67.5%) and Italy’s offshore Adriatic facility (23%). In April, it signed a $3 billion contract to book a Chinese shipbuilder for the construction of new LNG carriers, some 100 of which it expects to need in the coming few years.

All the while, QP has continued to rack up agreements with both new and existing customers, including LNG sales to Kuwait and Vietnam; naphta deals with Japan’s Marubeni Corporation, Shell, Thailand Chemicals, and Vietnam; condensate feedstock sales to ExxonMobil in Singapore; and liquefied petroleum gas contracts with China’s Oriental Energy and Wanhua Chemicals.

And all this is not to mention QP’s massive undertaking to expand LNG output from 77 MTA to more than 110 MTA. When the COVID crisis hit, far from fretting the short- and medium-term obstacles, the company’s response was to double down and take advantage of lower prices for construction materials by increasing capacity to a whopping 126 MTA by 2027.

It should be recalled, too, that QP has managed all of these feats while its home country has been fending off the aforementioned Saudi-led siege. Qatar’s public and private sectors alike have demonstrated world-class resilience since the blockade was imposed in 2017, so there is no reason to believe they will shrink before this new challenge. On the contrary, Qatar is – and will remain – a trusted source of stabilization in global markets.

Whatever the temporary inconveniences caused by the pandemic, both Qatar and QP remain bullish on the future – and with good reason. They did not get to where they are by accident, rather by well-timed investments and a commitment to ensuring stable markets for their customers. In fact, it could be fairly stated that Qatar and its flagship gas company created the modern global gas market, and they did so in such a way as to deliberately avoid much of the volatility associated with crude oil – for instance by eschewing the establishment of a cartel like OPEC. The current crisis could well require Qatar to make uncomfortable decisions, but its long-term trajectory – to keep expanding its role as a force for good in energy circles by providing win-win scenarios – is unlikely to be affected.

Roudi Baroudi is a four-decade veteran of the energy industry who currently serves as CEO of Energy and Environment Holding, an independent consultancy based in Doha.

“فتح ابواب السلام والازدهار: كيفية حل نزاعات الحدود البحرية في شرق البحر الأبيض المتوسط” بحث علمي وعملي حققه رودي بارودي الخبير في صناعة الطاقة منذ أربعة عقود وقد نشر بالاشتراك مع معهد عصام فارس التابع للجامعة الأميركية في بيروت ، وهو يقدم للمهتمين تحليلا واضحا للأبعاد الحاضرة والاستنتاجات المباشرة.
بدأ بارودي بوصف احتياطيات المنطقة المؤكدة والمحتملة من النفط والغاز الموجودة في اعماق البحر، وتحديداً كيف يمكن الاستغلال الآمن والفعال لهذه الموارد أن يحول الاقتصادات الوطنية وان يؤثر على العلاقات المضطربة في كثير من الأحيان بين الدول السبع (اليونان وتركيا وسوريا وقبرص ولبنان وفلسطين / إسرائيل ومصر). ثم يشرح كيف أدت الخلافات الحدودية العالقة إلى الحد من عمليات الاستكشاف والتطوير البحرية في معظم المنطقة – ويخلص في هذا الفصل الى شرح كيف يمكن أن تؤدي التوترات بين الدول إلى مزيد من عدم الاستقرار وحتى الى الحرب.
بعد ذلك يفصل التقرير آفاق حل النزاعات البحرية، ويوضح أنه على الرغم من ظواهر الامور المعقدة، فإن أدوات الحل بسيطة ومتاحة بسهولة. الحل الوحيد بحسب بارودي أن تتبنى الحكومات المعنية وبشكل كلي، المبدأ الأساسي للأمم المتحدة والنظام الدولي برمته الذي تم العمل عليه منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية: أي الحل السلمي للنزاعات. وبمجرد اقرار هذا المبدأ ، فان أبحاثه تؤكد أن مزيجًا منطقيا من القانون والعلوم والتكنولوجيا يجعل ترسيم الحدود البحرية عملية بسيطة وسهلة وتفيد جميع الأطراف.
باختصار، يؤكد التقرير بأنه على الرغم من أن بعض المراقبين والنقاد والسياسيين فقدوا صبرهم من نظام وقواعد الحلول الذي تقوم عليه الأمم المتحدة منذ عام 1945، إلا أننا في الواقع علينا اكتشاف المدى الكامل لفائدة هذا النظام – ليس فقط في منع الصراعات المسلحة ، ولكن حتى في إزالة بعض الأسباب الأكثر شيوعًا للنزاعات في المقام الأول. من الناحية النظرية على الأقل ، اهمية هذه القواعد وهذا النظام يكمن بأن الدول الصغيرة لم تعد تحت رحمة الدول الكبيرة لأن الجميع لديهم نفس سبل الوصول إلى الوسائل القانونية لحل المشاكل العالقة فيما بينهم اضافة الى الأدوات اللازمة لممارستها.
يوضح التقرير أيضًا كيف أن التقدم التكنولوجي يجعل من الممكن رسم المعالم الجغرافية – حتى في ألاعماق البحرية- بدقة غير مسبوقة، مما يعني أن تحديد الحدود البحرية هو امر سهل ويمكن القيام به في حال توفر الارادة لدى الافرقاء. وحتى إذا لم يكن بالإمكان الاتفاق على الحدود الفعلية لسبب ما (سياسية في الاجمال) ، فإن الأدوات القانونية الحديثة لديها أيضًا آليات يمكن من خلالها للمدّعين المتنافسين مشاركة الإيرادات أو الابتعاد عن بعضهم البعض وحتى إنهاء نزاعاتهم حبيا او قانونيا. ويؤكد بارودي بان المفقود لدى القيادات الوطنية هو الحس السليم والإرادة الطيبة للتوصل إلى مثل هذه الاستنتاجات.
ويردف أنه بمجرد أن يلجؤا الى مثل هذا الاجراء، فإن الواقع الحالي – في الشرق المتوسط على الأقل – يمكن أن يعرف تغييرًا حقيقيًا في قواعد اللعبة الحالية. فالدول التي ستنتج الغاز ستخفض حكما تكاليف الطاقة الوطنية الخاصة بها ما يولد عائدات كبيرة من الإنتاج و/ أو الصادرات، وحتى الدول غير المنتجة ستستفيد من استضافة مرافق المعالجة أو النقل. وفي أفضل السيناريوهات، قد تنضم البلدان الأكثر حظًا إلى خطة إقليمية لتقاسم العائدات. ستسمح هذه التحسينات المالية باستثمارات طال انتظارها في التعليم والرعاية الصحية والنقل والبيئة والمياه النظيفة والحد من الفقر. اضافة الى استقرار سياسي، اذ سيكون لكل من الخصوم المعتادين (مثل إسرائيل ضد لبنان، وتركيا مقابل قبرص، واليونان مقابل تركيا، إلخ…) حافزًا مستمرًا للتقليل من الاحتكاكات التي قد تعطل ازدهار الاستفادة من الطاقة.
رودي أ بارودي، لبناني الجنسية، يشغل حاليًا منصب الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة الطاقة والبيئة القابضة، وهي شركة استشارية مستقلة مقرها في الدوحة، قطر. بعد أن قدم المشورة للشركات والحكومات والكيانات المتعددة الأطراف بشأن السياسة الفضلى في الطاقة، تركيزه الحالي يقوم على ضمان أن تبدأ صناعة الطاقة الناشئة في وطنه بداية صحية وصحيحة من خلال منع الفساد، وتجنب النزاعات الدولية، وتأمين مشاركة كبرى شركات النفط العالميةفي عمليات الاستكشاف. نتيجة ظهوره المتكرر في وسائل الإعلام والمؤتمرات، أصبح أحد أبرز المؤيدين لـ “مكاسب السلام” التي ستؤمنها تنمية الطاقة الإقليمية لجميع دول شرق البحر الأبيض المتوسط.
تم تأسيس المعهد في عام 2006، وهو يشدد على البحث المستقل في السياسة العامة والشؤون الدولية، بالإضافة إلى “سد الفجوة بين الأوساط الأكاديمية وصناع السياسات”، خاصة فيما يتعلق بالعالم العربي. تتضمن أهدافه إحداث تأثير من خلال “إعلام عمليات صنع السياسات والتأثير على النقاش العام”.

رودي بارودي

BEIRUT: The Eastern Mediterranean could emerge as both a global energy hub and a powerful endorsement of international law if its coastal states get smart about settling their maritime boundaries, a new research report argues.

Written by four-decade energy-industry veteran Roudi Baroudi and published in conjunction with the American University of Beirut’s Issam Fares Institute (IFI), “Unlocking Peace and Prosperity: How to Resolve Maritime Border Disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea” offers both multi-dimensional analysis and straightforward conclusions.

Baroudi starts by describing the region’s proved and potential reserves of undersea oil and (mostly) gas, specifically how the safe and effective exploitation of these resources could transform both national economies and the often troubled relationships among the country’s seven states (Greece, Turkey, Syria, Cyprus, Lebanon, Palestine/Israel, and Egypt). He then explains how outstanding border disputes have severely curtailed offshore exploration and development in most of the region – and how the resulting tensions could lead to further instability and even war.

The report then details the prospects for resolving these disputes, demonstrating that despite much of what currently passes for conventional wisdom, the tools for the job are both relatively straightforward and readily available. The key, Baroudi, asserts, is that the governments in question need to embrace, once and for all, the bedrock principle of the United Nations and the entire international system built up since World War II: the peaceful resolution of disputes. Once that happens, his research indicates that a combination of law, science, and technology makes maritime boundary delineation a simple and even predictable process that benefits all parties.

In short, the report argues that although some critics have lost patience with the rules-based system fostered by the UN since 1945, we actually are on the cusp of discovering the full extent of that system’s utility – not just in preventing armed conflict, but even in removing some of the most common reasons for disputes in the first place. Theoretically at least, this system means that small nations are no longer at the mercy of larger ones because all have access to the same legal remedies and the tools to exercise these.

In the case of maritime boundaries, the primary implement is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which lays down the legal standards and scientific measurements by which offshore boundaries are to be drawn. The vast majority of the world’s countries are signatories to UNCLOS, and even those that are not remain subject to at least some of its tenets, and/or to the jurisdiction of institutions like the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Over the past couple of decades, the ICJ and other courts, as well as various treaties, negotiations, and arbitration findings, have established a large body of precedents that take the guesswork out of border delineation, giving more countries greater incentive to subject their legitimate claims to qualified scrutiny.

As if all this were not enough, the report also outlines how technological advances now make it possible for geographical features – even deep beneath the waves – to be mapped with unprecedented accuracy, meaning that setting maritime borders is virtual child’s play. And even if the actual border can’t be agreed for some reason (probably an arcane political one), the modern legal toolbox also includes mechanisms by which rival claimants can share revenues or at least stay out of each other’s way until such time as they can end their disputes. All that’s missing, Baroudi says, are the good sense and the good will for national leaderships to reach such conclusions an act accordingly.

Once they do, he contends, the results – in the Eastern Med, at least – could be genuinely game-changing. Each of the new gas producers would lower their national energy costs and generate significant revenues from production and/or exports, and even non-producing nations stand to benefit by hosting processing or transport facilities. In a best-case scenario, the luckiest countries might accede to a regional revenue-sharing plan. These financial improvements would allow long-overdue investments in education, healthcare, transport, and poverty reduction. All the while, with their respective economic interests more closely aligned and therefore similarly dependent on regional stability, each of the usual antagonists (e.g. Israel vs. Lebanon, Turkey vs. Cyprus, Greece vs. Turkey, etc.) would have an ongoing incentive to minimize frictions that might derail the energy boom.

A Lebanese national, Baroudi currently serves as CEO of Energy and Environment Holding, an independent consultancy based in Doha, Qatar. Having made a career out of advising companies, governments, and multilateral entities on a energy policy, his recent focus has been on ensuring that his homeland’s nascent energy industry gets off to a healthy start by preventing local corruption, avoiding international disputes, and securing the participation of major international oil companies. As a result of his frequent media and conference appearances, he has become one of the most prominent proponents for the “peace dividends” that regional energy development would pay to all East Mediterranean countries.

Established in 2006, the IFI emphasizes independent research into public policy and international affairs, as well as “bridging the gap between academia and policymaking”, particularly as these regard the Arab world. Its self-set objectives include making an impact by “informing policymaking processes and influencing the public debate”.

Roudi Baroudi

Total has signed two Exploration and Production Agreements (EPAs) for Blocks 4 and 9, with the Lebanese Republic.

The EPAs were awarded as part of the 1st offshore licensing round, launched by the Lebanese government in 2017, to the consortium led by Total acting as operator (40%) and composed of ENI (40%) and Novatek (20%) as partners.

Both Blocks are located in water depths ranging from 1,400 to 1,800 meters knowing that Block 4 is central while Block 9 is in the southern part of the country.

As per an international tender, Tungsten Explorer drillship, owned by the company Vantage Drilling, was contracted to start the drilling activity in Block 4. The drillship reached Lebanese waters on 25 February 2020. Drilling of the first exploration well on Block 4 in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Lebanon was completed on 26 April, 2020. Traces of gas were observed confirming the presence of a hydrocarbon system, but no reservoirs were encountered. Based on the data acquired during drilling, studies will be conducted to understand the results and further evaluate the exploration potential of the Total operated consortium blocks and the Lebanese offshore.

EXPLORATION DRILLING IN BLOCK 4

The drilling aimed at evaluating the possible presence of hydrocarbons and was carried by a dynamically positioned drillship, unanchored to the sea bottom. It was competed to a depth of 4,076 meters and through approximately 1,500 meters of water depth. The drilling activity took place 30 km North of Beirut.

STEPS OF OFFSHORE EXPLORATION DRILLING

An exploration well does not allow the production of hydrocarbons however, it verifies their presence and allows the collection of many essential information such as: pressure, temperature, permeability, composition of the geological layers and nature of the fluid within the rocks. The collected data during this stage will validate or not the presence of hydrocarbons. For more info, watch the video.