Oil and gas investment increased by 7% y-o-y to reach $718bn in 2022 and is expected to rise further in 2023, but looming uncertainties may deter investment, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum said in its fourth edition of its Annual Gas Market Report Wednesday.
In 2023, oil and gas investment is expected to rise further, on the back of greater investment in the upstream industry and LNG import terminals.
However, several looming uncertainties, including a slowdown in global economic growth, tight financial conditions, inflation, and high energy price volatility, may deter investment, GECF noted.
Spot gas and LNG prices in Europe and Asia reached record highs in 2022, with significant volatility throughout the year. This, the report noted, was mainly due to a tight LNG market as Europe’s LNG demand surged to replace lower pipeline gas imports.
In 2022, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) spot gas prices in Europe averaged $38/MMBtu, 136% higher y-o-y, while Northeast Asia (NEA) LNG spot prices averaged $33/MMBtu, a 79% increase y-o-y.
This shift in prices made Europe the premier LNG market for suppliers, as TTF spot prices maintained a high premium over Asian LNG spot prices. In 2023, spot prices are expected to remain volatile.
Factors such as a relatively mild winter, high gas storage levels in Europe, and weakened gas demand growth in the midst of a slowdown in global economic growth may exert downward pressure on spot prices.
However, there may be some upward pressure on spot prices this year due to the anticipated recovery in China’s gas demand,
higher imports in price-sensitive countries in Asia Pacific, and a rebound in gas demand in the industrial sector.
Additionally, any further supply disruptions or extreme weather conditions during the year may also boost prices, GECF said.
Energy security concerns took precedence over climate change mitigation goals in 2022, with policymakers focusing on meeting the energy needs of their people, the report said.
Following a record rebound in 2021, global gas consumption declined in 2022, but is expected to resume growth in 2023 and reach an all-time high level, with the power generation sector remaining the largest consumer of gas.
US, China, and some emerging countries in Asia Pacific are forecasted to drive the growth of global gas consumption in 2023, it said.
GECF secretary-general Mohamed Hamel said, “The Annual Gas Market Report is comprehensive and I hope it will become an essential tool for anyone interested in natural gas.”
The publication comes at a time when natural gas markets are undergoing fundamental transformations in terms of physical flows, investment, trade, and market functioning.
“The developments in the gas industry are an indication of the bright prospects for the expansion of the global gas industry, as natural gas is set to play a pivotal role in socio-economic development and towards just and inclusive energy transitions,” Hamel added.

GECF LNG exports have jumped 12% (1.74mn tonnes) year-on-year (y-o-y) to 16.45mn tonnes in February, driven by Qatar, which is the forum’s top liquefied natural gas exporter, Doha-headquartered Gas Exporting Countries Forum said in its latest monthly report.
The surge in GECF’s LNG exports was driven by Qatar (+0.84mn tonnes), Norway (+0.36mn tonnes), Malaysia (+0.33mn tonnes), Egypt (+0.15mn tonnes), Mozambique (+0.15mn tonnes), Angola (+0.14mn tonnes), Algeria (+0.10mn tonnes), Trinidad and Tobago (+0.08mn tonnes), Russia (+0.05mn tonnes) and Peru (+0.02mn tonnes).
In contrast, LNG exports declined in the United Arab Emirates (-0.26mn tonnes) and Nigeria (-0.21mn tonnes), GECF noted.
Looking at Qatar and Angola, lower maintenance activity at LNG facilities in both countries compared to a year earlier boosted the countries’ exports.
In Norway, the continued ramp-up in production from the Hammerfest LNG facility, following its restart in June 2022, drove the increase in exports.
Furthermore, higher feedgas availability for LNG exports in Malaysia, Egypt, Algeria and Trinidad and Tobago supported the increase in exports from these countries.
With regard to Mozambique, the ramp-up in production from the Coral South FLNG facility supported the rise in LNG exports.
On the other hand, the decline in LNG exports from the UAE was attributed to maintenance activity at the Das Island LNG facility.
In Nigeria, lower feedgas availability for LNG exports contributed to the lower LNG exports.
NLNG declared force majeure on feedgas supply to the liquefaction facility in January 2023, which remained in effect in February, GECF noted.
In February 2023, global LNG exports rose sharply y-o-y by 11% (3.48mn tonnes) to 34.00mn tonnes.
Stronger LNG exports from GECF member countries, non-GECF countries and higher LNG reloads drove the growth in global LNG exports.
Non-GECF countries were the largest LNG exporters during the month with a share of 49.5% in global LNG exports, followed by GECF (48.4%) and LNG reloads (2.1%).
In comparison to February 2022, the shares of GECF member countries and LNG reloads increased from 48.2% and 0.8% respectively while the share of non-GECF countries declined from 51.0%, the monthly report showed.
At a country level, the US was the largest exporter in February 2023, followed by Australia and Qatar.
For January and February of this year, combined, global LNG exports rose by 6.7% (4.33mn tonnes) y-o-y to 69.44mn tonnes, GECF noted.

Nakilat, whose liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers account for about 10% of the global LNG carrying capacity, has said its greater fleet capacity and increased operational efficiency provide it with a “competitive” edge as its expands its international shipping portfolio through the recent strategic expansion of Nakilat’s fleet with an additional four LNG carriers, and the improved performance of its joint ventures and support services operating in the shipyard,
Nakilat has achieved sustainable and long-term growth over the past year, demonstrating its commitment to innovative sustainability and operational excellence, its chairman Abdulaziz al-Muftah told shareholders yesterday at the annual general assembly meeting, which approved the 2022 results and 13% dividend.
“This commitment has provided Nakilat with a greater fleet capacity and increased operational efficiency, providing us with a competitive edge in the LNG shipping sector, as the company expands its international shipping portfolio,” he said.
With a fleet strength of 74 vessels – one of the largest LNG shipping fleets in the world, Nakilat’s portfolio comprises 69 LNG carriers, four liquefied petroleum gas carriers and one floating storage regasification unit – the company is backbone of the transportation link in Qatar’s LNG supply chain, according to him.
“Our LNG fleet has a combined carrying capacity of over 9mn cubic metres, which is about 10% of the global LNG fleet carrying capacity,” he said, adding the majority of Nakilat’s vessels are fixed with long-term charters to reputable counterparties, creating a “steady and healthy” cash flow for the company.
Nakilat followed through its expansion plans with the delivery of “Global Sealine”, a technologically advanced LNG carrier new-build during 2022, demonstrating commitment to innovation, sustainability, and operational excellence.
“This allowed Nakilat to provide greater fleet capacity and flexibility to its customers and gave the company a significant competitive advantage in the energy transportation sector,” al-Muftah said, adding this also contributed towards the company’s efforts at reducing its carbon footprint and operating sustainably apace growing its international shipping portfolio.
He said the company’s resilience and the convergent efforts have enabled its sustained growth momentum and business continuity, creating immense value for both its customers and shareholders.
With a solid sense of direction from the company’s long-term expansion strategy and opportunities that re-emphasised its importance in achieving its targets, Nakilat has been smoothly sailing towards making significant contributions and notable accomplishments during 2022, al-Muftah said in the latest board report.
Supported by its Erhama Bin Jaber Al Jalahma Shipyard, Nakilat’s joint venture companies continue adding strategic value to its operations through dedicated services, including ship repair, offshore fabrication, as well as a range of maritime services, all of which contribute towards establishing Qatar as a shipping and maritime hub, in support of the Qatar National Vision 2030, according to him.

Qatar is among the list of ‘Top 10 LNG exporters’ in January, data provided by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) show. The other LNG exporting countries in the list are US, Australia, Russia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Algeria, Oman, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago.

Qatar is among the list of ‘Top 10 LNG exporters’ in January, data provided by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) show.
The other LNG exporting countries in the list are US, Australia, Russia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Algeria, Oman, Nigeria and
Trinidad and Tobago.
In its inaugural edition of the Monthly Gas Market Report (MGMR) GECF said that in January, global LNG exports grew by 2.8% (0.98mn tonnes) y-o-y to 35.56mn tonnes.
The higher LNG exports were driven mainly by non-GECF countries and to a lesser extent from GECF member countries and LNG reloads.
However, GECF member countries were the largest LNG exporter globally with a share of 49.7%, down from 50.9% during the same period a year earlier.
Similarly, the share of LNG reloads in global LNG exports decreased from 1.5% to 1.2% during the same period.
In contrast, the share of non-GECF countries LNG exports globally increased from 47.9% to 48.8%.
GECF cited Rystad Energy’s preliminary forecast and said global natural gas production was estimated to have decreased by 0.4% to 4,032 bcm in 2022 due to the decline in production in the CIS and Africa regions.
Several factors, including a decrease in gas demand due to high prices and geopolitical tensions, exerted downward pressure on gas production.
Conversely, natural gas output of North America, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America increased by 64 bcm, 19 bcm, 7 bcm, and 3bcm, respectively.
The 2022 figures have been slightly revised upward from the previous month’s estimates due to upward revisions in natural gas output in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and North America. Non-GECF natural gas output is estimated to increase by 3.8% to reach 2,388 bcm in 2022, mainly due to a production increase of 47bcm in the US.
In 2023, the forecasts reveal a growth in global gas production, driven by growth in North America, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Asia Pacific.
GECF said it is pleased to unveil the inaugural edition of the Monthly Gas Market Report (MGMR). This new publication offers a comprehensive analysis of the global gas market on a monthly basis.
The report provides essential insights for industry players, policymakers, and stakeholders, including a detailed analysis of gas demand and supply, international trade flows, gas storage trends, pricing trends, and the impact of the global economy on the gas market.
“The GECF is committed to delivering high-quality information and analysis, and is confident that the Monthly Gas Market Report will be a valuable resource for all those interested in the gas industry,” said Mohamed Hamel, secretary-general, GECF.

LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) – Europe is on course to end the winter of 2022/23 with a record amount of gas in storage, putting downward pressure on futures prices for deliveries this spring and summer.

But even with a record inventory carry over, the region will likely experience higher prices and renewed pressure to conserve gas in the winter of 2023/24.

Europe’s storage is designed to smooth out seasonal variations in consumption not to provide a strategic stockpile to protect against an embargo disrupting supplies.

Combined gas consumption in the European Union and United Kingdom was around 5,203 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic, according to Eurostat.

They have enough capacity to store 1,129 TWh, equivalent to about 21% of annual consumption, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

In practice, storage depletion supplies a much smaller share of actual consumption each year, typically around 10%.

SEASONAL STORAGE

Seasonal storage is designed to absorb excess production during summer, discharging during winter to meet peaking consumption.

Using inventories to shift supply from summer to winter in this way is more cost-effective than maintaining lots of extra production capacity that would only be used a few months each year.

Inventories are large enough to cope with the unpredictability of winter heating demand and ensure supply does not run out in the event winter is much colder than average.

But given the relatively small volume of gas that can be stored, the inventory system cannot provide both seasonal and strategic storage at the same time.

STOCK CLEARANCE

Storage follows a two-season cycle of summer (with inventories accumulating from roughly April to September) and winter (inventories depleting from roughly October to March).

Deviations from this are usually reversed within the subsequent season via large changes in prices forcing inventories back to the long-term average within 6-12 months.

If inventories end the summer unusually high, prices fall to boost consumption, ensure inventories deplete faster and end winter close to average.

Conversely, if inventories end winter low, prices rise to curb consumption, accelerate inventory accumulation and end summer close to normal.

Price changes ensure that inventories normalise within a single storage year rather than over multiple storage years.

RECORD CARRYOVER

Gas conservation policies, high prices and an extended period of unusually warm temperatures between mid-December and mid-January have combined to avert possible gas shortages this winter.

EU and UK storage is on course to end the winter of 2022/23 more than 54% full, well above the average of 35% over the previous 12 years (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, January 20).

But that means there will be much less unused space to absorb over-production during the summer season of 2023.

Lack of storage will ensure prices fall to stimulate consumption and discourage production to limit inventory accumulation.

But the futures market is forward-looking; traders are already anticipating, accelerating and amplifying the price decline.

Prices have tumbled to limit excess inventories and create more space for gas to be put into storage during summer 2023.

Futures prices for gas delivered in March 2023 have fallen to less than €65 per megawatt-hour from €177 at the start of October and a peak of €338 in August.

Pressure on storage space is likely to keep prices low this summer even if they then rise again next winter.

Given the limitations of the storage system, a record carryover from winter 2022/23 will lessen but cannot eliminate the need for high prices and conservation in winter 2023/24.

Higher inventories provide more energy security than lower ones, but policymakers should avoid implying inventories alone are enough to prevent shortages or price spikes next winter.

With no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war, global energy markets will continue to be unstable, making 2023 another difficult year for global energy.

On top of this, with uncertainties in global energy policy continuing, as Europe and the US pursue a faster energy transition, and elections in Cyprus, Greece and Turkey, oil companies operating in the Cyprus EEZ are unlikely to announce any major new initiatives in 2023.

Chevron’s appraisal drilling at Aphrodite is expected later in the year, but it may produce more questions than answers. The reservoir is compartmentalized, and the well will be drilled in the middle and largest section.

Even though the Minister of Energy makes frequent references to gas exports from Aphrodite starting in 2027, there are no clear plans by Chevron and its partners to support this. For such a date to be feasible, gas sales contracts should have already been signed with prospective buyers in Egypt. But 11 years after the discovery of Aphrodite, the Minister is still talking about the development plan being “in the final stages and we expect to have news soon,” an often-repeated statement without any indication by when.

The announcement of 2-3 trillion cubic feet (tcf) gas discovery at Zeus-1 in block 6 by Eni/TotalEnergies in December, is good news. Small, but it adds to the two other small discoveries in the same block, Cronos-1 with 2,5tcf and Calypso likely with 1-2tcf. It strengthens the case for the potential linking of these gas fields to the subsea production facilities at Eni’s Zohr gas field in Egypt, to be transported to the Damietta LNG plant for liquefaction and export.

Earlier in the week, the Minister of Energy suggested that the Eni-TotalEnergies consortium wishes to implement faster steps in the exploitation of block 6. But this was not borne out at the meeting of the two companies with the President on 10 January. Apart from generalities, and reconfirming commitment to Cyprus’ EEZ, there was no mention of any such plans at this stage. Instead, TotalEnergies expressed interest to participate in future in solar energy projects, but there was no indication of when, where or generation capacity.

Evidently, the companies operating in Cyprus’ EEZ are not rushing with any new commitments or investments at this stage. This was confirmed by the Minister. Asked if there will be any activity in Cyprus’ EEZ this year, she said “These are certainly issues that we discuss within the development plan of each block…we do not have anything concrete to announce, but there will definitely be some activity in the coming year.”

The prospects for the development of the discovered gas fields in Cyprus EEZ in 2023 are low.

Apart from the need for oil company commitment, this requires a change of policy by the EU regarding the future use of natural gas in Europe. Even though it is looking for new supplies in the short-term to 2030 to replace Russian gas, the longer-term future remains uncertain.

EU’s position, embodied in its REPowerEU strategy, is to reduce gas consumption in Europe by 30 per cent by 2030, and carry on reducing this further on the way to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. It has already achieved a 20 per cent reduction in gas consumption year-on-year. This discourages European utilities from entering into long-term gas purchase contracts, which are needed to encourage the development of new gas fields that require 20+ years of exports.

I believe that challenges to the reliability and performance of renewables due to the effects of climatic change on wind speeds and rainfall will eventually force the EU to change its gas policies later in the decade. Already EU countries are calling for changes to the Green Deal that recognize the need for gas longer-term.

This will open up opportunities for the development of East Med gas for export to Europe.

But Cyprus must also prepare the ground to make this possible. An obstacle to developing Cyprus gas fields is the geopolitical risk associated with the unresolved Cyprus problem and Turkey’s continuous threats. With elections in Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey ushering in new governments by the summer of 2023, the second half of 2023 will be the right time to redouble efforts to overcome these obstacles.

Turkey’s priority will be to tackle its catastrophic economic problems, something that will require the goodwill, cooperation and support of Europe and the US.

Readiness by Cyprus to enter into meaningful discussions to resolve the Cyprus problem will be supported by Europe and the US. Turkey may also consider this as key to gaining the cooperation of Europe and the US and becoming more amenable to working with them towards a solution.

A cooperative approach by all is the one most likely to produce the best possible results.

Preparing the ground also includes concluding the discussions with Israel regarding the Aphrodite-Ishai unitization dispute. But with changes in government, both in Israel and in Cyprus, this may have to wait until the second half of 2023.

With prospects for developing Cyprus’ EEZ being low in 2023, the new President must prioritize the development of renewables from the currently low levels and the development of an integrated, long-term, strategy for energy and the economy, currently lacking.

Cratering natural-gas prices thanks to warm winter weather are raising the odds that the eurozone’s inflation scourge will ease sooner than anticipated.
After a year when consumer prices consistently overshot predictions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the bloc kicks off 2023 with the prospect of that dynamic reversing and with its near-term economic outlook brightening.
There’s even a chance headline inflation will reach the European Central Bank’s 2% target in the fourth quarter, rather than in 2025 as the institution forecast just a month ago, according to Joerg Angele, a senior economist at Bantleon in Zurich.
If gas prices stay where they are, “there’d be massive downward pressure on inflation” he said. With the ECB’s December assumptions way above current market levels, its next set of projections may well be revised lower.
The ECB “is off the mark again,” Angele said. “But this time in the other direction.”
The catch is that uncertainty about the path for gas prices remains high, even as optimism builds that the worst of Europe’s energy crisis is behind it.
Mild temperatures, more diversified supplies and efforts to cut consumption have eased much of the pressure unleashed when Russia attacked its neighbour almost a year ago. Gas inventories are far higher than the last five years’ average and prices have recently traded below pre-war levels.
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said this month that the danger of “a complete economic meltdown” appears to have been averted. The rosier outlook marks an about-turn from just a few months ago, when it was feared the region would struggle to keep the lights on during the colder months.
Even so, much of the winter remains, and there are risks from any bouts of extreme weather or fresh supply disruptions. A cold snap is forecast for the region in the coming days.
There are also concerns that Europe could face an even tougher year ahead as it struggles to rebuild the gas inventories previously supplied by Russia, while China’s sudden Covid reopening could create more demand for liquefied natural gas.
“The impact of lower gas prices depends on whether they remain at these levels or whether it’s a temporary relaxation,” said Aila Mihr, an economist at Danske Bank in Copenhagen.
“There’s still a risk that the situation could deteriorate in case of a new shock, or an attack on European energy infrastructure,” she said. “If the situation remains as it is, it means that the slowdown in energy inflation could come faster than previously expected.”
The more favourable energy situation is making economists more bullish. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America last week dropped expectations that the eurozone will suffer a winter recession, saying lower gas prices will probably quicken the retreat in inflation.
Such views were bolstered by data on Friday showing that Germany’s economy probably avoided a contraction in the final three months of 2022.
Others, however, warn there’s a lot of pain still to come. While there’s a fairly direct link between wholesale gas prices and what consumers pay in countries like Italy and the Netherlands, Bantleon’s Angele says many households — renters in Germany, for instance — will still face with eye-watering heating bills this year.
Finance ministers across the region, meanwhile, may breathe a sigh of relief as the myriad support measures they agreed on last year look like being cheaper than feared. Economists at Berenberg have already lowered their forecast for the euro region’s 2023 fiscal deficit to 3.7% from 4.3%.
All of this is unlikely to make a big impression on ECB policymakers, who’ve lately emphasised their focus on underlying inflation that strips out volatile components like energy and food. That measure hit a record in December, with chief economist Philip Lane warning wage gains will keep it elevated.
“The latest inflation optimism in markets has maybe been a bit much and they focused too much on headline inflation,” Danske’s Mihr said. “Core inflation is still rising and it’s the key determinant for the ECB in the near term. I don’t think that the slowdown in energy inflation will make them more dovish in the near term.”

أعلنت شركة إيني الإيطالية، عن اكتشاف حقل غاز جديد وصفته بـ”المهم” في بئر الاستكشاف “نرجس-1” الواقعة في المياه الإقليمية بالقرب من مدينة رفح، شرقي مصر.

وذكرت الشركة في بيان، الأحد، أن البئر شهدت استخراج أحجار رملية حاملة للغاز من الميوسين والأليغوسين، ما يؤشر لوجود الغاز الطبيعي.. “جرى حفر البئر بعمق 309 أمتار تحت الماء”. ولم تقدم الشركة أية أرقام بشأن تقديرات كميات الغاز الطبيعي في البئر.

وتبلغ مساحة امتياز منطقة نرجس البحرية المصرية 1800 كيلومتر مربع، بشراكة تشغيلية بين شيفرون الأميركية بنسبة 45 بالمئة وإيني الإيطالية بنفس النسبة، وشركة ثروة للبترول (مصرية) بنسبة 10 بالمئة.

وأصبحت مصر مكتفية ذاتيا في الغاز الطبيعي، بمتوسط إنتاج سنوي يتجاوز 64 مليار متر مكعب، معظمه يذهب للاستهلاك المحلي.

ماذا عن الاكتشافات الأخرى لإيني في مصر؟
تنتج إيني حالياً حوالي 60% من الغاز في البلاد. علاوة على ذلك، تلتزم الشركة بمشاريع لزيادة الإنتاج المحلي بناءً على حملة تنقيب وتطوير، تقول الشركة إنها من شأنها أن تساهم أيضاً في زيادة صادرات الغاز إلى أوروبا، من خلال مصنع تسييل دمياط .

ويعتبر حقل نوروس لإنتاج الغاز البري والبحري في مصر من بين أهم اكتشافات إيني في عام 2015، وهو واحد من أكبر حقول الغاز المصرية. دخل حقل نوروس للغاز، الواقع في واحدة من أكثر المناطق غزارة في دلتا النيل، حيز الإنتاج في وقت قياسي في أغسطس/ آب 2015.

كذا يوجد حقل ظهر البحري العملاق في مصر، ويُعتقد أن حقل ظهر هو أكبر اكتشاف للغاز على الإطلاق في مصر والبحر الأبيض المتوسط. يقع ظهر ضمن امتياز الشروق على بعد حوالى 190 كم شمال مدينة بورسعيد. تمتلك إيني حصة 50 في المائة في الكتلة، وهي مسؤولة عن العمليات هناك.

وفي التفاصيل، بحسب موقع الشركة الإلكتروني، فإنه تبلغ مساحة الأراضي المطورة وغير المطورة 18712 كيلومتراً مربعاً (6776 كيلومتراً مربعاً صافية من إيني). تقع الأنشطة الرئيسية المنتجة لشركة إيني في منطقة الشروق (حصة إيني بنسبة 50%) في البحر الأبيض المتوسط مع حقل ظهر العملاق للغاز، وامتياز سيناء، وخاصة في حقلي بلايم مارين-لاند وأبو رديس (حصة إيني بنسبة 100%)، الصحراء الغربية في المليحية (76% لإيني)، جنوب غرب مليحة (حصة إيني 100%).

كذلك تستثمر الشركة في رأس قطارة (حصة إيني 75%) وغرب أبو غراديج (حصة إيني 45%) امتيازات و(4) بلطيم (حصة إيني 50%)، دلتا النيل (حصة إيني 75%)، شمال بورسعيد (حصة إيني 100%)، امتيازات شمال رزاق (حصة إيني 100%).

علاوة على ذلك، تشارك الشركة في امتيازات رأس البر (حصة إيني 50%) وجنوب الغارة (حصة إيني 25%).

وفي يوليو/ تموز 2021، تم توقيع اتفاقية مع الدولة المصرية لتقييم الجدوى الفنية والتجارية لمشاريع إنتاج الهيدروجين الأزرق والأخضر أيضاً، من خلال تخزين ثاني أكسيد الكربون في حقول الغاز الطبيعي المستنفد.

وفي يناير/ كانون الثاني 2022، مُنحت إيني خمسة تراخيص استكشاف، وفي عام 2021، بلغ إنتاج إيني 360 ألف برميل نفط مكافئ/يوم، وشكل ما يقرب من 21% من إجمالي إنتاج إيني السنوي من الهيدروكربونات.