Draghi is betting on Africa for Italy’s exit from Russian gas

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is chasing a raft of natural gas deals in Africa as he seeks to cut energy ties with Russia.
Draghi will travel to central and southern Africa this week in pursuit of further supplies after Italy struck agreements for Algerian and Egyptian gas.
His tour may ruffle some feathers as European partners vie to displace Russian energy following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Potential deals in the Republic of Congo and Angola could bring Italy an additional 5bn cubic metres and 1.5bn cubic metres a year, respectively, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.
Together with the extra volume it secured from Algeria, which would replace more than half the amount it gets from Russia as early as next year.
Talks are ongoing and details of any accords may change, the people said.
Italy currently gets about 40% of its gas from Russia, and Draghi — together with local energy giant Eni SpA — has sought alternative sources since President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine in February.
With Eni already present in more than a dozen countries in Africa, the continent is an attractive option. Yet the former central banker’s energy diplomacy is causing some anxiety among European Union allies.
The Algeria deal stoked concerns in Spain that its own access to the country’s gas could be affected, prompting talks between Rome and Madrid.
It’s also unclear how Italy’s plans square with a push to centralize gas-purchase negotiations at the EU level.
“It’s really important that the EU sticks together at the moment, that’s essential,” said Oliver Sartor, senior industry adviser at think tank Agora Energiewende. “There are some countries that are more exposed than others, so it’s normal that they would look to protect themselves. But there’s a higher priority here.”
Draghi’s discussions in Congo and Angola this week will focus — among other things — on boosting deliveries of liquefied natural gas, the people said.
That trip could be followed by travel to Mozambique, though plans haven’t yet been confirmed, they said.
Gas discoveries off Mozambique have attracted international operators, including Eni, to its waters.
While work in the country is risky — with attacks by an insurgency group threatening onshore developments — Eni’s Coral Sul offshore LNG plant is expected to start production in the second half of 2022.
The company’s deal with Algeria’s Sonatrach Group, signed during Draghi’s first official visit to Algiers, sees Italy buying an extra 9bn cubic metres of gas annually by 2023-2024.
On Wednesday, the firm struck an agreement with Egypt to increase flows of LNG to Italy. It has also said it’s ready to invest billions of euros across the Mediterranean Sea in Libya, where it has been present for decades.
Draghi isn’t the only EU leader to court gas-rich countries in a bid to ease dependence on Moscow.
Germany, which relies on Russia for 40% of its gas imports, is creating its own LNG infrastructure.
Others from France to Croatia plan to build or expand import terminals, while the US has also agreed to boost shipments to the bloc.
“Everyone is moving very fast,” said Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels. “It makes sense for Draghi to act now, and he is doing it very well.”

Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia ‘bright spots’ for Middle Eastern gas output until 2050: GECF

Pratap John

Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia are the “bright spots” for Middle Eastern gas output over the next three decades, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has said in a report.
In its Global Gas Outlook 2050, GECF said between 2020 and 2050, the natural gas supply is set to climb by an annual average growth rate of 2.4% in Iran, 2.2% in Qatar and 1.2% in Saudi Arabia.
It said Qatar aims to maintain its status as the top LNG producer and exporter in the world. The planned expansion of production from the North Field and other fields will increase Qatar’s total gas production by an overall of 91%, from about 175 bcm last year to 330 bcm in 2050.
National oil companies in the Middle East are focusing on developing their gas fields. As most of the countries in the Middle East are also crude oil producers, the majority of natural gas production in the region is associated gas.
With almost 17% of global gas production, the Middle East is the third-largest gas-producing region worldwide after North America and Eurasia. The region is a net exporter of gas, and supply has been growing rapidly by an annual average growth rate of 6.3%, from about 190 bcm in 2000 to around 650 bcm in 2020.
According to GECF, associated-dissolved natural gas (gas obtained from crude oil reservoirs) has always been accounted for as a share of total gas production. This gas can be found as free gas (associated) or in solution with crude oil, referred to as dissolved gas.
Like the impact that Covid-19 had on non-associated gas production, the demand for oil also declined in 2020, resulting in a lower level of associated gas production in that year.
According to the EIA, associated gas production in the US fell in 2020 by 1.5% reaching a level of around 140 bcm, following three years of growth. For the first time since 2016, the share of associated gas production in the US was reduced to almost 37.7%.
The GECF report forecasts that the demand for oil will stabilise through to 2050 and the level of global oil production will peak at slightly more than 100 mboe/d in around 2035 and will steady at around 90 mboe/d by 2050.
This lower level of crude oil production will consequently affect the level of associated gas production. Furthermore, the need for EOR measures by the injection of associated gas into oil wells will be magnified by the ageing oil reservoirs.
“So a lower level of associated gas will reach the market, and the total volume of production from this category in the future is forecast to be lower than current levels,” GECF said.
Currently, it is estimated that slightly less than 500 bcm of marketed natural gas is sourced from oil wells, and this level excludes the volume of the gas obtained from unconventional crude oil production.
The total level of associated gas production is even higher than this, as injection and recirculation do not count in marketed production, GECF noted.

Germany faces $240bn hit if Russian energy cut off

Bloomberg / Berlin

Germany was warned it could face a €220bn ($240bn) hit to output over the next two years in the event of an immediate interruption in Russian energy supplies over the war in Ukraine.
Economic institutes advising the government in Berlin said on Wednesday in a joint forecast that a full halt in Russian natural gas imports would result in a “sharp recession.”
“The decision to become independent from Russian supplies of raw materials is likely to remain valid even when the military and political situation calms down again,” the report said. “That means part of the energy supply and energy-intensive industry must realign itself.”
While the €220bn estimate is the equivalent of 6.5% of annual output, it’s nowhere near the almost €890bn in borrowing Germany carried out in 2020 and 2021 to shield the economy from the fallout of the pandemic.
Amid mounting casualties and reports of brutal atrocities, Germany has been under increasing pressure to justify its resistance to an embargo on Russian gas – widely seen as the ultimate leverage against President Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine snubbed a request by Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s president, to visit Kyiv this week following criticism for his past support for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany and for his role when foreign minister in encouraging reconciliation and dialogue with the Kremlin.
Finance Minister Christian Lindner highlighted the huge challenges facing Germany as it tries to wean itself off Russian energy as quickly as possible while also pursuing a goal of climate neutrality by 2045.
“Our world will not be the same again as it once was,” Lindner, who’s chairman of the pro-business Free Democrats, wrote in a guest article for the Handelsblatt newspaper published on Wednesday.
“We need new business models, new ideas, new supply chains and new trade relationships,” he said. “We have to reduce one-sided dependencies, be it when it comes to importing energy from Russia or exporting to China.”
Berlin-based DIW, one of the institutes involved in the estimate, said on Friday that Germany could be in position to survive without Russian gas, which currently accounts for two-fifths of its gas deliveries. The group said a combination of high storage, bolstering other energy supplies and implementing programmes to lower demand could offset Russia as soon as this winter.
That’s not a view that’s generally shared by the business community, with industry leaders including Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing warning of dire economic consequences if Russian supplies are severed.
Even absent a cutoff, Wednesday’s report pared the outlook for Germany’s economy, predicting growth this year of 2.7% and 3.1% in 2023. Those numbers compare with previous projections for expansion of 4.8% and 1.9%. Inflation will average 6.1% in 2022 – the most in 40 years.
“The shock waves from the war in Ukraine are weighing on economic activity on both the supply side and the demand side,” said Stefan Kooths, vice president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. “Increasing prices of critical energy commodities following the Russian invasion further fuel the upward pressure on prices.”
Germany’s industry-heavy economy faces considerable hurdles after the war sent energy prices higher while disrupting supply chains that had already been suffering from pandemic-related snarls. Inflation reached 7.6% in the first full month of the war – the highest level since records began after reunification in the early 1990s.
Companies are seen as particularly vulnerable because of Germany’s reliance on Russian gas. The ruling coalition last week agreed on an aid package for suffering businesses that includes loans, loan guarantees and capital injections, and is meant to help energy firms in particular.

US and EU reach LNG supply deal to cut dependence on Russia

Bloomberg / Brussels

The US and the European Union will push to boost supplies of liquefied natural gas to European countries by the end of 2022 in a bid to displace Russian gas, a political framework that now leaves companies to sort out the details.
Under the agreement, Europe will get at least 15bn cubic metres of additional LNG supplies by the end of the year, though it’s not clear where it will come from. Member states will also work to ensure demand for 50bn cubic metres of American fuel until at least 2030. The aim is to work with international partners to help the continent wean itself off Russian gas, which accounts for about 40% of Europe’s needs.
“We’re coming together to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy,” US President Joe Biden said at a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who added that 15bn cubic metres this year “is a big step in that direction.”
Europe is trying to diversify its energy sources in a bid to starve Russia of the revenues it needs to fund the war in Ukraine. But that’s a mammoth task. Russia ships about 150bn cubic metres of gas to Europe via pipelines every year, and another 14bn to 18bn cubic metres of LNG. That means any disruptions to flows of pipeline gas from Russia would hard to cope with.
“It’s a start, but relatively small compared to the overall supplies from Russia,” said Jonathan Stern, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “All contributions will be welcome but the task is huge.”
The issue is critical as Russia is the EU’s biggest gas supplier. The EU also relies on the country for the biggest share of its coal and oil imports, and has struggled to shift its energy policy away from Moscow. The details of how the plan works is now in the hands of energy companies, with American LNG shippers and German buyers set to meet next week in Berlin to hash out possible deals.
The US has already been providing more LNG to Europe, with shipments doubling to record 4.4bn cubic metres in January and a similar level in February. Supplying another 15bn cubic metres could be feasible as long as Europe continue to pay a premium to cargoes compared to Asian buyers. A significant boost to global LNG supplies will only come from 2025, when new projects are scheduled to come online.
It’s also unclear whether the supplies would be coming from additional production or from cargoes being redirected from other regions. A senior US administration official who briefed reporters on the plan Friday couldn’t say how much of the additional 15bn cubic metres would be provided by US suppliers versus suppliers in Asia or elsewhere.
Currently, European buyers are competing with Asian countries for the world’s limited supply of LNG cargoes.
Germany also unveiled its own plan to dramatically reduce Russian fossil fuel imports and make the country almost completely independent of Russian gas by the middle of 2024. Critics say the plan is impossible to achieve as Germany is Europe’s biggest buyer of Russian gas.
The US-EU aspirational pact is light on detail. The senior US administration official said permitted US projects can meet the 50bn cubic metres of demand, and added that Europe’s pledge to try to meet that demand might nudge planned US facilities toward a final investment decision.
The US worked with partners in Asia this winter to secure supply but is now working to build up stocks for next winter. The effort will require a lot of diplomacy, another official told reporters.
The European Union wants to replace this year nearly two-thirds of its total gas imports from Russia after the war waged by President Vladimir Putin forced an unprecedented re-think of the bloc’s energy strategy. The new energy strategy, outlined by the European commission earlier this month, aims to replace 101.5bn cubic metres of Russian gas in 2022 by tapping alternative supply sources, building up renewables and boosting energy security. It also seeks to ensure 50bn cubic metres in LNG from new suppliers.
Europe’s ability to import more LNG is constrained by the current regassification capacity, number of terminals and interconnectors, according to an EU official, who asked not to be identified commenting on private talks.
Still, the continent is in a much better place than earlier this year, with mild weather and more LNG imports helping bring inventories level back within the 5-year range, after falling to the lowest in more than a decade. European gas prices have fallen more than 60% since reaching a record earlier this month.

Qatar will stand in solidarity with Europe, won’t divert gas contracts to other customers: Minister of State for Energy Affairs

Doha: Minister of State for Energy Affairs HE Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi stressed that Qatar will stand “in solidarity with Europe” and will not divert gas contracts to other customers, even if it means losing on possible financial gains.

The Minister told CNN that even though Qatar’s LNG contracts with Europe and the UK were divertible ones, Qatar’s commitment to Europe means “we’re not going to divert contracts and will keep them in Europe, even if there is financial gain for us to divert away, we would not do that,” before adding “that’s in solidarity with what’s going on in Europe.”

On the possibility for Europe to replace Russian gas, Al Kaabi said that replacing Russian gas is “not practically possible.” He highlighted that Russia supplies 30 to 40 percent of Europe’s gas needs, something the continent cannot replace.

The Minister of State rejected imposing sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, adding that Qatar was not choosing sides in the Ukrainian crisis. He added that it was to keep the energy sector out of politics, due to the negative ramifications doing so would have on development. He added that doing so could affect prices the way it did and cause a lot of volatility.

He noted that the Ukrainian crisis had a negative impact on energy transition, highlighting that the use of coal has reached its highest levels ever, as all parties involved are prioritizing their energy security ahead of any long-term gains they are trying to reach. HE the Minister maintained however that the energy sector could do that in a responsible manner.

Commenting on the role the US could play in the future of energy production, he said that the US is certainly one of the biggest suppliers, given the abundance of LNG the country has.

On the prospects of Europe buying fuel jointly from large suppliers, the Minister said that he is yet to see a decision regarding that, noting that this never happened in the past. His Excellency added that many parties in Europe were speaking with Qatar and other large LNG producers because they want to diversify their supply.

On whether Qatar could turn its back on its Asian partners, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs said that QatarEnergy was the biggest company in terms of signing long-term contracts with partners in Asia, with many of those agreements signed over the past three years.

He also told CNN that there is a desire to diversify the buyers of Qatari gas, revealing that the plan is to have half of the customers of the Qatari gas be located to the East of the Suez Canal, with the other half to its West. Currently, 80-85% of Qatar gas buyers are in Asia, with 15-20% of customers located to the West of the Suez Canal.

الحرب بين روسيا وأوكرانيا وسعي أوروبا الخاطئ إلى أمنها في مجال الطاقة

بقلم: رودي بارودي

لقد كشف تردد أوروبا في استهداف قطاع الطاقة الروسية لمعاقبة موسكو على غزوها لأوكرانيا مدى هشاشة إمدادات الطاقة للقارة، حيث تتطلب أفضل الحلول، فهماً أعمق لكيفية وصول الوضع الأوروبي إلى ما هو عليه اليوم.

التفسير البسيط هو أن ألمانيا والعديد من الدول الأوروبية الأخرى أصبحت تعتمد بشكل مفرط على واردات الغاز الطبيعي الروسي. لكن هذا ليس صحيحاً تماماً، لأن العديد من العوامل الأخرى تزيد من ضعف أوروبا، وبينما يلعب سوء التوقيت دوراً في بعضها، فإن البعض الآخر ينبع من إخفاقات كبيرة على مستوى صناعة القرار الاستراتيجي.

قررت حكومات اوروبية عدة إغلاق محطات الطاقة النووية والفحم في السنوات الأخيرة، الأمر الذي لم يؤد سوى إلى زيادة حاجة أوروبا للطاقة – وبالتالي الاعتماد على – الغاز الروسي. هذا لا يعني أنه لم تكن هناك أسباب مقنعة لهذه القرارات، وأن تزامن فترة ما بعد الاعتماد على الطاقة النووية مع الأزمة الروسية الأوكرانية يعد سوء طالع الى حد ما، ومع ذلك لا يمكن إنكار حقيقة أن التخلي عن هذا الكم الهائل من مولدات الطاقة النووية قد ترك لأوروبا عددًا قليلاً من البدائل العملية والقابلة للتطبيق. لكن المشكلة الحقيقية لم تكن بالإغلاق التدريجي لوحدات التوليد النووية؛ بل الفشل المتمثل في عدم الاستعداد بشكل مناسب للعواقب من خلال تجهيز مصادر طاقة بديلة جديدة كافية، وخاصة مصادر الطاقة المتجددة.

في ألمانيا أيضاً، وإلى جانب سياسة التخلي عن الطاقة النووية نسبياً، تم تأجيل انشاء محطتين جديدتين لاستقبال شحنات الغاز الطبيعي المسال المنقولة بحراً لأكثر من عقد. وهذا يعني أنه، حتى لو تمكنت أوروبا من تأمين ما يكفي من الغاز الطبيعي المسال لاستبدال الغاز الذي يُضخ إليها من روسيا عبر الأنابيب، فإنها تفتقر إلى القدرة الكافية على إعادة تحويل الغاز المسال إلى غاز جاهز للاستهلاك يمكن الاستفادة منه بالكامل.

وفي منحىً مماثل، فإن خط أنابيب نابوكو المقترح – الذي كان سينقل الغاز الأذربيجاني والمصري والعراقي و / أو التركماني من تركيا إلى النمسا – تعرض أيضًا لعراقيل متكررة وإلغاء نهائي في عام 2013، مما زاد من أهمية اعتماد اوروبا على الغاز الروسي وخطوط الأنابيب الروسية.

وبالرغم من ضياع هذه الفرص وغيرها على أوروبا والتي كانت ستؤمن لها المرونة في الاستفادة من مصادر طاقة متعددة من خلال تنويع مصادرها ووسائلها وطرق إمدادها، فإنه لا يزال أمام أوروبا الوقت لتحسين وضعها بشكل كبير، لا سيما على المدى المتوسط والطويل. أحد الخيارات الواعدة هو ربط فرنسا واسبانيا بالجزائر والمغرب بوسائط نقل الغاز بأنابيب تحت البحر مع امكانية كبيرة لإعادة تكرير الغاز المسال الى غاز قابل للاستهلاك، حيث يمكن بعد ذلك توزيع الإمداد بالغاز إلى دول اوروبية أخرى. إلا أن مسائل سياسية وعراقيل مختلفة قد أدت إلى إبطاء هذا الاقتراح أيضًا، لذلك لا يسعنا إلا أن نأمل أن تساعد الأزمة الاوكرانية في تسليط الضوء مجدداً في مدريد وباريس على هذا المقترح.

هناك خطوات أخرى يمكن أن تتخذها أوروبا أيضًا، بعضها مباشر وتتطلب تسهيل التعاون عبر الحدود وتجاوز تطبيق بنود الاتفاقيات التي يمكن أن تستغرق وقتًا طويلاً لتتحقق. يتمثل أحدها في تعزيز قدرة القارة على تحمل حالات انقطاع واردات الغاز من خلال زيادة قدرتها التخزينية، سواء للغاز التقليدي في كهوف الملح تحت الأرض أو للغاز المسال في مستودعات الغاز الطبيعي الجديدة أو الموسعة.

وهناك خطوة ثانية تتمثل في تأجيل الألمان والبلجيكيين وغيرهم إغلاق المحطات النووية المقرر إيقاف تشغيلها. والثالثة هو أن يقوم الهولنديون بتوسيع موانئهم الحالية لاستقبال الغاز الطبيعي المسال، أما الخطوة الرابعة فقد بدأت في الأيام القليلة الماضية حيث استهل الألمان العمل في مرافق الاستيراد الخاصة بهم. وقد تكون الخطوة الخامسة هي العمل فورًا على ربط حقل غاز شرق البحر الأبيض المتوسط عبر خط أنابيب إلى تركيا ومن بعدها إلى أوروبا.

يمكن أيضًا تحسين الوضع من خارج القارة. فقد ضاعفت الولايات المتحدة، على سبيل المثال، صادراتها من الغاز الطبيعي المسال إلى أوروبا، وينبغي أن تكون قطر – التي أوفت بكل التزام من التزامات التسليم على الرغم من الحصار غير القانوني لمدة عامين ونصف العام الذي فرضه عليها بعض جيرانها – قادرة على زيادة شحناتها أيضًا، الأمر الذي من شأنه أن يعيد الثقة بأسواق التوريد. أما إسبانيا فإلى جانب تلقيها الغاز عبر الأنابيب فهي ايضاً تتزود بالكهرباء المولدة من مزارع الطاقة الشمسية في شمال إفريقيا، بالإضافة الى نطاق شبكات تعاون المشتركة الهائل على امتداد المنطقة الأورو متوسطية.

أخيرًا وبالتأكيد ليس آخرًا، يمكن لأوروبا أن تخدم مصالحها على أفضل وجه – بكل ما للكلمة من معنى – من خلال الموافقة على دعمها المالي لمشاريع النفط والغاز المستقبلية للسنوات القليلة المقبلة، وأن تصبح أكثر جدية بشأن مصادر الطاقة المتجددة. تمتلك دول الأورو متوسط وحدها إمكانات كافية من طاقة الرياح البحرية لتحل محل الصناعة النووية العالمية بأكملها، بالإضافة الى تقنيات أخرى، بما في ذلك الطاقة الشمسية والأمواج والمد والجزر والطاقة الحرارية الأرضية تحت سطح البحر.

كل هذا يجب أن يوفر الاستقلالية عن الغاز الروسي وأن يعبد الطريق نحو السلام وليس الحرب.

Ο πόλεμος και η προβληματική αναζήτηση της Ευρώπης για ενεργειακή ασφάλεια

OPINIONS – 25.03.22 17:42

Roudi Baroudi

Τι πρέπει να γίνει για να υπάρχει απεξάρτηση από το ρωσικό αέριο και να κινούνται τα αγαθά για την ειρήνη, όχι για τον πόλεμο

Οι επιφυλάξεις της Ευρώπης να βάλει στο στόχαστρο τη ρωσική ενεργειακή βιομηχανία για να τιμωρήσει τη Μόσχα για την εισβολή της στην Ουκρανία έχει αποκαλύψει ότι οι ενεργειακές προμήθειες της ηπείρου δεν είναι επαρκείς, με τις καλύτερες λύσεις να απαιτούν βαθύτερη κατανόηση του πώς η ευρωπαϊκή κατάσταση έφτασε στο σημείο που είναι σήμερα.

Η απλή εξήγηση είναι ότι η Γερμανία και πολλές άλλες ευρωπαϊκές χώρες έχουν γίνει υπερβολικά εξαρτημένες από τις εισαγωγές ρωσικού φυσικού αερίου. Αλλά αυτό είναι μόνο εν μέρει αλήθεια, καθώς πολλοί άλλοι παράγοντες τονίζουν την αδυναμία της Ευρώπης, άλλοι το αποδίδουν σε ατυχή συγκυρία, άλλοι το ερμηνεύουν ως αποτυχία στο επίπεδο λήψης στρατηγικών αποφάσεων.

Πρώτον, πολλές κυβερνήσεις αποφάσισαν να κλείσουν τους πυρηνικούς σταθμούς και τους σταθμούς ηλεκτροπαραγωγής με άνθρακα τα τελευταία χρόνια, γεγονός που απλώς αύξησε την ανάγκη της Ευρώπης και συνεπώς την εξάρτησή της από το ρωσικό αέριο. Αυτό δεν σημαίνει ότι δεν υπήρχαν επιτακτικοί λόγοι για αυτές τις αποφάσεις, και η σύμπτωση αυτής της μεταπυρηνικής περιόδου με την κρίση Ρωσίας-Ουκρανίας είναι τουλάχιστον εν μέρει κακή τύχη.

Ωστόσο δεν μπορεί να αμφισβητηθεί το γεγονός ότι η αδράνεια ή η ανικανότητα σε μεγάλες παραγωγές έχει αφήσει την Ευρώπη με λίγες πρακτικές και βιώσιμες εναλλακτικές λύσεις.

Το πραγματικό πρόβλημα, ωστόσο, δεν ήταν οι πυρηνικές διακοπές λειτουργίας των ίδιων των τοπικών μονάδων παραγωγής, αλλά μάλλον μια αποτυχία επαρκούς προετοιμασίας για τις συνέπειες προσθέτοντας άλλες εναλλακτικές όπως τις ανανεώσιμες πηγές ενέργειας.

Επίσης στη Γερμανία, και εν μέρει παράλληλα με τις διαδικασίες αποπυρηνικοποίησης, δύο νέοι τερματικοί σταθμοί για την παραλαβή υγροποιημένου φυσικού αερίου (LNG) έχουν καθυστερήσει για περισσότερο από μια δεκαετία.

Αυτό σημαίνει ότι ακόμη κι αν η Ευρώπη μπορούσε να εξασφαλίσει αρκετό LNG για να αντικαταστήσει το φυσικό αέριο που λαμβάνει από τη Ρωσία, δεν έχει επαρκή ικανότητα επαναεριοποίησης για να το χρησιμοποιήσει πλήρως.

Ομοίως, ο προτεινόμενος αγωγός Nabucco -ο οποίος θα μετέφερε αέριο από το Αζερμπαϊτζάν, την Αίγυπτο, το Ιράκ ή και το Τουρκμενιστάν από την Τουρκία στην Αυστρία- σημείωσε επίσης επανειλημμένες καθυστερήσεις και τελικά ακυρώθηκε το 2013, επιβάλλοντας περαιτέρω τη σημασία του ρωσικού φυσικού αερίου και των ρωσικών αγωγών.

Παρά το γεγονός ότι η Ευρώπη έχασε αυτές και άλλες ευκαιρίες να γίνει πιο ευέλικτη και πιο ανθεκτική διαφοροποιώντας τις πηγές, τα μέσα και τις οδούς εφοδιασμού της, έχει ακόμη χρόνο να βελτιώσει ουσιαστικά τη θέση της, ιδίως μεσοπρόθεσμα και μακροπρόθεσμα.

Μια πολλά υποσχόμενη επιλογή είναι μια διασύνδεση φυσικού αερίου που θα επεκτείνει ριζικά τη χωρητικότητα του αγωγού μεταξύ της Ισπανίας, με υποθαλάσσιους αγωγούς προς την Αλγερία και το Μαρόκο και μια σημαντική αχρησιμοποίητη ικανότητα επαναεριοποίησης, και της Γαλλίας, από όπου οι εν λόγω προμήθειες θα μπορούσαν στη συνέχεια να διανεμηθούν σε άλλα σημεία της Ευρώπης.

Πολιτικές και άλλες ανησυχίες έχουν επιβραδύνει και αυτή την πρόταση, επομένως μπορούμε μόνο να ελπίζουμε ότι το επεισόδιο της Ουκρανίας θα βοηθήσει να ανανεωθεί η εστίαση στη Μαδρίτη και το Παρίσι.

Υπάρχουν και άλλα βήματα που θα μπορούσε να κάνει η Ευρώπη, μερικά από αυτά αρκετά απλά και απαιτούν λιγότερα από τη διακρατική συμφωνία και συνεργασία που μπορεί να πάρουν τόσο πολύ χρόνο για να επιτευχθούν και να ενεργοποιηθούν.

Το ένα είναι να ενισχύσουμε την ικανότητα της ηπείρου να αντέχει τις διακοπές παράδοσης αυξάνοντας την ικανότητα αποθήκευσης, είτε για συμβατικό αέριο σε υπόγεια σπήλαια αλατιού είτε για την υγροποιημένη έκδοση σε νέες ή διευρυμένες αποθήκες LNG. Ένα άλλο είναι να καθυστερήσουν οι Γερμανοί, οι Βέλγοι και άλλοι το κλείσιμο των πυρηνικών σταθμών που επί του παρόντος προγραμματίζονται για παροπλισμό.

Ένα τρίτο είναι να επεκτείνουν οι Ολλανδοί τα υπάρχοντα λιμάνια λήψης LNG και ένα τέταρτο ξεκίνησε τις τελευταίες ημέρες, καθώς οι Γερμανοί άρχισαν να εργάζονται για τις δικές τους εγκαταστάσεις παραλαβής. Ένα πέμπτο είναι να εργαστεί άμεσα στο κοίτασμα φυσικού αερίου East Med Leviathan για σύνδεση μέσω αγωγού με την Τουρκία και μετά με την Ευρώπη.

Η κατάσταση μπορεί επίσης να βελτιωθεί από χώρες εκτός Ευρώπης. Οι Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες, για παράδειγμα, έχουν διπλασιάσει τις εξαγωγές LNG στην Ευρώπη, και το Κατάρ -το οποίο τήρησε κάθε μία από τις δεσμεύσεις του για παράδοση παρά τον παράνομο αποκλεισμό δυόμισι ετών που του επέβαλαν ορισμένοι από τους γείτονές του- θα πρέπει να είναι σε θέση να αυξήσει και τις αποστολές του, κάτι που θα αποκαθιστούσε την εμπιστοσύνη στις αγορές εφοδιασμού.

Εκτός από το φυσικό αέριο που διοχετεύεται με αγωγούς, η Ισπανία λαμβάνει επίσης ηλεκτρική ενέργεια που παράγεται από ηλιακά πάρκα στη Βόρεια Αφρική και τα περιθώρια για παρόμοια κοινά δίκτυα στην ευρωμεσογειακή περιοχή είναι τεράστια.

Τελευταίο, αλλά σίγουρα εξίσου σημαντικό, η Ευρώπη μπορεί να εξυπηρετήσει καλύτερα τα δικά της συμφέροντα -με όλη τη σημασία της λέξης- εγκρίνοντας τη χρηματοδοτική της υποστήριξη σε μελλοντικά έργα πετρελαίου και φυσικού αερίου για τα επόμενα χρόνια και λαμβάνοντας ακόμη πιο σοβαρά τις ανανεώσιμες πηγές ενέργειας.

Οι ευρωμεσογειακές χώρες από μόνες τους έχουν αρκετό υπεράκτιο δυναμικό αιολικής ενέργειας για να αντικαταστήσουν ολόκληρη την παγκόσμια πυρηνική βιομηχανία, και άλλες τεχνολογίες καλούν επίσης, όπως ηλιακή, κυματική, παλιρροιακή και υποθαλάσσια γεωθερμία.

Όλα αυτά για να υπάρχει απεξάρτηση από το ρωσικό αέριο και να κινούνται τα αγαθά για την ειρήνη, όχι για τον πόλεμο.

Total upstream, midstream investments in natural gas to reach $8.7tn by 2050: GECF

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has projected that the total upstream and midstream investments in natural gas will reach a hefty $8.7tn by 2050.

A lack of investment will lead to higher gas prices, which, coupled with higher carbon prices, may result in inflationary pressures so high that they may trigger people’s resistance to energy transition policies in developed countries, GECF noted in the ‘GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050’.
The ripple effect of these undercurrents will be even more dramatic in developing countries, it said and noted investment in natural gas is critical for the stability of global energy systems.
GECF yesterday unveiled its annual ‘GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050’, which is a comprehensive report on the status of natural gas up to 2050.
In the sixth edition, the outlook finds that natural gas can become the fuel of choice in satisfying the growing world energy needs, addressing climate change and improving air quality. It predicts the share of natural gas in the energy mix will increase from 23% today to 27% by 2050.
In his overview of new-edition outlook, Mohamed Hamel, secretary-general, GECF, highlighted the continued prominence of natural gas in various energy outlooks and pathways.
Hamel said, “The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 underscores that investment in natural gas is critical for the stability of global energy systems. It projects that by 2050, total upstream and midstream investments will reach a hefty $8.7tn.”
In his foreword, Hamel said, “Recent energy markets developments have underlined the critical role of natural gas in ensuring a continuous and affordable supply to end-consumers, in particular when the wind is not blowing and the sun not shining. They have also epitomised the globalisation and increased financialisation of natural gas markets.
“Additionally, they have emphasised the positive role that natural gas plays in many important sectors and for the daily life of people. This even includes food security, as natural gas is a key input in the production of fertilisers.
“Environmental policies are a key driver of the projections contained in the outlook. In this context, whilst upholding that natural gas is the cleanest of hydrocarbon fuels, the outlook explores the state of technologies that will make it even cleaner.
“Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) is a promising pathway, as it involves proven technologies and attracts increased interest. The number of new CCUS projects launched in 2021 has sharply increased. Methane emissions are expected to be reduced, especially considering that in most cases, this is a commercially-sound undertaking.
“Blue hydrogen derived from natural gas is the least costly option to decarbonise high-temperature process industries, such as steel and cement industries. Direct air capture, though still very expensive, is also attracting more attention and research funds.”
The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 is the flagship publication of the association of 19 countries, who together represent 71% of the world’s proven gas reserves, 43% of its marketed production, 52% of pipeline, and 58% of LNG exports in the world.
The outlook is based on a proprietary GECF Global Gas Model.

UAE Minister praises brave decision by Qatar to pump new investments to boost natural gas production

Doha: United Arab Emirates’ Minister of Energy and Infrastructure HE Suhail bin Mohamed Al Mazrouei praised Qatar’s decision to pump new investments to enhance its production capacity of liquefied natural gas.
In a speech at the opening session of the 6th Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Summit in Doha today, he congratulated Qatar on its brave decision to make new investments to enhance its production capacity of liquefied natural gas, which will enhance its role and the role of the region and the forum countries in supplying the world with resources needed by the global economy.
He pointed out that this decision comes in a circumstance characterized by the lack of investments in previous years in developing new sources of natural gas, especially liquefied gas, due to the low prices witnessed in the world.
The new global trend towards limiting climate change and carbon neutrality should be an encouraging factor for natural gas to occupy a key place in the transition towards energies that are less polluting to the environment, the minister explained, stressing that natural gas is one of the best sources of fossil energy the world will heavily rely on in the coming years during the transition period.
He added that the regional countries represent the majority of natural gas reserves and they bear the responsibility of producing and supplying the world with this wealth, which will be in great demand.
The Minister said that the UAE is working to integrate the role of natural gas with renewable energy and peaceful nuclear energy to achieve its Energy Strategy 2050, in which green energies will represent 50 percent of the energy mix.
He clarified that the UAE’s hosting of the COP 28 on Climate Change in 2023 will be an incentive and an opportunity to cooperate with the GECF to enhance the role of natural gas in the transition period and to work in the interest of member states.
In 2019, Qatar announced its intention to raise its production capacity of liquefied natural gas from 77 million tons per year currently to 126 million tons per year by 2027 through production expansion projects from the North Field, which include huge investments in environmentally friendly technologies.

Japan to divert LNG to Europe amid Russia-Ukraine tension

TOKYO/LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) – Japan will divert some liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Europe after requests from the United States and the European Union, the industry minister said on Wednesday, a step that aligns the country with the West as tensions flare with Russia.

Concern has mounted over the possible disruption of supplies from Russia, Europe’s biggest gas provider, following the buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine and heightened tensions between Moscow and the West.

The extra shipments are expected to arrive next month, minister Koichi Hagiuda told reporters.

“We have decided to respond to requests from the United States and EU for sending LNG to Europe, where gas supply is tight,” Hagiuda said after separately meeting with the U.S. and EU ambassadors to Japan earlier in the day.

He said surplus supplies would be diverted once it was clear Japan’s local demand could be met and electricity generation would remain stable.

Some already-scheduled LNG cargoes sent by Japanese companies will arrive in Europe in February, with more cargoes, including those to be diverted to Europe at the Japanese government’s request, arriving there in March, an industry ministry official said.

The official declined to disclose the number of cargoes heading to Europe, but said the amount to be delivered in March will be higher than in February.

According to data intelligence firm ICIS’ LNG Edge, three LNG vessels that belong to Japan’s top power generator JERA will arrive in the northern French port of Dunkirk: Golar Bear and Nohshu Maru are expected on Feb. 11 and 12 respectively, while Enshu Maru is due later on Wednesday, Robert Songer, LNG analyst at ICIS, said.

The vessels came from ports in the United States, rather than directly from Japan, which has minimal reload capabilities, said Olumide Ajayi, senior LNG analyst at Refinitiv.

JERA has a joint venture with France’s EDF that trades LNG and has flexibility on where it delivers cargoes.

“This reflects an established trend as a result of the joint venture between Japanese JERA and France’s EDF, which was signed in order to help optimise the two companies’ fleets,” Songer said.

“Given the JV, you might argue these European deliveries are somewhat baked in. Far more notable would be if LNG contracted to Japan from, say, Ichthys in Australia, were to come to Europe.”

The government has asked Japanese companies with flexible LNG supplies that are not under long-term contract with a specific destination to divert as much as they can to Europe. Destination clauses mandate where a cargo can be delivered and limit buyers from reselling excess gas.

NOT MUCH TO SPARE

The rare move by Japan also underlines its intention to show the country is aligned with the West.

“In the context of the international developments over Ukraine, we need to work with the G7 countries, especially with comrade countries who share our values,” Hagiuda said.

The United States and EU were among the countries that quickly helped Japan with LNG supply after the deadly 2011 earthquake and tsunami caused meltdowns at the Fukushima nuclear plant, forcing the nation to ramp up imports of LNG as a substitute for nuclear power, he said.

Still, Japan’s contribution is likely to be limited, given strong domestic demand.

Japan’s biggest oil and gas explorer Inpex Corp (1605.T) will try to respond to the government request but it will not be easy as most of its LNG production is linked with long-term contracts, its CEO Takayuki Ueda said.

“We are also receiving requests for extra supply from Japanese customers due to strong demand for the winter, which means our surplus supply is limited,” Ueda said. read more

Kazunori Kasai, CEO of the trading arm of JERA, one of the world’s biggest LNG importers, also said last week that Japanese utilities would have little spare supply.