AS AMERICA “PIVOTS TO ASIA”, SAUDI ARABIA IS ALREADY THERE – BY ROUDI BAROUDI

The biggest news in the energy industry last week was that a state-owned Chinese company had completed a massive offshore oil and gas platform for Saudi Aramco. Breathless media reports shared impressive details about the facility’s record-setting size, weight, and output capacity, with some describing it as a massive bet on continuing strong demand for fossil fuels despite the meteoric rise of renewables.

The real significance of this news, though, is not to be found at the Qingdao shipyard where it was made, at the headquarters of the China Offshore Oil Engineering Company that built it, or at the Marjan field off Saudi Arabia’s east coast where it will be installed and operated.

In fact, in order to truly appreciate the implications involved, one needs to travel back in time a little more than 50 years. For on 8 June 1974, the United States and Saudi Arabia reached a historic agreement that has bound the two countries ever since.

Signed by then-US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and then-Minister of Interior Prince Fahd bin Abdulaziz, the pact established two joint commissions tasked, respectively, with increasing bilateral economic cooperation and with determining the kingdom’s military needs. It also created several joint working groups responsible for specific elements to support growth and development, including efforts to: a) expand and diversify Saudi Arabia’s industrial base, beginning with the manufacture of fertilizers and other aspects of the petrochemical sector; b) increase the number of qualified scientists and technicians available to make the most of technology transfers; c) explore partnerships in areas like solar energy and desalination; and d) find ways to cooperate in agriculture, especially in the desert.

Henry Kissinger with Prince Fahd of Saudi Arabia, 1974

Contrary to widespread misperceptions, the agreement did not say anything about Saudi crude being priced and/or transacted exclusively in US dollars. In a side-deal that remained secret until 2016, however, the United States pledged full military support in virtually all circumstances and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia committed to investing a massive share of its oil revenues in US Treasury bills. While there was no public quid pro quo, therefore, this was to some extent a distinction without a difference: the world’s biggest oil exporter ended up spending hundreds of billions of dollars on American debt and American-made weapons, making it only sensible that the vast majority of its crude sales would be in greenbacks. By extension, the sheer weight of Saudi oil in world markets – and especially within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries – virtually guaranteed that the dollar would become the de facto default currency of those markets, Petrodollars.

These arrangements suited both sides at the time, which featured a very particular set of circumstances. The previous year, as Egypt and Syria attempted to regain territories occupied by Israeli forces since the 1967 war, US President Richard Nixon authorized an unprecedented airlift of weaponry – everything from tanks, artillery, and ammunition to helicopters, radars, and air-to-air missiles – to Israel. Arab oil producers responded by playing their strongest card, announcing an oil embargo against states that supported the Israeli war effort. That led directly to supply shortages, soaring prices, and long lines at filling stations across the United States and many other countries, too, and indirectly to several years of higher inflation. Although the embargo had been lifted in March 1974, Washington was keen to prevent similar shocks in the future.

The American economy was particularly vulnerable to longer-term repercussions because of several factors, including a general slowdown caused by its long, expensive, and ultimately unsuccessful war in Vietnam. The real problem, though, stemmed from another issue: in 1971, as the dollar continued to lose ground against major European currencies, Nixon had taken the United States off the gold standard, gutting the Bretton Woods arrangements put in place after World War II and throwing foreign exchange markets into disarray. With the Cold War as backdrop, America appeared to be losing ground in its strategic competition with the Soviet Union.

The so-called “side-deal”, then, was actually far more important than the public agreement because it would restore the dollar’s primacy in international markets, making it once again the world’s favorite reserve currency, while simultaneously reducing the likelihood of future Arab oil embargos. The new system worked very well for a very long time: the US economy regained its stability, and Saudi Arabia embarked on a long program of socioeconomic development that continues to this day. Even as the Americans have sought further protection by reducing their reliance on Saudi and other OPEC crude, their bilateral partnership and the dollar’s general prevalence in the oil business have likewise persisted despite all manner of diplomatic spats, crises, and other obstacles.

Back in the present-day, the Soviet Union is no more, and although the United States has an even more formidable strategic rival in China, this competition carries neither the day-to-day intensity nor the seeming inevitability of nuclear Armageddon that the Cold War engendered. In addition, the United States is now producing more crude oil than any country ever has, further insulating its economy against exogenous shocks, while China’s rapid expansion has made it the world’s most prolific energy importer. In fact, Washington is years into a “pivot to Asia” that will see it focus less attention on the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is now led by Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), a young and highly ambitious ruler who has shown himself more than willing to act independently of American desires or even demands. Accordingly, it should not surprise anyone that the behemoth facility now being transported to Marjan is just the most visible tip of the Sino-Saudi iceberg. Theirs is a burgeoning relationship driven by complementary needs, with both parties investing in one another’s economies and cooperating on large-scale energy and industrial projects.

Given all of the foregoing, it is much too early to declare the end of an era. Even if rumors that the Saudis will soon start selling oil futures contracts in yuan or other currencies turn out to be true and the results include an erosion of the dollar’s value, the US-Saudi economic relationship remains very much in place, as do defense ties ranging from procurement and maintenance to joint exercises and training. This is not to mention the approximately 60,000 Saudi students who study at American universities every year, or the countless other business and/or personal ties nurtured over decades.

Then, US President, Jimmy Carter receiving the Crown Prince Fahd of Saudi Arabia at the White House in Washington, 1977. Seeing the continuation of the Petrodollar Agreement.

All the same, a new era has definitely begun: just as the Americans have opened up other avenues to secure their energy needs, the Saudis are now moving decisively to diversify their foreign partnerships and have been doing so for many years. Inevitably, the global oil and gas economy’s center of gravity will shift eastward, but how could it be otherwise when China and several other Asian economies have become such powerhouses? The diversification path will almost certainly include occasional stretches where Riyadh will have to make difficult decisions, but this, too, reflects the confidence that MBS has in his country’s ability to determine its own destiny.

 

Roudi Baroudi has worked in the energy sector for more than four decades, with extensive experience in both the public and private sectors. Having advised dozens of companies, governments, and multilateral institutions on program and policy development. He has been a loyal advocate for energy stability and peace. He is also the author or co-author of numerous books and articles, and currently serves as CEO of Energy and Environment Holding, an independent consultancy based in Doha, Qatar.

 

 




السعودية – الصين: شراكة نفطية ترسم معالم عصر جديد في الطاقة

يمثل #التعاون النفطي بين السعودية والصين أحد أهم الشراكات الاستراتيجية في العصر الحديث، إذ يجمع بين أكبر مصدر للنفط في العالم وأكبر مستورد له. إلا أن هذا التعاون لا يقتصر على تجارة النفط وحدها، بل يشمل استثمارات مشتركة تهدف إلى تعزيز العلاقات الاقتصادية الثنائية، خصوصاً مع توسع “#أرامكو السعودية” في السوق الصينية.
منصة “مرجان”!
بلغت #الاستثمارات الصينية في السعودية 16,8 مليار دولار في عام 2023، في مقابل 1,5 مليار دولار في عام 2022، استناداً إلى بيانات بنك الإمارات دبي الوطني. في هذا الإطار، يوضح الدكتور خالد رمضان، الخبير النفطي ورئيس المركز الدولي للدراسات الاستراتيجية بالقاهرة، لـ “النهار” أن هذا ا#لتعاون النفطي السعودي – الصيني يؤثر إيجاباً في #أسواق الطاقة العالمية، “وما منصة ’مرجان‘ النفطية البحرية التابعة لأرامكو في الصين إلا ترجمة فعلية لهذا التعاون”، وستستخدم لزيادة الإنتاج السنوي لحقل المرجان النفطي إلى 24 مليون طن.
وتعد منصة “مرجان” أثقل منصة نفط وغاز بحرية في الصين مخصصة للأسواق الخارجية، وواحدة من أكبر المنصات في العالم، فهي أطول من مبنى مكون من 24 طابقًا، وتعادل مساحة سطحها 15 ملعب كرة سلة، ويمكنها جمع ونقل 24 مليون طن من النفط و7,4 مليارات متر مكعب من الغاز سنويًا.
شريكة في التنمية
يضيف رمضان: ” أبرمت أرامكو السعودية في عام 2023 صفقات بقيمة 8 مليارات دولار مع شركاء صينيين في قطاعي المنبع أي الاستكشاف والإنتاج، والمصب أي التكرير والتوزيع”. إلى ذلك، توظف نظرتها المتفائلة إلى إمكانات النمو في الصين على المدى الطويل، والفرص عالية الجودة، “من أجل توسيع عملياتها المتكاملة في قطاع الصناعات التحويلية الصينية، والتي يمثل الاستثمار فيها أهمية استراتيجية لنمو أعمال أرامكو في آسيا”.
يلفت رمضان إلى أن دور أرامكو يتجاوز الاستثمار، “لأنها تريد أن تكون شريكاً رئيسياً في التنمية الاقتصادية في الصين، والاستفادة من الفرص الجديدة التي تلوح في الأفق، من خلال شراكات استراتيجية تعزز وجودها في قطاع الصناعات التحويلية في الصين، بما فيها المواد الكيميائية والمواد المركبة المتقدمة والمواد غير المعدنية”.
وهكذا، تظل الصين محورية في استراتيجية أرامكو لتنويع محفظتها، لتشمل منتجات كيميائية أكثر تخصصًا وعالية القيمة، خصوصاً أن الصين تمثل 40 في المئة من مبيعات المنتجات الكيميائية العالمية.
تعزيز سلاسل التوريد
 
الصين ثاني أكبر اقتصاد في العالم، لذا تعد أكبر مستورد للنفط الخام، إذ تستهلك 14 مليون برميل يوميًا، تليها أوروبا بنحو 12,8 مليون برميل يوميًا. من ناحية أخرى، تعد السعودية أكبر مصدر للنفط الخام في العالم، تليها روسيا وكندا والنرويج ونيجيريا.
وانطلاقاً من هذا الواقع، “سهل أن نرى كيف يمنح توسيع التعاون النفطي بين الصين والسعودية الأسواق استقرارًا أكبر، ويعزز أمان سلاسل الإمداد النفطية، ويزيد فرص المنافسة في الأسواق العالمية”، بحسب ما يقول الخبير النفطي الدولي رودي بارودي.
ويضيف لـ”النهار”: “بالنسبة إلى السعوديين، سيضمنون شريكاً استراتيجياً طويل الأمد، لن يشتري النفط الخام فحسب، بل يستثمر أيضًا في سلسلة النفط اللاحقة، من المصافي إلى مصانع البتروكيماويات”. فأرامكو السعودية، أكبر شركة نفط في العالم، مستثمر كبير في مشروع “رونغشينغ سينوبيك فوجيان” للتكرير والبتروكيماويات (Rongsheng Sinopec Fujian Refining & Petrochemical venture)، وفي شركتين كبيرتين للبتروكيماويات هما “هينغلي” (Hengli Petrochemical) و”رونغشينغ” (Rongsheng Petrochemical). وتفاوض أرامكو لشراء 10 في المئة في “هينغلي”، وتسعى لإبرام صفقات مماثلة مع شركتين صينيتين أخريين، بعدما أبرمت صفقة منفصلة قيمتها 3,4 مليارات دولار لشراء حصة في شركة “رونغشينغ” في العام الماضي.
تحالف مؤثر
في الضفة الأخرى، استثمرت الصين مليارات الدولارات في السعودية، “حيث دخلت الشركات الصينية على خطّ مشاريع سعودية واسعة النطاق تركّزت في معظمها في التكرير والبنية الأساسية للغاز”، بحسب بارودي، الذي يضيف: “من شأن التعاون الطويل الأجل بين البلدين أن يعيد تشكيل أجزاء من المشهد النفطي والبتروكيماوي العالمي”.
ويؤكد الخبير النفطي الدولي أن أرامكو السعودية مستثمر كبير في صناعة الهيدروكربون في الصين، “والجانبان يركزان جهودهما على توسيع مصانع إنتاج السوائل وتحويلها إلى كيماويات في مصفاة الجبيل بالسعودية، وفي وحدة البتروكيماويات في نينغبو تشونجين بالصين”.
ويرى بارودي أن هذا التطوّر في العلاقة التصنيعية والتحويلية هو “نتاج علاقة استراتيجية ديبلوماسية سعودية – صينية، بدأت تحاك قبل أكثر من ثلاثة عقود، لا تقتصر على التجارة والاستثمارات المتبادلة، بل تتعداها إلى تحالف تنعكس آثاره على الاقتصاد العالمي، ما من شأنه أن يقلل من تأثير أي تباطؤ اقتصادي في المستقبل، وأن يحمي أسواق الهيدروكربون والبتروكيماويات”.
إلى جانب ذلك، يعزز التعاون بين السعوديين والصينيين التحول العالمي في مجال الطاقة، بفضل التوافق في الرؤى التنموية بين البلدين. فرؤية “السعودية 2030” ومبادرة “الحزام والطريق” الصينية تستهدفان إضافة المزيد من الاستثمارات في الطاقة المتجددة. ومن هنا، تستهدف أرامكو الاستفادة من الطلب المتزايد على الصناعات الخضراء الناشئة في الصين، “ليتطوّر التعاون الصيني – السعودي في مجال الطاقة من مجرد تعاون في مصادر طاقية تقليدية ليشمل قطاع الطاقة الجديدة”، بحسب رمضان.
شراكة تبادلية
يقول بارودي إن هذا التعاون يرتقي يوماً بعد يوم إلى مستوى الشراكة التبادلية، “فالفوائد متبادلة، ويعمل كل من الطرفين على تنويع إيراداته، وخفض إنفاقه الإنتاجي”، مذكراً بأن هذا التعاون “يدعم قدرة البلدين على تحقيق استقرار الاقتصاد العالمي، إذ يبشّر بتغييرات مالية ضخمة”.
فمحتمل جداً أن تبدأ السعودية بقبول اليوان الصيني، من بين عملات آسيوية أخرى، بوصفه عملة معتمدة في التبادلات النفطية. وهذا، برأي بارودي، يمنح الصين والسعودية مزايا اقتصادية كبيرة، خصوصاً أن المملكة جادة في مسيرة تنويع مصادر اقتصادها، والخروج من دائرة الاعتماد الكلي على الإيراد النفطي”.
يضيف بارودي: “إن تحققي المملكة هذا الهدف سيشكل نقطة تحوّل أساسيّة في سياستها الاقتصادية عموماً، والنفطية خصوصاً، إذ ستكمل تحررها من قيود البترو-دولار بعد اتفاقية مع الولايات المتحدة دامت 50 عاماً، وبعد دخولها مع الصين في مجموعة الـ ’بريكس‘ التي وضعت نصب عينيها الوقوف في وجه هيمنة الدولار الأميركي على الاقتصاد العالمي”.



China advocates shared future with Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. The commemorative conference of the 70th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence was held in Beijing on June 28. Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, attended the commemorative conference and delivered an important speech. He expounded on the essence of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and their relevance for our times, pointed the direction for building a community with a shared future for mankind amid major global transformation, and voiced a strong message of the Global South to work with people around the world for a better future.
70 years ago, in face of the scourge of hot wars and the confrontation of the Cold War, the Chinese leadership specified the Five Principles in their entirety for the first time, namely, mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. The Five Principles are included in the China-India and China-Myanmar joint statements, which jointly called for making them basic norms for state-to-state relations.
After 70 years of practice, the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence have set a historic benchmark for international relations and international rule of law, served as the prime guidance for the establishment and development of relations between countries with different social systems, remained a powerful rallying force behind the efforts of developing countries to pursue cooperation and self-strength through unity, and contributed historic wisdom to the reform and improvement of the international order.
Over the past 70 years, the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence have extended its reach from Asia to the world, transcending ideological differences, social system variations and uneven levels of development. They have become open, inclusive, and universally applicable basic norms for international relations and fundamental principles of international law, making indelible historic contributions to the cause of human progress.
Seventy years on, we are now in a volatile and unstable era where changes and turbulence are intertwined. At this historic moment when mankind has to choose between peace and war, prosperity and recession, unity and confrontation, the spirit of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence has become more appealing rather than obsolete. Bearing the intertwined destinies of countries and the shared and fundamental interests of all peoples in mind, President Xi Jinping put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind, providing a new answer to what kind of world to build and how to build it. This is the best way to inherit, advance and enrich the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence under new circumstances.
From the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence to building a community with a shared future for mankind, China has remained consistent in the exploration for new ways of state-to-state relations, remained committed to our responsibility in upholding world peace and development, and remained steadfast in pursuing a just and equitable international order.
Over the past decades, the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence conformed to the trend for national independence and liberation in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and answered the very important question of how to handle state-to-state relations. Going forward, the Chinese initiative of building a community with a shared future for mankind has become an international consensus. The beautiful vision has been put into productive actions. It is moving the world to a bright future of peace, security, prosperity and progress.
Of all the forces in the world, the Global South stands out with a strong momentum. Standing at a new historical starting point, the great cause of building a community with a shared future for mankind requires the Global South to stay ahead of the historical trend. The Global South should be more open and more inclusive, jointly maintain peace and stability, promote open development, construct global governance, and advocate for the exchange among civilisations.
Both China and Qatar are important members of the Global South. In recent years, under the strategic guidance of President Xi Jinping and His Highness the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, China-Qatar relations have developed rapidly and comprehensively, serving as a model for countries with different social systems to firmly adhere to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, engage in friendly exchanges, and foster mutually beneficial co-operation.
Both China and Qatar are the staunch forces for peace, dedicated to promoting peaceful settlement of international disputes, and participating constructively in the political settlement of international and regional hotspot issues. They are core driving forces for open development, committed to restoring development as the central international agenda item with clear and feasible national development visions and goals, reinvigorating global partnerships for development, and deepening South-South co-operation as well as North-South dialogue.
China and Qatar are also construction teams of global governance and advocates for exchange among civilisations. Both countries actively participate in reforming and developing the global governance system and contribute to enhancing inter-civilisation communication and dialogue.
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Qatar strategic partnership. China wishes to work with Qatar to take this opportunity to strengthen the political foundation of bilateral relations, elevate the mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries to a new level.
China stands ready to join hands with Qatar and other countries in the world to overcome challenges, achieve shared prosperity, create an open, inclusive, clean and beautiful world of lasting peace, universal security, and shared prosperity, build a community with a shared future for mankind, and open up a brighter future for humanity.




‘Prerequisites for peace’: Expert applauds Skylakakis for endorsing energy transition policies that ‘open the way to dialogue and cooperation’

ATHENS, July 7, 2024 Greece: Energy and Environment Minister Theodoros Skylakakis is on the right track with his approach to Greece’s energy transition plans, a noted regional expert says.

“He’s got the right perspective,” industry veteran and author Roudi Baroudi said after Skylakakis spoke at this week’s Athens Energy Summit. “He understands that although the responsibility to reduce carbon emissions is universal, the best policy decisions don’t come in ‘one-size-fits-all’.”

Baroudi, who has more than four decades in the field and currently serves as CEO of Doha independent consultancy Energy and Environment Holding, made his comments on the sidelines of the forum, where he also was a speaker.

In his remarks, Skylakakis expressed confidence that Greece’s increasing need to store electricity – as intermittent renewables generate a growing share of electricity – would drive sufficient investment in battery capacity, without the need for subsidies. Among other comments, he also stressed the need for European Union policymakers to account for the fact that member-states currently face the cost s of both limiting future climate change AND mitigating the impacts that are already under way.

“Every country is different in terms of how it can best fight climate change. Each one has its own set of natural resources, industrial capacity, financial wherewithal, and other variables. What works in one situation might be a terrible idea elsewhere. That’s crucial and Skylakakis gets it,” Baroudi said. “He also understands that an effective transition depends on carefully considered policies, policies that attract investment to where it can not only have the greatest impact today, but also maximizes the impact of tomorrow’s technologies and tomorrow’s partnerships.”

“What Skylakakis is saying and doing fits in nicely with many of the same ideas I spoke about,” Baroudi added. “When he talks about heavier reliance on wind farms, the added storage capacity is a foundation that will help derive a fuller return from each and every turbine. When he highlights the utility – pun intended – of power and gas interconnections with other countries and regions, these are the prerequisites for peace, the building blocks for cooperation and dialogue.”

In his own speech shortly after Skylakakis’, Baroudi told the audience at the capital’s Hotel Grande Bretagne that countries in the Eastern Mediterranean should work together to increase cleaner energy production and reduce regional tensions.

“Surely there is a method by which we can re-establish the same common ground enshrined in the wake of World Wars I and II, recall the same common interests and identify new ones, and work together to achieve common goals, just as the UN Charter implores us to,” he said.

Baroudi advises companies, governments, and international institutions on energy policy and is an award-winning advocate for efforts to promote peace through dialogue and diplomacy. He told his audience that with both climate change and mounting geopolitical tensions posing threats to people around the world, policymakers needed to think outside the usual boxes.

In this way, he argued, “we might develop the mutual trust which alone can create a safer, happier, and better world for our children and grandchildren.”

“Consider the possibilities if Greece, Türkiye, and Cyprus became de facto – or de jure – partners in a pipeline carrying East Med gas to consumers in Bulgaria, Romania, and Italy,” he said. “Imagine a future in which Israeli and Lebanese gas companies were similarly – but independently – reliant on the same Cypriot LNG plant for 10-20%, or even more, of their respective countries’ GDPs.”

He also envisioned bilateral cooperation scenarios between Greece and Turkey and Syria and Turkey, as well as a regional interconnection that would provide backup energy for multiple coastal states.

“Instead of accepting certain ideas as permanently impossible, we ought to be thinking ahead and laying the groundwork,” Baroudi said. “For Greece and Türkiye – as for other pairs of coastal states in the region – a good starting point would be to emulate the Maritime Boundary Agreement agreed to by Lebanon and Israel in 2022.”

Stressing the potential for cooperation to address both energy requirements and the stability required for stronger growth and development, Baroudi – whose books include a 2023 volume about the Lebanon-Israel deal and a forthcoming one urging other East Med countries to do the same – called on the EU to take up the challenge.

“Using dialogue and diplomacy to expand energy cooperation would benefit not just the countries of the East Med but also the entire European Union and much of its surrounding ‘neighborhood’,” he told an audience of energy professionals and key government officials. “That level of promise more than merits the attention of Brussels, the allocation of support resources, and even the designation of a dedicated point-person tasked with facilitating the necessary contacts and negotiations.”

“This is how we need to be thinking if we want to get where we need to go,” Baroudi said. “Instead of allowing ourselves to be discouraged by the presence of obstacles, we need to be investigating new routes that go around them, strengthen the rule of law – especially human rights law – as a basis for the international system, and promote lasting peace among all nations. Only then can we declare victory over what the 18th-century Scottish poet Robert Burns called ‘man’s inhumanity to man’.”




Saudi Aramco awards $25bn in contracts for gas expansion

Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil producer, has awarded contracts worth more than $25bn for the second phase of the expansion of its Jafurah gas field and the third phase of expanding its main gas network.

The development of the Jafurah field, which is estimated to hold 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, is expected to cost $100bn and boost the state energy firm’s gas production by more than 60 per cent by 2030.

“These contract awards demonstrate our firm belief in the future of gas as an important energy source, as well as a vital feedstock for downstream industries,” said Amin H. Nasser, Aramco president & CEO.

“The scale of our ongoing investment at Jafurah and the expansion of our master gas system underscores our intention to further integrate and grow our gas business to meet anticipated rising demand.”

Aramco awarded 16 contracts, worth a combined total of around $12.4bn, for phase two development at Jafurah. This phase will include the construction of gas compression facilities, pipelines, the expansion of the Jafurah gas plant, gas processing trains, utilities, sulfur, and export facilities.

The expansion includes the construction of new riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation facilities in Jubail, including NGL fractionation trains, utilities, storage, and export facilities.

The state-energy giant also awarded 15 lump sum turnkey contracts worth approximately $8.8bn to kick off the phase three expansion of the master gas system. The expansion will increase the size of the network and raise its total capacity by an additional 3.15 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscfd) by 2028 through the installation of around 4,000km of pipelines and 17 new gas compression trains.

Furthermore, Aramco awarded an additional 23 gas rig contracts worth $2.4bn, two-directional drilling contracts worth $612m, and 13 well tie-in contracts at Jafurah, for a total of $1.63bn.

Aramco’s LNG ambitions

Saudi Arabia is working on developing its unconventional gas reserves, which require advanced extraction methods such as those used in the shale gas industry.

Aramco signed 40 corporate procurement agreements worth $6bn with local suppliers in February as the state-owned energy giant seeks to develop the country’s energy services sector while boosting its localisation programme.

The agreements cover the supply of a range of products comprising strategic commodities, such as instrumentation, electrical, and drilling equipment.

Meanwhile, an additional 15 trillion standard cubic feet of gas (scfd) were proven at Aramco’s Jafurah field in February, adding significant volumes to the kingdom’s proven gas and condensate reserves.

The company estimates that Jafurah’s reserves have reached 229 trillion cubic feet of gas and 75 billion barrels of condensates. Jafurah is the country’s largest unconventional non-oil-associated gas field and reportedly the biggest shale gas development outside of the US.

Aramco is expanding its portfolio into LNG at a time when global demand for the fuel has surged, particularly in Europe, which is replacing reduced pipeline supplies from Russia. It forayed into the global LNG market last September by acquiring a minority stake in EIG Partners’ MidOcean Energy in a deal valued at $500m.

The state-energy giant signed non-binding agreements with two US energy firms Sempra and NextDecade, for the supply of 5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) and 1.2 of mtpa LNG, respectively, for 20 years.




‘Saudi Aramco in LNG talks with US Tellurian, NextDecade’

Reuters

London

Oil giant Aramco is in talks with US firms Tellurian and NextDecade on two separate LNG projects as the Saudi firm seeks to boost its gas trading and production, three sources close to the talks told Reuters.

US gas production has boomed over the past decade with oil majors and Aramco’s rivals competing to build several projects to export gas to Europe and Asia.

The state energy firm is in talks with Tellurian to buy a stake in its 27.6mn metric tonne per annum (mtpa) Driftwood LNG plant near Lake Charles, Louisiana.

Aramco officials visited the site three times last month — including together with executives from Australia’s Woodside on one of those occasions, said the sources who declined to be identified as talks are not public. Aramco is also in talks with US LNG firm NextDecade for a long-term gas purchase agreement from a proposed fifth processing unit at its $18bn Rio Grande facility.

Aramco declined to comment. Tellurian said it does not comment on market speculation. Woodside said it continuously assesses organic and inorganic growth opportunities but declined further comment. NextDecade did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment.

Aramco is seeking to strengthen its position in the LNG market, which is set to grow by 50% by 2030, especially in the US, where LNG capacity is set to almost double over the next four years.

Tellurian has spent years and hundreds of millions of dollars on trying to finance and build the Driftwood plant.

Last fall, Tellurian warned investors that continued losses and dwindling cash reserves might not be enough within a year to cover operating and debt costs.

Aramco is one of the world’s largest oil producers and top exporter, pumping nearly 10% of the world’s crude supply.

Aramco made its first LNG investment abroad when it bought a stake in US MidOcean Energy for $500mn last year.

In March, Reuters reported that Aramco was in talks to invest in Sempra Infrastructure’s Port Arthur project in Texas.

It is also competing with Shell to buy the assets of Temasek-owned LNG trading firm Pavilion Energy.




Asia continues to be ‘principal market’ for Qatar LNG; accounts for 72% of total supplies in 2022, says GECF

Principal market for Qatari LNG continues to be Asia, accounting for 72% of its total supplies in 2022, Doha-based Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) said in a report.
Qatar accounted for 16% of European LNG imports in 2022, GECF said in its ‘Global Gas Outlook 2050’.
In 2022, net gas exports from the Middle East amounted to 139 bcm. Projections indicate a significant surge in overall net exports to 292 bcm by 2050.
In 2022, the Middle East contributed 96mn tonnes to global LNG exports, representing 25% of the total global LNG exports.
Qatar secured the top position as the leading global LNG exporter, shipping 79mn tonnes, while Oman and the UAE exported 11mn tonnes and 5.5mn tonnes respectively.
“Notably, Qatar supplied 16% of European LNG imports. However, Europe only represented 24% of Qatar’s overall LNG exports, while the principal market for Qatari LNG continued to be Asia, accounting for 72% of the total,” GECF said.
According to the forum, the “primary force propelling natural gas exports” from the Middle East is set to be growth in LNG supplies, notably led by Qatar.
The upward trajectory of Qatar’s position as a leading global LNG exporter in 2022 indicates a growing momentum towards additional expansions or advancements post-2030s and 2040s following the North Field expansion projects.
With ambitions to increase its current capacity of 77mn tonnes per year by 64%, Qatar aims to reach 126mn tonnes per year through the North Field expansion by 2028.
By 2050, LNG exports from the Middle East will reach 205mn tonnes, largely due to the expansion efforts in Qatar. Anticipated long-term LNG imports are predicted to reach 16mn tonnes by 2050.
Consequently, the long-term outlook suggests an expansion of LNG net exports to reach 189mn tonnes. Primary destination for Middle Eastern LNG is expected to continue being Asia, with that region set to have an even more significant role in the long run.
By 2050, GECF noted, the Asia Pacific region is poised to receive 186mn tonnes of LNG sourced from the Middle East, constituting over 90% of all LNG exported from that region.
The region possesses 101mn tonnes per year of liquefaction capacity, primarily dominated by Qatar’s 77mn tonnes per year. Plans are in progress from 2022 to 2050 to add approximately 130mn tonnes per year of extra LNG liquefaction capacity to the region, with Qatar leading expansion efforts.
The utilisation rate of this increased LNG liquefaction capacity is projected to be high, surpassing 90% by 2050, GECF said.




What’s next after new Energean gas discovery in Israel’s Karish North Field? Expert underlines need for Lebanon to lay groundwork for maritime boundary deals with Cyprus and Syria

DOHA/BEIRUT – By Myriam Balaa: Israel’s latest undersea gas find further demonstrates that Lebanon should be doing everything it can to pave the way for its own offshore oil and gas industry, specifically by settling its maritime boundaries with Cyprus and Syria, one of the region’s foremost authorities on energy development says.

In an interview following Greek/Israeli-owned Energean’s announcement of a second discovery in the Karish North Field adjacent to Lebanese waters, energy consultant Roudi Baroudi said the news was actually good for Lebanon.

“It’s no surprise that they found more. It just underscores what we’ve known for several years: we haven’t located all the resources tucked away beneath the seabed of the East Med, including deposits awaiting discovery off Lebanon’s coast,” said Baroudi, who has more than four decades of experience in the energy business. “The problem is that Lebanon’s ongoing political quagmire has caused significant delays in the development of the country’s nascent offshore hydrocarbon sector.”

Baroudi, who currently serves as CEO of Energy and Environment Holding, an independent consultancy based in Doha, Qatar, confirmed that the new find seemed to be located very close to the maritime boundary line (MBL) agreed to by Lebanon and Israel in October 2022. That agreement, reached after years-long mediation by the United States, was a “necessary step”, he explained, but “it alone has not been sufficient to fully activate Lebanon’s oil and gas industry.”

Asked how Beirut should proceed at this juncture, he stressed the importance of moving ahead with efforts to finalize Lebanon’s MBLs with Cyprus and Syria, “which would achieve full international recognition of Lebanon’s Excusive Economic Zone, thereby reducing the risk for the big energy companies whose assistance we need in order to fully explore and exploit our offshore resources.”

“We’ve already negotiated the different equidistance points for a completed MBL agreement with Cyprus, we just haven’t ratified it,” Baroudi explained. “That means we just have to adjust a few coordinates in order to set a trijunction point where the Lebanese, Cypriot, and Israeli MBLs intersect at sea. And setting that trijunction in the south will automatically simplify the process of setting another in the north for Lebanon-Cyprus-Syria”.

He also played down claims in some circles that a significant gap exists between the Lebanon-Cyprus line and the Cyprus-Israel line, making it more difficult to set a trijunction.

“There is a gap, of course, but it’s really quite small,” Baroudi told the reporters “The proof of this is in the delineation of the offshore blocks issued by both Lebanon and Cyprus about a decade ago. On all the international blocks maps of the area, even including the ones issued by the oil and gas companies, which focus on accurate portrayals of acreage, there is no overlap. In fact, virtually all of the line between Lebanese and Cypriot blocks precisely tracks almost a MBL line agreed which Nicosia and Beirut agreed to in the unratified agreement. The difference at the southern end of the trijunction point is very, very small.”

The smaller the gap, he explained, the easier it should be to finish defining Lebanon’s EEZ.

“Since the lines are so close, setting a trijunction – the point where the Lebanese, Cypriot, and Israeli boundaries intersect – should be relatively easy,” he said. “In addition, agreeing that trijunction in the south would automatically simplify the process of setting one in the north for Lebanon-Cyprus-Syria. And keep in mind: Lebanon has strong & friendly relations with both Cyprus and Syria, so these negotiations will be a lot friendlier than the ones with Israel, which had to be pursued indirectly via American mediation.”

When asked about how any new diplomatic efforts might be affected by the long-running political paralysis in Beirut, where the presidency has been vacant since late 2022 because rival parties in Parliament can’t agree on a successor to former President Michel Aoun, Baroudi said the quagmire only accentuated the need for action.

“Right now, Lebanon can’t officially ratify into a new MBL agreement with either Cyprus or Syria because it requires a presidential signature, but that doesn’t stop us from carrying out the necessary talks,” he said. “In fact, we should be rushing to get all of this settled now so that when we finally fill the vacancy at Baabda Palace, we’ll have everything ready for the new president’s signature.”

In addition to settling its maritime boundaries, Baroudi said Lebanon also had another reason to re-engage with neighboring countries.

“It’s been almost ten years since Cyprus proposed a unitization agreement (joint development agreement) with Lebanon for joint production from any deposits that straddle their shared MBL,” he recalled, “and the Lebanese paralysis has kept it from happening. We need to revive this process and get a deal in place. That way, again, once we have a president in office, we’ll be ready to hit the ground running, with no further delays, and start collecting the badly needed gas revenues”.




US gas glut gets hedge funds ultra bearish

LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) – Portfolio investors have become extremely bearish about the outlook for U.S. gas prices, even though prices have already fallen to their lowest level in real terms since futures began trading in 1990.
Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 399 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts linked to prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on Feb. 20.

Fund managers have been net sellers in each of the most recent five weeks, selling 2,085 bcf since Jan. 16, according to position reports filed with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
As a result, the combined position has been reduced to a net short of 1,675 bcf (3rd percentile for all weeks since 2010) down from a net long of 410 bcf (42nd percentile) in the middle of January.
The gas market has been chronically oversupplied in recent months, with inventories 436 bcf (+21% or +1.26 standard deviations) above the prior 10-year seasonal average on Feb. 16.

The surplus has swelled consistently since the start of the winter heating season on Oct. 1, when it was just 64 bcf (+2% or +0.24 standard deviations).
Chartbook: Gas and oil positions, opens new tab
Exceptionally strong El Niño conditions over the Pacific ensured temperatures have been mostly above average across the major population centres of the northern United States.
Domestic gas production has continued to increase, in spite of the relatively low prices, adding to the burgeoning surplus of gas in storage.

The rig count for gas has actually increased marginally since September 2023 as producers have been unresponsive to falling prices until the last few weeks.
In addition, more associated gas is being produced as a co-product of drilling for oil, where prices are close to the long-term inflation-adjusted average and drilling rates are steady.
From a purely positioning perspective, the balance of risks must lie to the upside, with real prices at multi-decade lows and lots of short positions that must eventually be repurchased.
Short positions have only ever been greater in the first quarter of 2020, when stocks were at record levels and the economy was bracing for the arrival of the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic.
So there is potential for a huge short-covering rally if and when the news flow becomes more positive and inventories start to erode.
But hedge fund managers have tried and failed to identify the turning point three times in the last twelve months and been forced to retreat each time.
Bloated gas stocks in Europe and Japan after the price spike of 2021/22 will make it hard for the market to rebalance via increased exports.
Many analysts now expect the rebalancing to be postponed until the winter of 2024/25 with prices likely to remain suppressed until nearer then.

PETROLEUM

Investors continued to add to their position in petroleum-related futures and options over the seven days ending on Feb. 16, but at a slower rate than in previous weeks.
Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 17 million barrels in the six most important petroleum-linked futures and options contracts.
All the buying was concentrated in NYMEX and ICE WTI (+29 million barrels) with small sales in Brent (-4 million), European gas oil (-4 million), U.S. diesel (-4 million) and U.S. gasoline (-1 million).
Even after the recent buying, positions in WTI remain the most bearish of any of the major oil contracts, weighed down by the continued rise in domestic oil production, even as OPEC restricts Middle East supplies.
The net position in NYMEX and ICE WTI of 109 million barrels is still in only the 8th percentile for all weeks since 2013.
That compares with net positions in Brent, gasoline and the distillates contracts all between the 60th and 70th percentiles.
WTI buying seems to have been motivated by unwinding previous bearish short positions (-17 million barrels) and cautious initiation of new longs (+13 million).
Crude inventories around the NYMEX WTI delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma are still 14 million barrels (-32% or -1.14 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average. Despite an extended shutdown of BP’s refinery at Whiting in Indiana, Cushing stocks have increased only slightly in the last two weeks, underscoring the risk of a squeeze on deliverable supplies.
With positioning so bearish, the balance of risks lies to the upside; some fund managers have begun to cut short positions and get long accordingly.



Ras laffan petchem complex to reinforce qatar’s position in global petrochemical industry

Ras Laff an petchem complex to reinforce Qatar’s position in global petrochemical industry.

Qatar’s strong position in the global petrochemical industry will be further enhanced with the $6bn Ras Laffan Petrochemical Complex, one of the largest in the world, will start production by the end of 2026.
By then, Qatar’s overall petrochemical production capacity is estimated to touch 14mn tonnes a year.
The Ras Laffan Petrochemical Complex is Qatar Energy’s largest investment ever in Qatar’s petrochemical sector, and marks :u1 important milestone in the country’s downstream expansion strategy.
The petrochemical complex will not only facilitate further expansion in Qatar’s downstream and petrochemical sectors, but will also reinforce the country’s integrated position as a major global player in the upstream, LNG and downstream sectors.
The Ras Laffan Petrochemicals complex consists of an ethane cracker “1th a capacity of 2.lmn tonnes of ethylene per year. The 435 -acre project site also includes two polyethylene trains with h a combined output of l.7mn tonnes per year of high- density polyethylene (HOPE) polymer products. His Highness the Amir Sheikh ‘Thmim bin Hamad al-Thani laid the fow1dation stone for the Ras Laffan Petrochemical Complex on February 19.
QatarEnergy has joined hands with Chevron Phillips Chemical Company (CPChem) on the projected and created a joint venture, in which QatarEnergy will own a 70% equity share, and CPChem 30% stake.

In a few years, the Ras Laffan petrochemicals complex will help meet the rising global demand for high-density polyethylene, when the largest ethane cracker in the Middle East and one of the largest in the world begins production.
Polyethylene is used in the production of durable goods like pipe for natural gas and water delivery and recreational products such as kayaks and coolers. It is also used in packaging applications to protect and preserve food and keep medical supplies sterile.

The facility will be constructed with modern, energy-saving technology and use ethane for feedstock, which along with other measures, is expected to result in lower greenhouse gas emissions than similar global facilities.
The integrated olefins and polyethylene facility will be utilising “state-of-the -art design and technology” during its construction and operation to promote energy efficiency.

It is important to stress the unique environmental attributes of this world· scale complex. It will have lower waste and greenhouse gas emissions, when compared with similar global facilities.

The Ras Laffan Petrochemicals Complex will be utilising “state-of-the-art design and technology” during its construction and operation to promote energy efficiency.

The world-class construction, operation, and technology standards planned at the complex are all designed to ensure energy savings, and significant reduction of emissions and hydrocarbon waste compared with similar global facilities. HE the Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad bin Sherida al-Kaabi said: “Our two companies (Qatar Energy and Chevron Phillips Chemical Company) are making sure we buy and
in1plement the best technology available to reduce emissions. In the last 20 years or so, there has been a huge leap in emissions reduction and energy use. Wherever we can recycle, we will;’ Ras Laffan Petrochemical Complex will also have multiplier effects on Qatar’s economy as it is expected to generate significant economic benefits for the country including increased tax revenue and foreign investment.